劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响——基于1998—2014年的省级面板数据

发布时间：2018-02-05 23:36

本文关键词： 劳动力成本要素替代产品替代农作物种植结构　出处：《湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于1998—2014年7种主要农作物的省级面板数据,通过构建双向固定效应模型,分析了农业劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响。结果表明:农业劳动力成本每上涨1倍,稻谷、小麦播种面积比例分别降低8.1%和8.0%,玉米、蔬菜、油料播种面积比例分别提高8.0%、6.3%和2.3%;农机对劳动力的替代提升了玉米和稻谷等易于机械种植品种的播种比例,农机总动力每增加1%,玉米和稻谷播种面积比例分别提高0.34%和0.17%;地区非农经济比例通过对农作物的产品替代来应对劳动力成本上升,其对蔬菜等高附加值经济园艺作物播种面积比例有显著正影响,对稻谷、玉米等粮食作物播种比例有显著负影响;农业劳动力成本上升还导致农作物种植结构有向分品种地区集聚的趋势。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of 7 major crops from 1998 to 2014, a bidirectional fixed effect model was constructed. The effect of rising agricultural labor cost on the planting structure of main crops in China is analyzed. The proportion of sowing area of wheat decreased by 8.1% and 8.0, and that of corn, vegetable and oil increased by 8.0% and 2.3% respectively. The substitution of agricultural machinery for labor increased the sowing ratio of mechanically easy varieties such as corn and rice. The ratio of sowing area of maize and rice increased by 0.34% and 0.17 for each increase of total power of agricultural machinery. The proportion of regional non-agricultural economy can cope with the increase of labor cost through the substitution of crops, which has a significant positive effect on the proportion of planting area of high-value-added economic horticultural crops such as vegetables, and also on rice. The sowing ratio of corn and other grain crops has a significant negative effect; The increase of agricultural labor cost also leads to the trend of crop planting structure agglomeration in different regions.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;湖北农村发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71473100);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(71461010701) 国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才支持计划中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2662015PY093)
【分类号】：F249.2;F326.1

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