产业结构变动与经济增长关系的统计研究

发布时间：2019-03-19 18:02

【摘要】： 产业结构变动与经济增长互相依赖，相互促进。在一定条件下，产业结构变动是经济增长的基础，是促进经济增长的主要因素；而不同速度的经济增长又对产业结构有不同的要求，即经济的增长将导致产业结构发生相应的变动。现代经济增长的过程，其实质是经济增长与产业结构变动相互联系、相互促进，不断发展的辩证过程。由此，就产业结构变动对经济增长的影响，国外学者作了不少研究，己有很丰富的研究成果。随着我国经济体制改革的深化，我国学者极其关注经济增长和经济结构的问题，同时对我国产业结构及其变动进行了一些有益的探索。但在总体上，仍处于介绍西方有关理论的层面上，或者仅考察产业结构变动，或者专门考察经济增长，而把两者结合起来进行系统研究尚少见，特别是紧密结合我国实际对产业结构变动与经济增长关系进行实证研究的也不多见。本文按照这一思路，在借鉴国内外学者已有研究成果的基础上，从产业结构变动与经济增长的关系入手，结合中国产业结构及经济增长的实际情况，运用各种分析方法对我国产业结构变动及其对经济增长的影响进行实证分析，力图寻找适当我国国情的产业结构优化道路，从而推进经济持续地快速增长。本文除导言以外共分五章：第一章，阐述产业结构变动与经济增长的关系。在经济增长与结构转变的关系问题上，一直存在两种不同的观点。传统的经济增长理论认为，在竞争均衡的假设下，经济增长是资本积累、劳动力增加和技术变化长期作用的结果。现代经济增长理论却认为，经济增长是生产结构转变的一个方面，而结构转变通常是非均衡的条件下发生的。因此，劳动和资本从生产率较低的部门向生产率较高的部门转移能够加速经济增长，即结构效率是经济增长的一个源泉。本章首先界定产业结构的内涵及特征，通过对传统经济增长理论的反思，阐释了现代经济增长的本质要求就是产业结构与经济增长协调，从而论证了产业结构变动与经济增长的相互依赖相互促进的辩证统一关系。第二章，剖析各主要经济变量之间的作用机理。从而将产业结构变动与经济增长的关系，从感性认识上升到理性认识。本章首先在定性分析基础上，引入数量分析方法，展开对产业结构变动对经济增长的影响进行定量分析，，然后深入经WP=6济增长函数内部，将索洛增长方程中的“余值”进行分解，提出其中的含有结构效益的测算模型，从而解析了长期以来“余值”作为技术进步对经济增长的度量这样一个理论误区。第三章，我国产业结构变动的实证分析。产业结构具有动态性。任何现有产业结构都是在原有经济增长的基础上发展而形成的。本章从经济增长对产业结构的影响入手，即把产业结构视为经济增长的函数，考察产业结构在经济发展过程中的演变规律，本章着重考察我国产业结构变动的一般态势和特殊表现，勾勒出我国产业结构的基本轮廊。采用静态、动态及比较分析法，通过把我国产业结构变动趋势与产业结构变动一般趋势的对比分析，揭示我国产业结构现阶段的特点及演进过程中所存在的问题。第四章，我国产业结构变动对经济增长影响的统计分析。产业结构除了变动的高级化趋势，还有其变动的合理化趋势。产业结构高级化和合理化统称为产业结构优化。合理的产业结构并不是几个产业部门的简单组合，而是能发挥较高的经济效益和有利于经济发展的有机组合。因此，评价产业结构优劣和合理与否，需要通过一些统计指标对产业结构变动的总体效益水平进行测算和评价。本章从产业结构变动对经济增长的影响入手，即把产业结构作为内生变量，视经济增长为产业结构变动的函数，选择多种统计指标、采用各种统计分析方法，考察产业结构变动对经济增长的作用力。第五章，在以上分析基础上探讨“十五”期间我国产业结构调整的战略及对策。本章结合我国国情，全面、系统地阐述了推进我国产业结构优化升级的战略，提出了非均衡增长、资源倾斜配置和协调发展及信息化与工业化同时推进，实现跨越式发展的总体战略思路。同时，紧密联系实际提出了产业结构调整必须与扩大和培育内需这一宏观经济目标，又要与加入WTO联系起来为导向，创造性地提出了一系列比较有价值的产业结构调整对策，为推进我国产业结构优化和宏观经济运行提供可操作的理论依据。本文是从产业结构变动与经济增长关系入手进行的统计研究。为此采用了定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法。体现在对产业结构变动与经济增长的相互关系进行了定性描述，在此基础上，进而对产业结构变动对经济增长的影响机理WP=7进行了深入的数量经济分析，深刻地揭示了各主要经济变量之间的数理关系。本文研究方法既有规范分析又有实证分析，且以实证分析为主要研究方法。具体体现在第三章中，对我国产业结构变动的基本趋势，和其与国际比较进行的实证分析。本文是从统计角度进行研究，因此本文运用了多种统计分析方法，并进行了大量的统计数据分析及计算。主要体现在第三章及第四章有关统计实证分析中及第四章的统计指标选择及其测算过程中。
[Abstract]:The change of industrial structure and economic growth depend on each other and promote each other. Under certain conditions, the change of industrial structure is the basis of economic growth, which is the main factor to promote the economic growth, and the economic growth of different speed has different requirements on the industrial structure, that is, the growth of the economy will lead to the corresponding change of the industrial structure. The process of modern economic growth is the dialectical process of economic growth and industrial structure change, mutual promotion and development. As a result, the influence of the change of industrial structure on the growth of the economy, foreign scholars have made a lot of research, and have rich research results. With the deepening of China's economic system reform, Chinese scholars pay close attention to the problems of economic growth and economic structure, and also make some useful exploration on the industrial structure and the change of our country. But in the whole, it is still in the aspect of the introduction of the western theory, or only the change of the industrial structure, or the special investigation of the economic growth, and the combination of the two is still rare, In particular, there are few empirical studies on the relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth in China. Based on the research results of the domestic and foreign scholars, this paper starts with the relationship between the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth, and combines the industrial structure of China and the relationship between the industrial structure and the economic growth. Based on the actual situation of economic growth, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the changes of the industrial structure and the effect on the economic growth of our country by using various analytical methods, and tries to find the optimal path of the industrial structure with the appropriate national conditions, so as to promote the economic growth The economy continues to grow rapidly. This article in addition to that introduction, it is divided into five chapters: A chapter on the relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth. The traditional economic growth theory holds that economic growth is the capital product under the assumption that the competition is balanced. The result of long-term effects of fatigue, labor and technology changes. Modern economic growth theory is of the view that economic growth is an aspect of the transformation of production structure As a result, the shift in structure is usually under the condition of non-equilibrium. Therefore, the transfer of labor and capital from a lower productivity sector to a higher productivity sector can speed up the The economic growth is a source of economic growth. In this chapter, the connotation and characteristics of the industrial structure are first defined, and the modern economic growth is explained through the reflection of the traditional economic growth theory. The long essential requirement is the coordination between the industrial structure and the economic growth, so as to demonstrate the change of the industrial structure and the change of the economic growth. The dialectical unity of the interdependence and mutual promotion of economic growth. In the second chapter, the mechanism of action between the main economic variables is analyzed. In this chapter, based on the qualitative analysis, the quantitative analysis method is introduced, the effect of the change of industrial structure on the economic growth is analyzed quantitatively, and then the value of the Soilo growth equation is further analyzed through the internal of the WP = 6 economic growth function. In this paper, the structure-benefit-based measurement model is put forward to analyze the long-term "total value". " as a technological advance for economic growth such a theoretical error as the metric of the metric The third chapter, the empirical analysis of the change of the industrial structure in China The industrial structure is dynamic. Any existing industrial structure is formed on the basis of the original economic growth. This chapter starts with the influence of economic growth on the industrial structure, that is, the industrial structure is regarded as a function of economic growth, and the industrial structure is examined. in that course of economic development, This chapter focuses on the general situation and special performance of China's industrial structure change, and outlines the basic wheel corridor of our country's industrial structure. A Comparative Analysis of the General Trend of the Structure Change and the Present Stage of China's Industrial Structure The problems in the process of evolution. The Statistics of the Influence of the Changes of the Industrial Structure on the Economic Growth in China In addition to the high-level trend of the change, the industrial structure has a reasonable tendency to change. The higher-level industrial structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure are collectively referred to as the excellent industrial structure The rational industrial structure is not a simple combination of several industrial departments, but it can play a higher economic benefit and the organic combination of economic development Therefore, it is necessary to measure and evaluate the overall benefit level of industrial structure change through some statistical indicators. As a function of the change of the industrial structure, a variety of statistical indicators are selected, and various statistical analysis methods are used to study the economic growth of the industrial structure change Chapter 5, on the basis of the above analysis, discusses the strategy and countermeasure of China's industrial structure adjustment during the "XV" period. This paper systematically expounds the strategy of promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in China, and puts forward the overall strategic thinking of non-equilibrium growth, resource inclination configuration and coordination development and the simultaneous promotion of information and industrialization, so as to realize the leap-forward development. At the same time, it is closely related to the reality. in that inter of the macro-economic goal of the adjustment of the industrial structure and the expansion and cultivation of domestic demand, In addition, we should contact the WTO to guide and creatively put forward a series of comparison The more valuable industrial structure adjustment measures to promote the industrial structure of our country The paper, based on the relationship between the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth, adopts the research method of the combination of the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, which is reflected in the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth. The relationship between the economic growth and the economic growth is described. On the basis of this, the change of the industrial structure is further The impact mechanism of economic growth, WP = 7, has carried out an in-depth quantitative and economic analysis, and deeply reveals the main economic variables. The research methods of this paper have both normative and empirical analysis, and the empirical analysis is the main research. The research method, which is embodied in the third chapter, is the basic trend of the change of the industrial structure in China, and the real relationship with the international comparison.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F121.3;F061.2

【引证文献】