基于地理加权回归模型的江苏省耕地面积与经济发展水平关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 14:43

本文关键词：基于地理加权回归模型的江苏省耕地面积与经济发展水平关系研究　出处：《南京农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,更是现代社会经济发展的基础。耕地资源是支撑我们人类经济社会可持续发展、生态环境可持续发展的一种非常重要的土地资源。我国耕地在绝对数量与总体质量上都难以与我国庞大的人口相匹配,为了我国经济、社会、生态的可持续发展,如何解决经济与耕地的矛盾、人地矛盾便成为了问题的关键。纵观改革开放三十多年,伴随着经济的快速发展,同期江苏省耕地面积也持续递减,耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾、人口增长与耕地减少的矛盾依然十分突出。所以,本文以江苏省为研究对象,探求江苏省耕地面积与经济发展水平的关系,既有其自身的针对性,也有对我国其他发展相对较慢地区的借鉴意义。本文根据收集的江苏省1978-2008年统计数据并利用Excel、ArcGIS软件,采用传统的以长时间序列角度,对江苏省耕地面积与经济发展水平关系进行了现状、数量、程度三个方面的分析。然后,先利用主成分分析模型,计算得出了对江苏省耕地面积变化的三个主要的社会经济影响因素。再从中选出主要影响因子,利用ArcGIS软件,采用地理加权回归模型来分析主要影响因子对耕地面积变化的影响程度,及其时空变化规律。结果表明:一方面,从传统的以长时间尺度进行计量分析的研究方法下,我们得出江苏省通过30年的改革开放,在经济飞速发展的同时,耕地面积也在迅速减少,经济发展水平的地区差异很大,各地级市耕地保护的压力也有很大区别。然而,此种研究法回避了耕地面积与经济发展水平的空间差异性,无法解释两者内部变化的联系。通过对江苏省耕地面积与经济发展水平的现状、数量、程度分析,我们仅能得出这样的结论:耕地面积与经济发展水平之间的关系是矛盾对立的。我们将陷入若发展经济势必减少耕地,若保护耕地势必降低经济发展水平的悖论中。另一方面,通过主成分分析方法和地理加权模型发现,地区生产总值、第三产业比重、年末总人口是影响各市耕地面积变化的主要因素。在江苏省经济的继续发展中,我们可以预见保护耕地与发展经济之间的矛盾将会有所缓和,而人口增长与耕地减少的矛盾则将一直存在。另外,在产业结构调整方面,乐观的可以认为产业结构的优化将有助于江苏经济的可持续发展,改善江苏经济增长模式,使其成为资源节约型、环境友好型,又好又快的发展。随着,耕地保护意识的强化,保护政策的执行,我们在产业结构调整中兼顾耕地保护,在现有基础上进行淘汰、更新、升级,将彻底改变发展经济依赖于侵占土地的局面。
[Abstract]:Land is the material basis of human survival and development, but also the basis of modern social and economic development. Cultivated land resources is to support our human economic and social sustainable development. Ecological environment sustainable development of a very important land resources, China's arable land in absolute quantity and overall quality are difficult to match the huge population of our country, for the sake of our economy, society. The sustainable development of ecology, how to solve the contradiction between economy and cultivated land, the contradiction between man and land has become the key problem. Throughout the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, with the rapid development of the economy. At the same time, the cultivated land area in Jiangsu Province is decreasing, the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development, population growth and cultivated land decrease is still very prominent. Therefore, this paper takes Jiangsu Province as the research object. To explore the relationship between cultivated land area and the level of economic development in Jiangsu Province has its own pertinence. It also has reference significance to other slow developing areas in China. This paper uses the software of Excel ArcGIS according to the statistical data collected from 1978 to 2008 in Jiangsu Province. In this paper, the relationship between cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in terms of traditional long time series. Then, the principal component analysis model is used to analyze the relationship between cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province in three aspects: quantity and degree. Three main social and economic factors of cultivated land area change in Jiangsu Province were calculated. Then the main influencing factors were selected and ArcGIS software was used. The influence degree of main influencing factors on the change of cultivated land area and the regularity of temporal and spatial change are analyzed by using geographical weighted regression model. The results show that: 1). From the traditional econometric analysis of a long time scale, we draw a conclusion that Jiangsu Province through 30 years of reform and opening up, in the rapid development of the economy, the area of cultivated land is also rapidly reduced. The regional difference of economic development level and the pressure of cultivated land protection in each prefectural city are also very different. However, this research method avoids the spatial difference between cultivated land area and economic development level. Through the analysis of the current situation, quantity and degree of cultivated land area and economic development level in Jiangsu Province. We can only draw the conclusion that the relationship between cultivated land area and the level of economic development is contradictory. Protection of cultivated land is bound to reduce the level of economic development in the paradox. On the other hand, through the principal component analysis method and geographical weighted model found that the regional GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry. The total population at the end of the year is the main factor affecting the change of cultivated land area in various cities. In the continuous economic development of Jiangsu Province, we can foresee that the contradiction between the protection of cultivated land and the development of the economy will be eased. In addition, in the aspect of industrial structure adjustment, it is optimistic that the optimization of industrial structure will contribute to the sustainable development of Jiangsu economy. To improve Jiangsu's economic growth model and make it a resource-saving, environment-friendly, good and rapid development. With the strengthening of cultivated land protection awareness, protection policy implementation. We should pay attention to the protection of cultivated land in the adjustment of industrial structure, and eliminate, renew and upgrade on the existing basis, which will completely change the situation that the development of economy depends on the occupation of land.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211;F127

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