我国贸易隐含碳估算及影响因素分析
发布时间：2019-04-26 06:30
【摘要】：为缓解全球气候变暖,世界主要国家依照《京都议定书》和《联合国气候变化框架公约》等国际公约展开了二氧化碳等温室气体的减排与控制活动。当前的国际公约对于减排责任划分主要是基于领土责任的核算方法,即按照“生产者责任”原则,主张将国际贸易中的排放责任完全归于生产国。然而,在经济全球化、贸易国际化的大环境下,商品的生产和消费往往是分离的。发达国家通过国际贸易有可能实现本土的碳减排目标,但由于贸易的“隐含碳”导致商品的主要生产国的碳排放量增加,进而可能导致全球的“碳泄漏”。我国是世界上的最大加工工厂,承担了大量由贸易伙伴消费引起的二氧化碳排放。因此,对我国贸易隐含碳的总量、流向以及影响因素进行量化,分析我国贸易隐含碳变化规律及其影响因素的贡献率,将有助于明确我国在国际社会中的减排责任,提高节能减排政策的科学性和可操作性。 本文基于连续化非竞争型投入产出模型,分析了我国1997～2010年的生产隐含碳(QP)和消费隐含碳(QC)的变化规律。两者在1997～2010年间都呈增长态势并且历年QP都高于QC,QP由1997年的30.2亿吨增长到2010年的70.9亿吨,QC从1997年的25.4亿吨增长到2010年的57.3亿吨。本文通过构建虚拟进口国技术系数,计算了我国进出口贸易隐含碳及与主要贸易伙伴间的进出口贸易隐含碳变化规律。历年出口隐含碳QE均大于进口隐含碳QM,QE从7.0亿吨增加19.8亿吨,QE与QP之比在21.6%-36.8%之间；QM从1997年的1.6亿吨增加到2010年的6.3亿吨,QM与QP之比在5.3%-12.3%之间。1997～2010年,我国向美国、日本和欧盟出口产品产生的隐含碳占我国当年出口隐含碳的45.0%-72.8%,从美日欧进口产品产生的隐含碳占当年进口隐含碳的16.7%～25.4%。我国的出口隐含碳主要集中在重化工业部门和劳动密集型部门,而进口隐含碳主要集中在技术密集型部门。 此外,本文采用结构分解模型,分析了我国1997～2010年进出口贸易隐含碳的影响因素,将出口隐含碳影响因素分解为单位就业人口出口量因素、就业结构因素、就业总人数因素、投入结构因素、能源强度因素和碳排放系数因素,结果表明：单位就业人口出口量因素是出口隐含碳增加的主要原因；能源强度因素是出口隐含碳减少的主要因素。将进口隐含碳影响因素分解为进口总量因素、进口结构因素、虚拟进口国技术系数因素、投入结构因素、能源强度因素和碳排放系数因素,结果表明：进口总量因素是进口隐含碳增加的主要原因；能源强度因素是进口隐含碳减少的主要因素。
[Abstract]:In order to alleviate global warming, the major countries in the world have carried out emission reduction and control activities of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide according to the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and other international conventions. In the current international conventions, the division of emission reduction responsibilities is mainly based on the accounting method of territorial responsibility, that is, according to the principle of producer responsibility, the responsibility of emissions in international trade should be attributed entirely to the producing countries. However, under the circumstances of economic globalization and trade internationalization, the production and consumption of goods are often separated. It is possible for developed countries to achieve their home-grown carbon emission reduction targets through international trade, but the "hidden carbon" of trade has led to an increase in carbon emissions from major producers of commodities, which in turn could lead to a "carbon leak" in the world. China is the world's largest processing plant, undertaking a large number of carbon dioxide emissions from trading partner consumption. Therefore, quantifying the total amount, flow direction and influencing factors of China's trade implied carbon, and analyzing the law of the change of implied carbon in China's trade and the contribution rate of the influencing factors will help to clarify China's responsibility for emission reduction in the international community. We will improve the scientific and operational nature of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies. Based on the continuous non-competitive input-output model, this paper analyzes the law of the production of implied carbon (QP) and consumption of implied carbon (QC) in China in 1997-2010. Both increased in 1997 and 2010, and QP was higher than QC,QP from 3.02 billion tons in 1997 to 7.09 billion tons in 2010, and QC grew from 2.54 billion tons in 1997 to 5.73 billion tons in 2010. By constructing the technical coefficient of virtual importing countries, this paper calculates the implied carbon in China's import and export trade and the change rule of implied carbon in import and export trade with major trading partners. In the past years, the export implied carbon QE is higher than the import implied carbon QM,QE from 700 million tons to 1.98 billion tons, and the ratio of QE to QP is between 21.6% and 36.8%. QM increased from 160 million tons in 1997 to 630 million tons in 2010, with the ratio of QM to QP between 5.3% and 12.3%. From 1997 to 2010, China moved to the United States. The implied carbon generated by Japan and EU exports accounted for 45.0% / 72.8% of China's exports that year, and 16.7% / 25.4% for imports from the United States, Japan, and Europe. China's export implied carbon is mainly concentrated in heavy chemical industry and labor-intensive sectors, while import implied carbon is mainly concentrated in technology-intensive sectors. In addition, using the structural decomposition model, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of implied carbon in China's import and export trade from 1997 to 2010, and divides the influencing factors of export implicit carbon into the factors of export volume per unit employed population, employment structure factor, and the total number of employed persons. Input structure factor, energy intensity factor and carbon emission coefficient factor. The results show that the export quantity factor of unit employed population is the main reason for the increase of implied carbon in export. The energy intensity factor is the main factor of the export implied carbon reduction. The import implicit carbon influence factor is divided into import total factor, import structure factor, virtual importing country technical coefficient factor, input structure factor, energy intensity factor and carbon emission coefficient factor. The results show that the import total quantity factor is the main reason for the increase of import implicit carbon. The energy intensity factor is the main factor in the reduction of implied carbon in imports.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;X196
本文编号：2465837
[Abstract]:In order to alleviate global warming, the major countries in the world have carried out emission reduction and control activities of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide according to the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and other international conventions. In the current international conventions, the division of emission reduction responsibilities is mainly based on the accounting method of territorial responsibility, that is, according to the principle of producer responsibility, the responsibility of emissions in international trade should be attributed entirely to the producing countries. However, under the circumstances of economic globalization and trade internationalization, the production and consumption of goods are often separated. It is possible for developed countries to achieve their home-grown carbon emission reduction targets through international trade, but the "hidden carbon" of trade has led to an increase in carbon emissions from major producers of commodities, which in turn could lead to a "carbon leak" in the world. China is the world's largest processing plant, undertaking a large number of carbon dioxide emissions from trading partner consumption. Therefore, quantifying the total amount, flow direction and influencing factors of China's trade implied carbon, and analyzing the law of the change of implied carbon in China's trade and the contribution rate of the influencing factors will help to clarify China's responsibility for emission reduction in the international community. We will improve the scientific and operational nature of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies. Based on the continuous non-competitive input-output model, this paper analyzes the law of the production of implied carbon (QP) and consumption of implied carbon (QC) in China in 1997-2010. Both increased in 1997 and 2010, and QP was higher than QC,QP from 3.02 billion tons in 1997 to 7.09 billion tons in 2010, and QC grew from 2.54 billion tons in 1997 to 5.73 billion tons in 2010. By constructing the technical coefficient of virtual importing countries, this paper calculates the implied carbon in China's import and export trade and the change rule of implied carbon in import and export trade with major trading partners. In the past years, the export implied carbon QE is higher than the import implied carbon QM,QE from 700 million tons to 1.98 billion tons, and the ratio of QE to QP is between 21.6% and 36.8%. QM increased from 160 million tons in 1997 to 630 million tons in 2010, with the ratio of QM to QP between 5.3% and 12.3%. From 1997 to 2010, China moved to the United States. The implied carbon generated by Japan and EU exports accounted for 45.0% / 72.8% of China's exports that year, and 16.7% / 25.4% for imports from the United States, Japan, and Europe. China's export implied carbon is mainly concentrated in heavy chemical industry and labor-intensive sectors, while import implied carbon is mainly concentrated in technology-intensive sectors. In addition, using the structural decomposition model, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of implied carbon in China's import and export trade from 1997 to 2010, and divides the influencing factors of export implicit carbon into the factors of export volume per unit employed population, employment structure factor, and the total number of employed persons. Input structure factor, energy intensity factor and carbon emission coefficient factor. The results show that the export quantity factor of unit employed population is the main reason for the increase of implied carbon in export. The energy intensity factor is the main factor of the export implied carbon reduction. The import implicit carbon influence factor is divided into import total factor, import structure factor, virtual importing country technical coefficient factor, input structure factor, energy intensity factor and carbon emission coefficient factor. The results show that the import total quantity factor is the main reason for the increase of import implicit carbon. The energy intensity factor is the main factor in the reduction of implied carbon in imports.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;X196
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