中国耕地流转时空特征及影响因素分解

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:13

本文关键词：中国耕地流转时空特征及影响因素分解　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过耕地流转实现农业适度规模经营,是解决"谁来种田"的关键。分析各因素对耕地流转的作用及影响强度,识别其主导因素,对促进耕地适度规模经营具有积极意义。该文运用对数平均迪氏分解方法(logarithmic mean weigh Division index method,LMDI)建立因素分解模型,定量评价并对比分析2008?2014年间中国省域耕地流转变动的驱动因素。研究结果表明,1)2008?2014年,中国耕地流转面积累计增长了1.96?107 hm2,增长2.7倍,年均增长率达到24.40%,京津地区、黄淮海地区、长江中下游地区、东北地区等经济活跃或优势农业产区的耕地流转发展较快。2)经济因素、农民增收因素、农机化因素对耕地流转有显著的正向作用,其中农机化因素对耕地流转的促进作用最大,研究期内农机化累计效应促进耕地流转率提高18.16%,经营意愿因素对耕地流转有显著的负向影响。3)区域之间4个分解因素的累计效应存在显著差异。总体而言,经济效应促进了华东与华南地区耕地流转率的显著提高,农民增收效应主要促进了华东地区耕地流转率提高,农机化效应促进了大部分地区耕地流转率提高10%以上,但华南与西南地区相对较低。
[Abstract]:It is the key to solve the problem of "who cultivates farmland" to realize the moderate scale management of agriculture through cultivated land circulation. The function and influence intensity of each factor on cultivated land circulation are analyzed, and the leading factors are identified. This paper applies the logarithmic average di decomposition method to promote the moderate scale management of cultivated land. Logarithmic mean weigh Division index method. LMDI) to establish a factorization model, quantitative evaluation and comparative analysis of 2008? The driving factors of the change of cultivated Land Circulation in China during 2014. In 2014, the area of cultivated land circulation in China increased by 1.96? The average annual growth rate is 24.40. The Beijing-Tianjin region, the Huanghuai Sea area, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River area. The economic factors, the factors of increasing farmers' income and the factors of agricultural mechanization have a significant positive effect on the transfer of cultivated land in the economic active or dominant agricultural production areas of Northeast China. The agricultural mechanization factor has the most promoting effect on the cultivated land circulation, and the cumulative effect of agricultural mechanization during the research period promotes the cultivated land circulation rate to increase by 18.16%. The cumulative effects of the four decomposition factors on cultivated land circulation were significantly different from each other. Generally speaking, there were significant differences among the four factors. The economic effect has promoted the cultivated land circulation rate of East China and South China to increase significantly, and the farmers' income increase effect has mainly promoted the increase of cultivated land circulation rate in East China. The effect of agricultural mechanization has promoted the rate of cultivated land circulation to increase by more than 10% in most areas, but it is relatively low in South and Southwest China.
【作者单位】：江苏大学管理学院;农业部南京农业机械化研究所;江苏省农业科学院;
【基金】：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(农科院办(2014)216号) 国家软科学研究计划(2014GXS4D108)
【分类号】：F323.211
【正文快照】： 王桂民,陈聪,曹光乔,易中懿.中国耕地流转时空特征及影响因素分解[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(1):1-7.doi:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.01.001 http://www.tcsae.orgWang Guimin,Chen Cong,Cao Guangqiao,Yi Zhongyi.Spatial-temporal characteristics and influential fact

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