经济学向何处去——金融危机以来的经济学反思

发布时间：2019-06-12 19:34

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,经济学界有关经济学的反思一直不断。理论方面,宏观经济理论和模型以及"有效市场假说"的有效性成为争论的焦点;政策领域,关于财政政策的有效性和通胀目标的设定出现了重大分歧;研究方法上,围绕着数学与经济学之间的关系以及经济学模型化方法纷争不断。然而,反思中也呈现出共识因素,从而揭示了经济学未来可能的发展方向。理论上,金融因素及更为现实的市场缺陷和摩擦因素将更多地被纳入经济学理论和模型中进行讨论,并且处理这些因素的模型也将更趋多元化;政策上,亟须发展出一套理论框架为财政政策和更为广泛的货币政策提供理论依据,货币政策将回归到数量工具、价格工具和其他工具并用的传统;方法上,超越数学的更为广泛意义上的多样化技术工具将积极发挥作用,模型会向更具现实性因而也更为复杂化的方向发展。除了危机的外部冲击外,经济学的这种路径转向可能还需要该学科内部制度性激励结构的相应变革。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the economic circles have been reflecting on economics. In theory, the effectiveness of macroeconomic theory and model and the "efficient market hypothesis" has become the focus of debate; in the field of policy, there are great differences between the effectiveness of fiscal policy and the setting of inflation targets; in the research method, there are continuous disputes around the relationship between mathematics and economics and the method of economic modeling. However, there is also a consensus factor in the reflection, which reveals the possible development direction of economics in the future. In theory, financial factors and more realistic market defects and friction factors will be more discussed in economic theories and models, and the models dealing with these factors will be more diversified. On the policy side, it is urgent to develop a set of theoretical framework to provide theoretical basis for fiscal policy and broader monetary policy, and monetary policy will return to the tradition of combining quantitative tools, price tools and other tools. In the method, the diversified technical tools beyond mathematics will play an active role, and the model will develop in a direction that is more realistic and therefore more complex. In addition to the external impact of the crisis, this path shift in economics may also require the corresponding changes in the internal institutional incentive structure of the subject.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)(12XNH073)
【分类号】：F01

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