中国粮食生产潜力及灌溉水贡献研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 03:12

本文关键词：中国粮食生产潜力及灌溉水贡献研究　出处：《华中师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：粮食生产潜力研究是粮食安全研究的重要内容。工业革命以来,全球气候变化加剧,水资源匮乏,新的气候环境下世界粮食安全压力增大。我国是人口大国,对我国的粮食生产潜力及灌溉水贡献进行定量研究对保障我国粮食安全具有重要的研究意义。以2010年我国耕地空间分布遥感监测数据为基础,结合1981年～2010年的平均气候状况及土壤、地形等数据,采用AEZ (Agro-Ecological Zones)模型,综合考虑光、温、水、C02浓度、病虫害、农业气候限制、土壤、地形等多方面因素,在估算中国水稻、小麦、玉米和大豆四种主要农作物在雨养和灌溉两种情景下的生产潜力及适宜种植面积的基础上,分析了四种主要农作物生产潜力及灌溉水对粮食生产潜力的贡献的空间格局特征。研究结论如下：(1)从生产潜力看,无论雨养还是灌溉情景下,玉米的全国生产潜力总量最高,其次是小麦和水稻,大豆最低。(2)两种情景下四种作物适宜种植面积空间分布差异显著。水稻适宜种植面积在雨养和灌溉两种情景下分布差异显著：在雨养情景下仅分布在中国南部,广大北方地区无法种植水稻,适宜种植面积仅57.82百万公顷。高值区主要集中在长江中下游沿线地区、两湖平原和鄱阳湖平原等地；而在灌溉情景下明显向北扩张,水稻适宜种植面积达152.31百万公顷,尤其是东北平原和黄淮海平原,成为水稻的高产种植区。其他三种作物在雨养和灌溉两种情景下分布差异较小：在雨养情景下黄淮海平原南部、长江中下游平原沿长江以北的地区、东北平原部分地区是我国的小麦、玉米和大豆生产潜力高值区主要集中交汇处；在灌溉情景下这三种作物的适宜种植区面积扩张较小,在10百万公顷左右,主要集中在北方干旱半干旱地区。可见除了水稻,其他三种作物在灌溉情景下比雨养情景下生产潜力总量的增加,主要是通过原有适宜种植区上的生产潜力的提高而不是适宜种植区面积的增加来获得的。(3)四种作物的灌溉水贡献量及空间分布差异显著。分作物看,灌溉水对水稻生产潜力贡献最大,达373.55百万吨,对大豆生产潜力贡献最小。灌溉水对水稻生产潜力贡献的空间分布与其他三种作物有所差别。灌溉水对水稻生产潜力最大的农业区是黄淮海平原和东北三大平原,雨养情景下水稻不需要灌溉补给的地区主要分布在长江中下游平原地区的湖南、江西、浙江和华南区北部；灌溉水对玉米、小麦和大豆生产潜力贡献较大的地区大体一致集中分布在我国北方,且大致呈现由东南向西北增加的趋势,在新疆绿洲、河西走廊、河套平原、阴山山麓、科尔沁沙地等地灌溉水贡献量最大。这三种作物没有灌溉需求的地区大致集中在长白山东麓小部分地区、四川盆地或贵州和两广地区、洞庭湖平原和鄱阳湖平原等地。(4)总体上,在雨养和灌溉情景下我国粮食生产潜力总量和适宜种植面积排名前三的均为：长江中下游地区、黄淮海平原、东北平原,而华南区和青藏高原区排名末位。作物生产潜力的灌溉水贡献量最高的是北方干旱半干旱区,作物的灌溉需求面积最大的是黄淮海平原区、东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区。研究揭示了中国近30年气候环境下主要粮食作物生产潜力及其灌溉水贡献量的空间格局特征,对于我国主要粮食作物生产布局调整、农业水利灌溉设施建设、人口政策和土地政策制定,及国家粮食安全的保障均具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Study on the production potential of grain is an important research content of grain security. Since the industrial revolution, contribute to global climate change, water scarcity, pressure increase world grain security under the new climate environment. China is a populous country, for the quantitative study of China's grain production potential and contribution of irrigation water has important significance to guarantee China's food security. The distribution of cultivated land spatial remote sensing monitoring data in China in 2010 as the foundation, combined with the 1981 to 2010 the average climate condition and soil, terrain data, using AEZ (Agro-Ecological Zones) model, considering the light, water, temperature, C02 concentration, plant diseases and insect pests, agricultural climatic limiting factors, soil. The terrain, in the estimation of Chinese rice, wheat, four main crops of corn and soybean under rainfed and irrigated two scenarios of production potential and suitable planting area on the basis of analysis of the four main The spatial pattern of contribution to crop production potential and irrigation water for food production potential. The research conclusions are as follows: (1) from the production potential, both rainfed and irrigated conditions, the national corn production potential of the highest amount, followed by wheat and rice, soybean. The lowest (2) under the two scenarios four crop planting area spatial distribution difference is significant. The difference of rice suitable planting area in rainfed and irrigated two scenarios: significantly under rainfed situation only distributed in the southern Chinese, rice to grow the northern area, suitable planting area of only 57 million 820 thousand hectares. High value areas are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River region along Hubei and Hunan, plain and Poyang Lake plain; and in the irrigation scenario obviously northward expansion of rice planting area of 152 million 310 thousand hectares, especially in the Northeast Plain and Huanghuaihai Plain, rice became high All the other three crops planting area. Small differences in the distribution in rainfed and irrigated under two scenarios: in Rainfed situations in Huanghuaihai plain south of the Yangtze River plain along the north of the Yangtze River region, Northeast China Plain is wheat, corn and soybean production potential high value areas are mainly concentrated at the junction of in the three scenario irrigation; crop planting area expansion area is smaller, at about 10 million hectares, mainly concentrated in the northern arid and semi-arid area. In addition to visible rice, the other three crops in the irrigation scenario than the rainfed situations increase the production potential of the total, is mainly achieved by the suitable planting area of the improve the production potential and not suitable planting area. (3) the contribution amount of irrigation water and the spatial distribution difference of four crops significantly. Crops, with irrigation water on rice production potential in the, Up to 373 million 550 thousand tons, the smallest contribution to soybean production potential. The irrigation water distribution on the contribution of rice production potential of the space and the other three crops vary. Irrigation water on rice production potential in agricultural area is in Huanghuaihai Plain and Northeast Three Great Plains, rainfed rice situation does not need irrigation recharge areas are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River the downstream plain area of Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Northern Southern China area; irrigation water for corn, wheat and soybean production potential contribution to the larger area roughly the same concentration distribution in North China, and the increasing trend from southeast to northwest, in Xinjiang oasis, Hexi Corridor, Hetao Plain, mountain foothills, etc. in Horqin sandy land irrigation water. The largest contribution to the amount of the three crops without irrigation demand area largely concentrated in the Changbai Mountain East small area, Sichuan basin or Guizhou and Guangdong and Guangxi, hole Dongting Lake Plain and Poyang Lake plain. (4) on the whole, in the rainfed and irrigated conditions the total potential of China's grain production and planting area of the top three are: the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the North China Plain, Northeast China Plain, the Southern China region and Qinghai Tibet Plateau area ranking at the end of the crop production potential. Irrigation water amount of contribution is the highest in northern arid and semi arid areas, crop irrigation demand is the largest area of Huanghuaihai plain area, Northeast Plain and northern arid and semi-arid area. Research reveals the spatial pattern of Chinese nearly 30 years of climate potential productivity of major grain crops and irrigation water amount of contribution, the main grain crops the production layout adjustment of our country agriculture, irrigation facilities, population policy and land policy, and national food security are of great significance.

【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S274;F326.11

【共引文献】