气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 00:50

本文关键词： 北方农牧交错带气候变化土地利用垂直和水平方向变动探测方法(FishNet方法) 界线变迁方向变动探测方法(DSAS方法) 定量探测　出处：《地理学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：气候对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的定量影响是目前生态脆弱敏感区对气候变化响应领域的研究热点问题。前人已在气候变化对农牧交错带界线的定性影响方面有较为深刻的认识,但仍缺乏在时间和空间上对气候贡献率进行有针对性的定量辨识。本文利用1970年以来长时间序列的国家气象站点数据和土地利用遥感解译数据,分别提取了基于气候要素和土地利用的20世纪70年代、80年代、90年代和21世纪前10年4个时期的北方农牧交错带界线,通过垂直和水平方向变动探测方法(Fish Net)和界线变迁方向变动探测方法(DSAS)对气候界线与土地利用界线的时空变化进行探测,定量分析了不同时期气候对农牧交错带界线变迁影响的贡献率。结果表明,气候与土地利用界线空间分布格局及气候贡献率在不同时期、不同区域差异较大,在西北地区变幅最小,东北地区变幅最大。在大兴安岭东南缘农田控制水源涵养生态功能区西北段以及内蒙古高原东南缘农、林、牧业生态—生产功能区西北段,气候与土地利用界线空间耦合关系最为密切,在该地区基于Fish Net方法下水平方向上气候贡献率达10.7%~44.4%,垂直方向上达4.7%~55.9%;基于DSAS方法下气候贡献率为1.1%~16.8%。两种方法探测结果大部分趋于一致,但DSAS方法精度高,适用于小范围精确探测;Fish Net方法更简单,适用于精度要求不高、快速直观的统计分析。本研究可为北方农牧交错带内农牧业生产适应气候变化、合理开发土地生产潜力、保护农牧交错带区内生态环境提供科学依据和指导。
[Abstract]:The quantitative influence of climate on the boundary changes of agri-pastoral ecotone in northern China is a hot issue in the field of climate change response in ecologically fragile sensitive areas. The previous studies have shown that the qualitative effects of climate change on the boundaries of agro-pastoral ecotone have been studied. A deeper understanding. However, there is still a lack of quantitative identification of climate contribution rate in time and space. In this paper, long time series of national meteorological site data and land use remote sensing interpretation data have been used since 1970. Based on climatic elements and land use, the boundaries of the northern agro-pastoral ecotone were extracted in 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 21th century, respectively. The temporal and spatial variations of climate boundary and land use boundary are detected by vertical and horizontal change detection method (Fish) and boundary change direction change detection method (DSAS). The contribution rate of climate to the boundary change of agri-pastoral ecotone in different periods was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the spatial distribution pattern of climate and land use boundary and the contribution rate of climate were different in different periods and different regions. In the southeast margin of Daxing'an Mountains farmland control water conservation ecological function area in the northwest section and the southeast edge of Inner Mongolia plateau agriculture forest. The relationship between climate and land use boundary spatial coupling is the most close in the northwest section of animal husbandry ecological-productive function area. In this area, the contribution rate of climate in horizontal direction is 10.7% and 44.4% in vertical direction based on Fish Net method, and 55.9% in vertical direction. Based on the DSAS method, the climatic contribution rate is 1.1% and 16.8.The results of the two methods tend to be consistent, but the DSAS method has high accuracy and is suitable for small-scale accurate detection. Fish Net method is more simple, suitable for statistical analysis with low precision and high speed. This study can adapt agricultural and animal husbandry production to climate change and exploit land production potential reasonably in the northern agricultural and pastoral ecotone. To protect the ecological environment in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone provides scientific basis and guidance.
【作者单位】：中国土地勘测规划院国土资源部土地利用重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室;河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41371002,41401113) 国土资源部土地利用重点实验室开放基金(KLLU201603) 遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金(OFSLRSS201622) 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所优秀青年人才基金项目(2016RC201)~~
【分类号】：F327;P467
【正文快照】： 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101;3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049;4.北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100875;5.河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄050024)1引

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