新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放脱钩关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 04:17

本文关键词：新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放脱钩关系的实证研究　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：党的十八大提出"把推动发展的立足点转到提高质量和效益上来"。新疆作为我国五大牧区之一,研究畜牧养殖业发展质量效益,对第一产业的健康可持续发展有重要的现实意义。畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放动态关系的研究作为检验畜牧养殖业发展质量效益的前提和重点。因此,笔者根据1997年以来新疆畜牧业增加值作为衡量经济效益指标,根据9类反刍动物肠道发酵和粪便排放所产生的温室气体作为衡量碳排放指标,并利用Tapio脱钩模型,探讨新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放的脱钩情况,并对其脱钩状态进行分析。结果表明:(1)新疆畜牧养殖碳排放量由1997年的649.71万t增加到2014年的747.33万t,增幅15.03%,年均增长0.83%,呈现"持续上升-快速下降-缓慢上升"3阶段特征。碳排放量和碳排放结构空间差异明显;(2)新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放呈现"弱脱钩平稳-扩张负脱钩与强负脱钩交替-强脱钩转型"的演进关系,以弱脱钩、强脱钩为主。据此,提出相应建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the five pastoral areas in China, Xinjiang is one of the five major pastoral areas in China, which studies the quality and benefits of the development of animal husbandry. It is of great practical significance to the healthy and sustainable development of the primary industry. The study on the relationship between the economic benefits of animal husbandry and the dynamic carbon emissions is the premise and focus of testing the quality benefits of the development of animal husbandry. According to the value added of animal husbandry in Xinjiang since 1997 as a measure of economic benefits, according to 9 types of ruminant intestinal fermentation and excreta emissions of greenhouse gases as a measure of carbon emissions. The decoupling model of Tapio was used to discuss the decoupling between economic benefits and carbon emissions in Xinjiang. The results showed that the carbon emissions of Xinjiang livestock farming increased from six million four hundred and ninety-seven thousand and one hundred tons in 1997 to seven million four hundred and seventy-three thousand and three hundred tons in 2014. The growth rate is 15.03, with an average annual increase of 0.83%, showing the characteristics of the three stages of "continuously rising, fast descending and slowly rising", and the spatial difference of carbon emissions and carbon emission structure is obvious. 2) the relationship between economic benefit and carbon emission of livestock farming in Xinjiang is "weak decoupling steady expansion negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling alternately-strong decoupling transition", mainly weak decoupling and strong decoupling. The corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【作者单位】：新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院;新疆农业大学林学与园艺学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“塔里木河流域农业非点源污染成因及调控研究”(71163041) 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目“新疆农业碳排放研究:驱动机理、峰值预测与控制策略”(2016D01B017)
【分类号】：F326.3;S811.5
【正文快照】： 0引言近年来气候变暖所导致的高温热潮、暴雨连连、旱灾、沙尘暴频发事件的概率持续增加,CO2是造成该现象的源头之一,因此,发展低碳绿色经济、发展节能减排成为全球关注的热点。2015年12月12日,195个缔约方在巴黎达成了新的全球气候协议——《巴黎协议》,提出努力将气温升幅限

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