我国肉牛养殖风险及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 09:24

本文关键词：我国肉牛养殖风险及影响因素分析　出处：《中国农业大学学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为探讨肉牛养殖风险,基于1995—2013年河北等11个省区的非平衡面板数据,通过测算肉牛养殖利润、成本和产量的均值、方差和偏度,对肉牛养殖风险进行评估,并分析影响风险的相关因素。研究结果表明:我国肉牛养殖的利润和产量风险较大,利润和成本总体呈现左偏态,而产量则主要呈现右偏态,年际和区域间存在较大差异;利润风险大体呈现下降趋势,产量风险近年有所增加,成本风险较小且呈现下降趋势。养殖密度、疫病风险、产业优势、饲料结构、资本装备、养殖周期、技术进步和区域差异等因素,影响着肉牛养殖利润、成本和产量及其风险大小和发生概率。应警惕肉牛养殖左偏为常态的认识,建议合理调整载畜量,优化产业规模,调整饲料结构,加强资本装备水平,推进新型养殖模式,提升科技进步对肉牛产业贡献力度。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the risk of beef cattle breeding, based on the non-equilibrium panel data of 11 provinces and regions such as Hebei Province from 1995 to 2013, the average value, variance and deviation of beef cattle breeding profit, cost and output were calculated. The risk of beef cattle breeding was evaluated and the related factors were analyzed. The results showed that the risk of profit and yield of beef cattle breeding in China was higher and the profit and cost showed a left skewed state. However, the yield was mainly right skewed, and there were great differences between different regions and years. The profit risk showed a downward trend, the yield risk increased in recent years, the cost risk was small and showed a downward trend. Culture density, epidemic risk, industrial advantages, feed structure, capital equipment, breeding cycle. Technological progress and regional differences affect beef cattle breeding profit, cost and output, risk and probability of occurrence. We should be aware that the left side of beef cattle breeding is normal, and suggest to adjust the carrying capacity reasonably. Optimize industrial scale, adjust feed structure, strengthen capital and equipment level, promote new breeding model, and promote the contribution of scientific and technological progress to beef industry.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173220) 中国农业大学博士后基金项目(2014M550893) 中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01)
【分类号】：F326.3
【正文快照】： 随着农业机械化水平的提高,我国役用牛逐渐减少,越来越多的农户退出养牛业,养殖模式由原来的千家万户散养逐步向规模养殖场(户)集中饲养转变,农业现代化解放了我国肉牛产业。肉牛养殖投资大,饲养繁殖周期长,繁殖率低[1],导致其风险较高。具体而言,肉牛养殖者所面临的风险一般

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