浙江省农业机械化发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 03:36

本文关键词：浙江省农业机械化发展研究　出处：《南京农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业机械化是指人类的体力劳作和畜力劳动被机械所代替,这个过程中是一个影响因素较多、各个因素之间关系较复杂的大系统。在农业机械化发展过程中,要评价其对农业生产过程发挥的作用,就要正确认识现阶段农业机械化发展水平,必须建立一套较为科学农业机械化水平的评价体系。鉴于南、北农业发展模式不同,农业机械化综合评价体系的指标不同,为了促进浙江省农业机械化水平的可持续发展,让浙江省农业机械化综合水平从中级阶段发展到高级阶段,建立适合于浙江省农业发展模式的农业机械化评价指标体系和并且进行相关评价研究,对浙江省的农业机械化发展进行宏观和微观控制,充分发挥农业机械化在浙江省农业生产、农村生活中的积极作用,调动农民的积极性,具有重要的实际意义和理论意义。本文从多方面对浙江省农业机械发展现状进行分析,揭示影响农业机械化发展的主要因素。在大量数据调查的基础上,对浙江省农业机械装备、农业机械作业水平、农业经济发展以及农业机械化服务体系进行了分析。在前人建立的评价指标体系的基础上,采用多指标分层次进行综合评价,采用加权指数综合评分法计算并且分析了浙江省及其全省11市2009-2013年农业机械化综合水平。经过比较,认为当前浙江省农业机械化综合水平发展最好的城市是宁波市,较差的是丽水市,近期发展最快的是湖州市。运用时间序列趋势模型和灰色动态模型,对浙江省及其11个市进行"十二五"期间的机械化综合水平预期结果进行预测,拟合误差均小于2%,误差较小,预测值有一定的可信度。运用DPS软件,对浙江省2009-2013年农业机械化总水平和11个市2014年和2015年农业机械化总水平进行了预测。预测表明,2015年浙江省农业机械化综合水平预测值为68.23%。"十二五"期间,浙江省农业机械化综合水平增长约为5%,其中丽水市是省内农业机械化综合水平较低的城市,宁波市农业机械化水平已经达到高级阶段,两个城市之间存在的差距会扩大。本文分析了浙江省目前农业机械化综合水平,预测了浙江省的农业机械化综合水平,研究了其发展趋势。根据浙江省农业发展的现状和发展趋势,明确了农业机械化发展的优势和不足,对浙江省制定农机发展相关政策有一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:Agricultural mechanization is the human physical labor and animal labor is replaced by mechanical, this process is a system of many factors, relations between the factors is complex. In the development of agricultural mechanization process, to evaluate the role of agricultural production, it is necessary to correctly understand the development level of agricultural machinery of the present stage, we must establish a set of scientific agricultural mechanization level evaluation system. In view of the south, North agricultural development mode, agricultural mechanization comprehensive evaluation index system is different, in order to promote the sustainable development of Zhejiang Province, the level of agricultural mechanization, make Zhejiang Province comprehensive agricultural mechanization level from the intermediate stage to advanced stage the establishment of agricultural mechanization, the evaluation index system for Zhejiang Province agricultural development mode and related research and evaluation of agricultural machinery in Zhejiang Province, the development of The macro and micro control, give full play to the role of Agricultural Mechanization in agricultural production in Zhejiang Province, the positive role in the rural life, arouse the enthusiasm of farmers, has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper from the analysis of the current situation of the development of agricultural machinery in Zhejiang Province, in many aspects, exposing the main factors are shown to affect the development of agricultural mechanization. Based on the survey data of Zhejiang Province, agricultural machinery, agricultural machinery operation level, the development of agricultural economy and agricultural mechanization service system are analyzed. Based on the established evaluation index system, using hierarchical multi index comprehensive evaluation, calculation and analysis of agricultural machinery in Zhejiang province and the province's 11 city 2009-2013 years of comprehensive level using the weighted index comprehensive evaluation method. Through the comparison, that the current Zhejiang Province Agricultural Mechanization Development in Ningbo is the best city Poor city, is the city of Lishui, the recent development is the fastest in Huzhou city. By using the time series trend model and grey dynamic model of Zhejiang province and its 11 cities "12th Five-Year" period of mechanization is expected to predict the results, the fitting error is less than 2%, the error is small, the prediction value has a certain degree of credibility using DPS software, the agricultural machinery in Zhejiang province 2009-2013 total level and 11 in 2014 and 2015 the total agricultural mechanization level is predicted. Forecasts show that in 2015 Zhejiang Province comprehensive agricultural mechanization level prediction value for the 68.23%. "12th Five-Year" period, Zhejiang Province Agricultural Machinery growth comprehensive level of about 5%, including Lishui city is the province of agricultural mechanization low level city, the level of Agricultural Mechanization in Ningbo city has already reached an advanced stage, there is a gap between the two city will be expanded. This paper analyzes the present Zhejiang Province Comprehensive agricultural mechanization level, agricultural machinery in Zhejiang Province, the prediction of comprehensive level, the trend of its development. According to the current situation and development trend of agricultural development in Zhejiang Province, the agricultural mechanization development advantages and disadvantages, have certain guiding role for Zhejiang province to formulate relevant policies of agricultural development.

【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.3

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