云南省耕地压力测算及其时空差异和影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-15 17:38

本文关键词：云南省耕地压力测算及其时空差异和影响因素分析　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：耕地资源是粮食生产的重要载体和基础,直接关系到一个国家或区域的粮食安全问题,并与社会和谐、政治稳定、经济持续发展等重大问题息息相关,对农业和国民经济起着不可替代的基础性作用。随着总人口城市化、土地城镇化和工业化的快速发展,导致耕地资源压力越来越大,严重影响到人类社会的可持续发展。在此背景下,全面了解和恰当评价耕地资源压力成为土地资源研究领域的重大课题之一。云南省耕地总体质量不高,以坡耕地为主。截至2014年末,云南省水土流失最严重、不适宜耕作的25°陡坡耕地高达83.17万hm2,占全部耕地的13.39%。为此,切实加强山区省份的耕地压力研究已迫在眉睫,不仅有利于指导山区省份保护有限耕地资源(特别是优质耕地资源),而且能够缓解人-地(耕地)系统压力,亦即耕地压力。因此,本研究以云南省16州(市)土地利用变更数据和社会经济数据为基础,运用改进后的山区耕地压力指数模型,对云南省2009-2014年间的耕地压力进行测算后再进行深入分析,具体分析内容为3个方面:(1)结合定量和定性的分析方法对云南省耕地压力时空变化特征和趋势进行了重点分析;(2)综合采用ESDA和变异系数分析云南省市域耕地压力的空间分布特征和空间相关程度;(3)在回归分的基础上构建计量模型分析耕地压力不同影响因素的影响程度。研究结果显示:(1)2009-2014年云南省整体的耕地压力一直处于低压力等级,虽存在一定压力,但压力指数总体呈小幅下降趋势,下降速度逐年减缓。(2)各州(市)的耕地压力指数变化趋势基本与全省耕地压力指数变化趋势基本保持一致,均呈现不同幅度的下降。耕地压力较大的州(市)耕地压力指数虽有下降,但耕地压力等级几乎未变,而处于中低等耕地压力的州(市)耕地压力等级有所变化。(3)云南省耕地压力区域差异明显,总体而言耕地压力较大的州(市)为滇中的昆明市和玉溪市等经济发达区域,以及滇东北的昭通市和滇西北的怒江州等自然地理条件相当恶劣的区域,耕地压力低值区主要分布于西南边境如德宏州、保山市等自然条件优越的区域。(4)由变异系数计算结果可知,2009-2014年间云南省变异系数逐渐稳定升高,表明各州(市)耕地压力的区域差异不断增大。全局莫兰指数均未通过显著性检验,表明云南省的耕地压力空间分布虽有差异,但不存在显著的空间相关性。(5)耕地压力的内外部不同影响因素的影响程度差异明显,资源禀赋、生产投入耕地内部因素对耕地压力起着决定性作用,而经济水平、社会发展等方面的外部因素为间接性影响因素。最后,基于上述分析结果,针对耕地利用中存在的主要问题进行研究,并提出了缓解云南省耕地压力的措施体系。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land resource is an important carrier and foundation of grain production, directly related to the food safety problem of a country or region, and social harmony, political stability, sustained economic development is closely related to the major issues of agriculture and national economy, plays a fundamental irreplaceable role. With the rapid development of the city's total population. The land of urbanization and industrialization, the land resource is more and more pressure, seriously affect the sustainable development of human society. In this context, a comprehensive understanding and proper evaluation of the pressure of cultivated land resources become one of the most important topics in the field of land resource research. The overall quality of cultivated land in Yunnan province is not high, the farmland. At the end of 2014, the loss of water and soil is the most serious in Yunnan Province, is not suitable for farming of slope farmland 25 degrees up to 831 thousand and 700 Hm2, the total land 13.39%. therefore, strengthen the pressure of cultivated land in the province of mountain region has been forced In the corner, not only helps to guide the mountainous province of limited land resources (especially the protection of cultivated land resources), but also alleviate the man - land (land) system pressure, pressure of cultivated land is. Therefore, the research on Yunnan province 16 prefecture (city) land use change data and social economic data as the basis, using the index of pressure in mountain area the improved model of cultivated land, and then in-depth analysis to calculate the pressure of cultivated land of Yunnan Province during 2009-2014, detailed analysis of the content of 3 aspects: (1) combining quantitative and qualitative analysis of cultivated land in Yunnan Province, the pressure of spatial and temporal variation and trend are analyzed; (2) the spatial distribution characteristics and the spatial correlation degree of ESDA and the coefficient of variation analysis of Yunnan provincial land pressure; (3) establishing the econometric model of cultivated land pressure in different influence factors based on regression analysis on the results show. Show: (1) 2009-2014 in Yunnan Province, the overall land pressure has been in a low pressure level, although there is a certain pressure, but the pressure index showed a slight downward trend, falling speed slow down year by year. (2) states (city) the basic trend of pressure index of cultivated land and cultivated land pressure index of the trend remained the same, all decreased to different extent. The cultivated land pressure state (city) land pressure index has decreased, but the pressure of cultivated land grade was almost unchanged, while in the low pressure of cultivated land in state (city) land pressure level (3). The change of cultivated land pressure in Yunnan province is obvious regional difference, overall land pressure (state the city of Yunnan) in Kunming city and Yuxi city in economically developed areas, natural geographical conditions and the northeast of Yunnan Zhaotong city and Nu River in Northwest Yunnan is bad area, farmland pressure low value areas are mainly distributed in the West The southern border states such as Dehong, the natural conditions of Baoshan superior area. (4) the results calculated by the coefficient of variation, coefficient of variation during 2009-2014 in Yunnan province increased gradually stabilized, that states (city) the regional differences of cultivated land pressure increases. The global Moran index did not pass the significance test, showed that the spatial distribution of cultivated land pressure Yunnan province is different, but there is no significant spatial correlation. (5) the difference of different internal and external influence factors of cultivated land pressure significantly, cultivated land resource endowment, production of internal factors play a decisive role on cultivated land pressure, economic level, social development and other aspects of external factors is the indirect influence factors at last, based on the above analysis, to study the major problems existing in the cultivated land use, and puts forward the measures to ease the pressure on arable land in Yunnan province.

【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

【参考文献】