基于CLUE-S模型的深圳市土地利用变化模拟

发布时间：2018-01-21 00:31

本文关键词： 土地利用变化模拟驱动力 CLUE-S模型情景模拟深圳市　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对土地利用的空间模拟及分析,有助于土地管理部门对城市土地利用时空规律的更好了解和把握,促进城市土地的可持续利用及社会经济的可持续发展。作为快速城市化地区的典型代表,深圳市的土地利用变化显著,可建设用地资源趋于枯竭,土地供需矛盾尤为凸显,对城市土地利用的研究也更为迫切。本文以深圳市为例,采用土地利用转移矩阵分析了深圳市2009-2013年土地利用变化特点,又在传统土地利用变化自然及社会经济驱动因子基础上,纳入由新型POI数据生成的交通服务设施密度、商业服务设施密度及其它公共服务设施密度3个指标,利用Auto-Logistic回归方法分析了深圳市土地利用变化的驱动力,最后基于CLUE-S模型,对深圳市2009-2013年土地利用空间分布进行模拟,并预测了自然演化、耕地保护和生态保护三种情景下深圳市2020年的土地利用空间分布格局。主要研究结论如下:(1)建设用地、林地和园地在深圳市土地利用中占主导地位。与2009年相比,2013年,深圳市耕地、建设用地面积增加,园地、林地、草地、水域和其它用地面积减少。其中,新增耕地主要来自于园地,新增建设用地主要来自于园地、林地、水域和其它用地。2009年到2013年,建设用地、林地空间分布格局相对较为稳定,其它5种地类则不太稳定,相较而言,容易发生地类的转变。(2)Auto-Logistic回归下7种土地利用类型的ROC值都大于传统Logistic回归,都大于0.75,说明本文建立的Auto-Logistic回归模型是有效的,且所选用的驱动因子能够很好解释深圳市土地利用变化。(3)基于CLUE-S模型模拟的深圳市2013年土地利用空间分布,精度评价kappa值为0.896,远大于0.75,表明可以使用该模型和相关参数对深圳市未来土地利用空间分布格局进行预测。(4)三种不同情景的预测结果显示,自然发展情景下深圳市西部和北部的宝安区、龙岗区及南山区土地利用空间变化最大,位于深圳市南部的盐田区和罗湖区最小,其余区域次之;耕地保护情景下耕地面积减少速度较小,且耕地多集中连片分布,可有效保护城市耕地安全;生态保护情景下,各地类空间变化分布与自然演化情景基本一致,但该情景可保护建设用地扩展较多地区如宝安区和龙岗区在不破坏生态环境基础上建设用地有序扩展,同时,也可保证发展比较成熟的地区如福田区内部仅存生态用地不受侵占,有利于城市的生态可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Spatial simulation and analysis of land use will help land management departments to better understand and grasp the space-time law of urban land use. As a typical representative of the rapid urbanization area, the land use change in Shenzhen is remarkable, and the construction land resources tend to dry up. The contradiction of land supply and demand is particularly prominent, and the study of urban land use is more urgent. This paper takes Shenzhen as an example. Land use transfer matrix was used to analyze the characteristics of land use change in Shenzhen from 2009 to 2013, and on the basis of the natural and socio-economic driving factors of traditional land use change. The density of transportation service facilities, commercial services facilities and other public service facilities generated by the new POI data are included. The driving force of land use change in Shenzhen was analyzed by Auto-Logistic regression method. Finally, based on CLUE-S model. The spatial distribution of land use in Shenzhen from 2009 to 2013 was simulated and the natural evolution was predicted. The spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2020 in Shenzhen under the three scenarios of cultivated land protection and ecological protection. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Construction land. Forest land and garden land play a leading role in land use in Shenzhen. Compared with 2009, in 2013, the cultivated land, construction land area increased, garden land, woodland, grassland in Shenzhen. The area of water and other land decreased. Among them, the new cultivated land mainly comes from garden land, and the new construction land mainly comes from garden land, woodland, water area and other land. From 2009 to 2013, construction land. The spatial distribution pattern of forest land is relatively stable, but the other five land types are not very stable. The ROC values of the seven land use types were all higher than that of the traditional Logistic regression under Auto-Logistic regression. It shows that the Auto-Logistic regression model established in this paper is effective. The selected driving factors can explain the spatial distribution of land use in Shenzhen in 2013 based on CLUE-S model. The kappa value of accuracy evaluation is 0.896, far more than 0.75. This model and related parameters can be used to predict the spatial pattern of future land use in Shenzhen. Under the natural development scenario, the spatial change of land use in the west and north of Shenzhen is the biggest, in Longgang District and Nanshan District, the smallest is in Yantian District and Luohu District in the south of Shenzhen City, followed by the other regions. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the reduction rate of cultivated land area is small, and the cultivated land is concentrated and distributed, which can effectively protect the safety of urban cultivated land. Under the environment of ecological protection, the spatial variation and distribution of the local classes are basically consistent with the natural evolution scenario. But this situation can protect the construction land expansion in many areas such as Baoan and Longgang areas without destroying the ecological environment on the basis of the orderly expansion of construction land at the same time. It can also ensure that only ecological land within Futian District is not encroached on, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of urban ecology.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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