四川省粮食生产时空变化特征及产量影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 01:02

  本文关键词：四川省粮食生产时空变化特征及产量影响因素研究　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 粮食生产 空间自相关 重心移动 灰色关联分析 四川省

【摘要】：粮食安全是关系我国国计民生的大事,从2004年开始,中央一号文件持续关注三农问题。四川省地处我国西南腹地,其粮食安全对维持四川省及西南地区社会稳定具有重要作用。且经过多年发展,四川省粮食产量种植结构及粮食产量空间分布状况发生变化,对其粮食生产时空格局变化情况及粮食产量影响因素进行分析,具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文利用1997年 2015年四川省粮食总产量、主要粮食作物产量数据,研究了四川省粮食总产量及种植结构变化情况,并用县域粮食产量数据,研究四川省粮食产量空间集聚与分散状态,在此基础上,研究该段时间内四川省粮食产量重心移动情况。从国家政策、农民种粮投入—产出效益、农业科技水平、自然灾害4个方面选取16个指标,采用主成分分析法、灰色关联分析法对这16个指标对粮食产量的影响程度进行度量,主要结果如下:(1)1997年 2015年,四川省粮食产量总体平稳。1997年 1999年、2002年 2012年为四川省粮食产量增长阶段;2000年 2001年、2013年 2014年为粮食产量降低阶段。(2)1997年 2015年,四川省粮食作物种植结构出现了多次变化,稻谷产量呈下降趋势,但一直为四川省最主要粮食作物,小麦产量所占比重逐年下降,玉米、薯类所占比重呈上升趋势,且玉米增长趋势较快。(3)全局空间Moran's I指数均为正数,且基本介于0.545 0.599之间,四川省粮食产量空间分布存在显著集聚效应;高 高聚集区主要分布在四川盆地东北部及中部各市县,逐渐由单个高值中心缩小至两个小范围高值中心,覆盖面积不断减少,低 低类型区主要分布在四川西部甘孜州、阿坝州,且该类型区范围逐渐向四川南部乐山市、凉山州、攀枝花市扩展;1997年 2015年,四川省粮食重心均在乐至县境内,基本呈“南下东进”趋势。(4)根据主成分分析法评价结果,各因素对粮食产量影响由强到弱依次为氮肥施用量、磷肥施用量、经济作物占农作物播种面积比例、钾肥施用量、复合肥施用量、种粮劳动力、城镇化率、农村用电量、水灾受灾面积、农业支出占四川省财政支出比例、粮食收购价格指数、农村居民人均纯收入、机耕面积、有效灌溉面积、农民人均生产费用支出占人均支出比重。(5)将研究时段划分为1997年 2000年、2001年 2005年、2006年 2010年、2011年 2015年四个研究时段,运用灰色关联分析法,分析各时段各因子与粮食产量灰色关联序,从关联度强弱来看,各时段,各因素对粮食产量关联度以强关联度为主,无弱关联度。从整体来看,1997年 2015年,农业政策与四川省粮食产量关联度整体呈增强趋势;种粮投入 产出效益,对粮食产量变化趋势不明显;农业科技水平对粮食产量的影响总体呈现降低趋势;旱灾受灾面积、水灾受灾面积与粮食产量灰色关联序一直排在较后次序,但其影响不可忽视。
[Abstract]:Food security is a major event related to the national economy and people's livelihood in China. Since 2004, the first document of the Central Committee has been continuously concerned about the issue of agriculture, countryside and farmers. Sichuan Province is located in the hinterland of southwest China. Its food security plays an important role in maintaining social stability in Sichuan Province and Southwest China. After years of development, the structure of grain production and the spatial distribution of grain yield in Sichuan Province have changed. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the changes of temporal and spatial pattern of grain production and the influencing factors of grain yield. This paper makes use of the total grain yield of Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2015. The change of total grain yield and planting structure in Sichuan Province was studied, and the spatial concentration and dispersion of grain yield in Sichuan Province were studied by using county grain yield data. To study the shift of grain yield center in Sichuan province during that period, 16 indexes were selected from four aspects: national policy, farmers' input-output benefit, agricultural science and technology level and natural disaster. Principal component analysis and grey relational analysis were used to measure the influence of these 16 indexes on grain yield. The main results were as follows: 1997 to 2015. The grain yield of Sichuan Province is stable on the whole. 1997 to 1999, 2002 to 2002 is the stage of grain yield growth in Sichuan Province. From 2000 to 2001, 2013 to 2013 was the stage of grain yield reduction. Rice yield showed a downward trend, but has been the most important food crops in Sichuan Province, the proportion of wheat yield decreased year by year, corn, potato accounted for the proportion of increasing trend. The global Moran's I index is positive, and it is between 0.545 and 0.599. The spatial distribution of grain yield in Sichuan Province has significant agglomeration effect. The high concentration area is mainly distributed in the northeast of Sichuan basin and the cities and counties in the central part of Sichuan basin, and gradually reduces from a single high value center to two small high value centers, and the coverage area is decreasing continuously. The low-grade and low-type areas are mainly distributed in Ganzi and Aba prefectures in western Sichuan, and the range of these regions is gradually expanding to Leshan, Liangshan and Panzhihua in southern Sichuan. From 1997 to 2015, the grain barycenter of Sichuan Province was all in Lezhi County, basically showing the trend of "southward moving eastward". 4) according to the results of principal component analysis (PCA), the grain barycenter of Sichuan Province was evaluated. The effects of various factors on grain yield from strong to weak are nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, cash crops in the proportion of crop sown area, potassium fertilizer application rate, compound fertilizer application rate, grain labor force, urbanization rate. Rural electricity consumption, flood disaster area, agricultural expenditure accounts for the proportion of fiscal expenditure in Sichuan Province, grain purchase price index, per capita net income of rural residents, machine farming area, effective irrigation area. The study period is divided into 1997 and 2000, 2001 to 2001, #date鈪，

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