关于玉米去库存路径选择的思考——基于加工视角

发布时间：2018-01-22 06:47

本文关键词： 玉米去库存燃料乙醇纤维素乙醇 “三农”问题　出处：《农业经济》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自2012年起玉米产量超越稻谷,成为我国第一大粮食作物。国内外玉米价差的扩大导致玉米及相关替代品进口量激增,进一步加剧了国内供求矛盾。一方面玉米产量快速增长,另一方面加工产业需求放缓,下游加工企业利润减少导致企业开工率普遍不足,临储玉米拍卖成交率低迷,玉米库存高企,阶段性过剩特征较为明显。现阶段如何有效化解玉米供需矛盾、提高粮食流通效率显得尤为重要。据此,本文分析了国内外玉米市场现状,从饲料、淀粉、酒精几类细分市场入手对我国玉米加工产业的发展进行了梳理,并针对不同加工用途、不同副产品利用程度下玉米转化的成本收益进行了量化分析;对比了玉米转化为粮食乙醇、纤维乙醇两种加工方式的经济效益;着重从加工角度提出了缓解玉米库存压力过大的政策建议,以期为有关方面引导玉米产业的健康发展提供参考。
[Abstract]:Since 2012, maize yield has surpassed rice, becoming the largest food crop in China. The increase of price difference of maize at home and abroad has led to a sharp increase in the import of maize and related substitutes. On the one hand, corn production increased rapidly, on the other hand, the demand of processing industry slowed down, and the profit of downstream processing enterprises decreased, which led to the general shortage of the operating rate of enterprises. At present, it is very important to effectively resolve the contradiction between supply and demand of corn and to improve the efficiency of grain circulation. This paper analyzed the current situation of corn market at home and abroad, and combed the development of corn processing industry in China from feed, starch and alcohol market, and aimed at different processing uses. The cost and benefit of maize transformation were analyzed quantitatively under different utilization degree of by-product. The economic benefits of corn conversion to grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol were compared. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to relieve the excessive pressure of corn stock from the point of view of processing so as to provide reference for guiding the healthy development of maize industry.
【作者单位】：国家粮食局科学研究院;
【基金】：粮食行业公益专项“我国粮食现代储备体系及相关技术研究”(编号:201413002)的部分成果
【分类号】：F326.11;F326.5
【正文快照】： 2012年我国玉米产量首次超过稻谷,玉米成为我国第一大粮食作物品种。2003年以来我国玉米产量呈现出比较明显的上升态势,十二年间玉米产量增长了10875万吨,累计增幅达94%,年均增长率为5.67%。从品种结构角度看,玉米阶段性过剩特征较为明显。近三年,随着国内国际玉米价差的扩大,

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