湖南省农业综合自然灾害对粮食产量影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 02:15

本文关键词：湖南省农业综合自然灾害对粮食产量影响的实证分析　出处：《湖南科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：湖南省是农业大省,也是人口大省,粮食的稳定生产不但是经济问题,也是社会稳定的重要保障。影响粮食生产的主要因素是耕地面积。粮食耕地面积可以通过国家补贴和控制农地非农化来加以保障,但是,除了粮食耕地面积还有很多不确定的因素影响到粮食生产的稳定。其中,农业自然灾害对粮食产量波动影响较大。因此,加强农业自然灾害的研究,降低其对粮食产量波动的影响,对保障湖南省粮食的稳定生产具有十分重要的意义。为了能够准确评估自然灾害对粮食产量造成的影响,本文利用1978-2013年湖南省综合自然灾害和粮食产量的相关数据,计算了湖南省农业综合自然灾害的受灾率、成灾率、受灾和受灾异常指数、粮食生产波动指数以及综合自然灾害成灾率波动指数。分析发现湖南省农业综合自然灾害主要以一般灾害为主。其次是重灾。并且随着时间的推移,灾害发生的频率明显加快,灾害程度也明显加剧,有些具体年份成灾率大于受灾率,说明湖南省农业综合自然灾害的抵御能力相对较弱。湖南省粮食总产量整体呈上升趋势,但是受自然灾害的影响波动较大。基于湖南省综合自然灾害与湖南省粮食总产量波动特征,通过VAR模型对湖南省粮食产量与综合自然灾害的波动相关性进行实证分析,并对湖南省未来7年的粮食产量波动指数和综合自然灾害成灾波动指数变化趋势进行预测,发现未来一定时期内粮食产量相对综合自然灾害存在负相关性和滞后性。自然灾害的成灾程度越大粮食产量下降越严重,并且当年的受灾程度会在未来一定时期内对粮食生产造成负面影响。因此本文对湖南省综合自然灾害提出综合自然灾害风险管理建议,为自然灾害风险管理和稳定湖南省粮食生产提供理论和现实的依据。
[Abstract]:Hunan Province is a big agricultural province, but also a large population province, the stable production of grain is not only an economic problem. It is also an important guarantee of social stability. The main factor affecting grain production is the cultivated land area. The grain cultivated land area can be protected by state subsidies and control of farmland conversion, but. Besides the area of grain cultivated land, there are many uncertain factors that affect the stability of grain production. Among them, agricultural natural disasters have a great impact on the fluctuation of grain yield. Therefore, the study of agricultural natural disasters should be strengthened. It is very important to reduce the impact on grain yield fluctuation to ensure the stable production of grain in Hunan Province, in order to accurately evaluate the impact of natural disasters on grain production. Based on the data of comprehensive natural disasters and grain production in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2013, this paper calculates the disaster rate, disaster success rate, disaster and abnormal index of agricultural comprehensive natural disasters in Hunan Province. The fluctuation index of grain production and comprehensive natural disaster rate fluctuation index. The analysis found that Hunan Province agricultural comprehensive natural disasters are mainly general disasters, followed by severe disasters. And with the passage of time. The frequency of disasters is obviously accelerated, and the degree of disasters is also significantly increased. In some specific years, the disaster occurrence rate is greater than the disaster rate. It shows that the agricultural comprehensive natural disaster resistance of Hunan Province is relatively weak. The total grain output of Hunan Province as a whole is on the rise. However, the impact of natural disasters fluctuates greatly. Based on the comprehensive natural disasters in Hunan Province and the fluctuation characteristics of total grain production in Hunan Province. The VAR model is used to analyze the correlation between the fluctuation of grain production and comprehensive natural disasters in Hunan Province. The variation trend of grain yield fluctuation index and comprehensive natural disaster fluctuation index in Hunan Province in the next 7 years are forecasted. It is found that there is a negative correlation and lag between grain production and comprehensive natural disasters in a certain period of time. The greater the degree of natural disasters, the more serious the decrease of grain production. And the degree of disaster in the future will have a negative impact on food production. Therefore, this paper puts forward comprehensive natural disaster risk management recommendations for Hunan Province. It provides theoretical and practical basis for natural disaster risk management and stability of grain production in Hunan Province.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S42;F326.11

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