基于农户生物一经济模型的农业与环境政策响应模拟——以太湖流域为例

发布时间：2019-05-18 00:21

【摘要】：本文基于太湖流域上游地区268户农户的调查数据,根据农地经营规模和兼业化程度将农户分成4种类型,通过构建农户生物一经济模型,模拟了教育与培训、税收、补贴等5种农业与环境政策对不同类型农户作物种植行为和环境友好型技术选择行为的影响,以及相应的经济、社会和环境效应。模拟结果显示,在保持现有政策不变的情况下(基线情景),环境效应将整体改善,但是,相应的经济和社会效应将总体变差。农业与环境政策可以通过改变种植结构和提高环境友好型技术的采用率实现经济、社会和环境综合效应的改善。教育与培训政策能够有效引导农户采用环境友好型技术,但是适当组合其他经济激励政策的引导效果会更好。不同类型农户对政策的敏感度存在差异,兼业化程度低的农户对政策的敏感度较高。此外,相比于其他三类小农户,种植大户的经济效益最高。因此,发展适度规模经营是实现农业"第二次飞跃"以及促进农业增效、农民增收的重要途径。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of 268 farmers in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake Basin, this paper divides farmers into four types according to the scale and concurrent degree of farmland management. By constructing the biological-economic model of farmers, the education, training and taxation are simulated. The effects of five kinds of agricultural and environmental policies, such as subsidies, on crop planting behavior and environmentally friendly technology choice behavior of different types of farmers, as well as the corresponding economic, social and environmental effects. The simulation results show that the environmental effects will improve as a whole while the existing policies remain unchanged (the baseline scenario), but the corresponding economic and social effects will become worse as a whole. Agricultural and environmental policies can improve the comprehensive economic, social and environmental effects by changing the planting structure and increasing the adoption rate of environmentally friendly technologies. Education and training policy can effectively guide farmers to adopt environmentally friendly technology, but the guidance effect of proper combination of other economic incentive policies will be better. There are differences in the sensitivity of different types of farmers to the policy, and the farmers with low degree of facularization are more sensitive to the policy. In addition, compared with the other three categories of small farmers, the economic benefits of large farmers are the highest. Therefore, the development of moderate scale management is an important way to realize the "second leap" of agriculture and promote agricultural efficiency and increase farmers' income.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;荷兰瓦赫宁根大学作物生产系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“农村土地制度与资源配置”(项目编号:71322301);国家自然科学基金项目“农村发展中生态环境管理研究”(项目编号:70833001) 教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”(项目编号:NCET-10-0494、NCET-10-0474) 中央高校基本科研业务费项目“农户测土配方施肥技术选择及其经济和生态效应综合评价研究”(项目编号:KYZ201167)的资助
【分类号】：F062.2;F30;F224

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