中国区域碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析

发布时间：2019-06-18 08:26

【摘要】：本文测度了1995-2008年中国29个省市的碳排放量,分析了中国碳排放的区域差异,通过构建"LMD I分解模型",将各地区人均碳排放分解为人均GDP、能源结构、能源强度等影响因素,同时将能源强度进一步分解为各产业能源强度和产业结构两类因素。研究结果表明:几类因素对各省市自治区碳排放增长的影响方向和影响程度存在差异,但从全国及东中西三大区域看,人均GDP是促进碳排放量增长的决定因素,能源强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,而能源强度变化主要由工业部门能源强度的变化决定,产业结构变化通过促进能源强度的增加,间接推动了碳排放量的增长。能源结构推动了碳排放的增长,但影响程度较小。现阶段应根据各地区碳排放的区域差异及碳排放增长的影响因素,制定差异化的区域碳减排政策,包括:优化区域能源结构、降低区域能源强度、调整区域产业结构、积极推进区域低碳经济增长方式转变。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the carbon emissions of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2008 are measured, and the regional differences of carbon emissions in China are analyzed. By constructing the "LMD I decomposition model", the per capita carbon emissions in each region are decomposed into per capita GDP, energy structure, energy intensity and other influencing factors. At the same time, the energy intensity is further decomposed into two kinds of factors: energy intensity and industrial structure of each industry. The results show that there are differences in the direction and degree of influence of several factors on the growth of carbon emissions in provinces, cities and autonomous regions. However, from the point of view of the whole country and the eastern and western regions, per capita GDP is the decisive factor to promote the growth of carbon emissions, and the decline of energy intensity is the main factor to inhibit the growth of carbon emissions, while the change of energy intensity is mainly determined by the change of energy intensity in the industrial sector, and the change of industrial structure promotes the increase of energy intensity. Indirectly contributed to the growth of carbon emissions. Energy structure promotes the growth of carbon emissions, but the impact is small. At present, according to the regional differences of carbon emissions and the influencing factors of carbon emission growth, we should formulate differentiated regional carbon emission reduction policies, including optimizing regional energy structure, reducing regional energy intensity, adjusting regional industrial structure, and actively promoting the transformation of regional low-carbon economic growth mode.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国国家创新竞争力战略研究”(项目号:09JZD0030) 陕西省软科学项目“陕西省工业行业效率研究”(编号:2009KRM018) 国家社科基金青年项目“能源消费、污染排放与中国经济的可持续发展”(编号:10CJL034) 西安交通大学“985工程”三期工程资助
【分类号】：X196

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