基于LMDI模型的东北地区农业碳排放测度与分解

发布时间：2018-01-15 23:08

本文关键词：基于LMDI模型的东北地区农业碳排放测度与分解　出处：《干旱地区农业研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过对东北三省的农业碳排放进行测度,并基于LMDI(对数平均迪氏分解)模型将其分解为碳排放强度、农业收入、就业结构与人口总量四种驱动效应。研究结果:(1)从东北地区的农业碳排放总量来看,1996—2013年间黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省的农业碳排放呈现逐年上升的趋势,分别增加了0.72、0.63倍和0.52倍,年平均增长率分别为3.23%、2.92%和2.51%,黑龙江碳排放总量和增速最大;(2)从东北地区农业碳排放的内部结构来看,农用资本与农地利用带来的碳排放是东北地区的主要碳源,占比58.65%,其次是牲畜养殖碳排放,占比22.59%;(3)碳排放强度效应对农业碳排放的影响为负,且表现出黑龙江辽宁吉林的特征;1996—2013年间,农业收入效应推动黑龙江、吉林和辽宁的农业碳排放分别增加了1480.57、883.17万t和839.10万t;就业结构效应对黑龙江和辽宁的农业碳排放有正向影响,但对吉林则呈现显著的负向作用;人口总量效应对农业碳排放总量的影响均为正,驱动辽宁的农业碳排放增加了51.02万t。
[Abstract]:Through the measurement of agricultural carbon emissions in three northeastern provinces, and based on the LMDI (logarithmic average di decomposition) model, it is decomposed into carbon emission intensity and agricultural income. The four driving effects of employment structure and total population. The result of the study is: 1) from the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Northeast China, Heilongjiang Province from 1996 to 2013. Agricultural carbon emissions in Jilin and Liaoning provinces increased by 0.72 times and 0.52 times, respectively, with an annual average growth rate of 3.23%. In 2.92% and 2.51, the total amount and growth rate of carbon emission in Heilongjiang was the largest; 2) from the internal structure of agricultural carbon emissions in Northeast China, the carbon emissions from agricultural capital and farmland use are the main carbon sources in Northeast China, accounting for 58.65%, followed by the carbon emissions from livestock farming. The proportion is 22.59. (3) the effect of carbon emission intensity on agricultural carbon emission is negative, and it shows the characteristics of Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin. From 1996 to 2013, the agricultural carbon emissions of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning increased by 1480.57 t, eight million eight hundred and thirty-one thousand and seven hundred t and eight million three hundred and ninety-one thousand t respectively. The effect of employment structure has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang and Liaoning, but has a significant negative effect on Jilin. The total population effect on the total agricultural carbon emissions were all positive, and the agricultural carbon emissions driven by Liaoning increased by 510,200 tons.
【作者单位】：南昌大学经济管理学院;南昌大学计量经济研究会;山东大学经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(15CJL029) 国家级大学生创新创业训练项目(201510403006) 江西省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201410403067)
【分类号】：F327;X71
【正文快照】： 随着人类经济发展水平逐步提高,对资源的需求利用也显著增强,碳排放量已经成为影响世界气候的重要因素,构建低碳社会成为人类的共同诉求。农业生产虽然是以种植业、畜牧业、水产养殖业等行业为主体的基础性产业,但是在农业生产过程中,农业生产投入直接或间接造成了大量的碳排

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