世界香蕉贸易格局变化对中国香蕉市场的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 12:07

本文关键词： 香蕉市场贸易格局因子分析格兰杰因果分析中国世界　出处：《海南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：香蕉是世界鲜果贸易量及消费量最大的水果之一,被联合国粮农组织(FAO)定位为发展中国家继水稻、小麦、玉米之后的第四大粮食作物。据联合国粮农组织(FAO)最新数据统计,2013年全球香蕉收获面积为508万公顷,产量10671.42万吨(2015年FAO数据)；联合国统计司统计(UN comtrade),出口量为1967万吨,进出口贸易额达233.68亿美元(2015年UN comtrade数据)。中国不仅是世界第二大香蕉生产国,也是全球香蕉主要消费国,如今香蕉产业已经成为我国南亚热带地区农业支柱性产业,在热区经济和农村社会发展中发挥着重要作用。在全球经济一体化和贸易自由化的背景下,世界香蕉贸易格局发生了变化,这对中国香蕉市场带来了一定的影响。中国香蕉进口量近年持续增长,出口量却越来越少,甚至微乎其微。世界香蕉贸易格局变化作为外部环境因素与中国香蕉市场内部环境因素相互作用造成了这个局面。本研究着重了解世界香蕉贸易格局的变化对中国香蕉市场带来的影响、中国香蕉市场与国际香蕉市场的关联程度、进口蕉在中国香蕉市场的地位和进口蕉与国产蕉的市场关系,这对中国香蕉产业升级、增强国际竞争力、稳定我国香蕉价格有较大的现实指导意义。鉴于此,本文首先结合文献资料和实地访谈梳理了世界香蕉贸易格局的发展现状和发展趋势。其次,总结了世界香蕉贸易格局的主要特点及世界香蕉贸易格局变化对我国香蕉贸易产生的主要影响。第三,运用格兰杰因果分析模型对进口蕉价格与国产蕉价格的关系进行了研究。第四,运用问卷调查法分别研究了世界香蕉贸易格局变化对我国生产的影响(共取得36个样本,其中香蕉进出口企业25个,香蕉种植企业11个,有效样本共36个)和对我国消费者行为的影响(共取得383个样本,取自全国19个省市,有效样本共316个)。第五,运用因子分析模型研究了在现有世界贸易格局下影响我国消费者消费偏好的因素。最后,本文在前几章的研究成果的基础之上提出了中国香蕉产业持续发展的对策。主要观点有中国香蕉产业应该从本质上改善国产蕉品质,增强中小型香蕉种植企业的管理水平,缩短物流环节以提高国际国内竞争力,香蕉产业人员和政府部门应该制定香蕉品牌战略规划,实现我国香蕉企业“品质”与“品牌”的结合。
[Abstract]:Banana is one of the world's trade volume and the largest consumption of fresh fruits, by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as developing countries after rice, wheat, corn after the fourth major grain crops. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the latest statistics, in 2013 the global banana harvest area of 5 million 80 thousand hectares, yield 106 million 714 thousand and 200 tons (in 2015 FAO data); the United Nations Statistics Division Statistics (UN COMTRADE), the export volume of 19 million 670 thousand tons, import and export trade amounted to $23 billion 368 million (2015 UN COMTRADE data Chinese). Not only is the world's second largest producer of bananas, banana is one of the world's major consumer countries, Now banana industry has become China's south subtropical agriculture pillar industry plays an important role in the economic and social development in rural areas. In the global economic integration and trade liberalization under the background of the world has changed the banana trade pattern, the The banana market in China has brought a certain impact.
Chinese banana imports in recent years of sustained growth, exports are less and less, even very little. The interaction changes the world banana trade pattern as the external environment factors and internal environment factors China banana market caused this situation. This research focuses on understanding the impact of changes in the world trade pattern of banana banana market Chinese, correlation degree of banana market Chinese with the international banana market, the market relationship between imports of bananas in the banana market Chinese status and imports of bananas and homemade banana, the banana industry Chinese upgrade, enhance the international competitiveness of China's stable price of bananas has great practical significance.
In view of this, this paper combined with the literature and field interviews, reviews the development status and development trend of the world banana trade pattern. Secondly, summarizes the main characteristics and main influence the world banana trade pattern changes the world banana trade pattern of China banana trade. Third, using the Grainger causal analysis model of price and imports of bananas the domestic price of banana were studied. Fourth, the effects of changes in the world trade pattern of banana production in China were studied by using the method of questionnaire survey (a total of 36 samples, the banana import and export enterprises 25, banana planting enterprises 11, a total of 36 valid samples) and the influence on China's consumer behavior (a total of 383 samples from 19 provinces and cities nationwide, a total of 316 valid samples). Fifth, using the factor analysis model in the study of the existing pattern of world trade under the influence of China's consumer The factor of fee preference.
Finally, this paper puts forward the Countermeasures of sustainable development of the banana industry Chinese based on research results of previous chapters. The main points of the banana industry Chinese should essentially improve the quality of domestic banana, banana planting strengthening small and medium enterprise management level, shorten the logistics to enhance domestic and international competitiveness, the banana industry personnel and government departments should make the banana brand strategic planning, combined with the implementation of China's banana industry "quality" and "brand".

【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F746;F316.13;F326.13

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