延迟退休对我国养老保险隐性债务影响的精算研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 04:29

本文关键词： 养老保险隐性债务精算模型延迟退休　出处：《北方工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国现行养老保险制度始建于1950年代。20世纪末,我国对养老保险制度进行改革,变现收现付制为部分积累制。在制度改革的过程中,一些隐患开始显性化,比如养老保险账户存在空帐的情况,这是导致我国养老保险制度出现隐性债务的原因。更严重的是,随着我国人口老龄化现象不断加剧,隐性债务问题愈发凸显,导致我国财政承担的压力也越来越大,严重影响了我国养老保险制度的可持续发展。因此,本文首先分析了隐性债务产生的历史背景,并对其测算的意义进行了详尽的分析。其次在充分解读政策文件以及借鉴前人研究内容的基础上,把隐性债务的测算对象细分为"老人"和"中人",根据个体成本法推导出了隐性债务精算模型,为后文隐性债务规模的测算奠定了理论基础。近年来,我国人口年龄分布出现严重的失衡,老龄化已然成为新的社会问题,以往制定的退休年龄无法满足现今的社会形势,推迟退休年龄的问题亟待解决。延迟退休政策在一定程度上能够有效缓解我国养老保险隐性债务问题,其能否顺利实施与每个人的生活都息息相关,笔者在结合我国国情的基础上,设计出了"渐进式"延迟退休的方案,这种延迟退休年龄的做法符合国际通行标准,并运用保险精算、统计学等基本理论,模拟在延迟退休和不延迟退休的两种情况下,我国养老保险的隐性债务的规模。经过对比不难看出,实施延迟退休年龄的制度有助于减轻养老保险隐性债务给国家财政带来的压力。最后,在依据论文结果以及尊重我国国情的基础上,提出了合理化建议。
[Abstract]:The current old-age insurance system in our country was established in the 1950s. At the end of the 20th century, China reformed the old-age insurance system and realized the pay-as-you-go system as a partial accumulation system. Some hidden dangers began to manifest, such as the existence of pension insurance account empty account, which is the reason for the emergence of hidden debt in China's pension insurance system. More seriously, with the aging of the population in China, the phenomenon continues to intensify. The problem of recessive debt is becoming more and more prominent, which leads to more and more financial pressure, which seriously affects the sustainable development of China's pension insurance system. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the historical background of the emergence of hidden debt. And the significance of its calculation is analyzed in detail. Secondly, on the basis of fully interpreting the policy documents and drawing on the previous research, the object of calculating hidden debt is divided into "the elderly" and "the middle person". Based on the individual cost method, this paper deduces the actuarial model of implicit debt, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later calculation of the scale of implicit debt. In recent years, there is a serious imbalance in the age distribution of the population in China. Aging has become a new social problem, the retirement age set in the past can not meet the current social situation. The problem of delaying retirement age needs to be solved urgently. To a certain extent, the delay retirement policy can effectively alleviate the implicit debt problem of pension insurance in China, and whether it can be implemented smoothly is closely related to the life of everyone. Based on the national conditions of our country, the author designs a "progressive" scheme of delayed retirement, which accords with the international standard, and applies the basic theories of actuarial insurance, statistics and so on. In the case of delayed retirement and non-delayed retirement, the scale of implicit debt of China's pension insurance is simulated. The comparison is not difficult to see. The implementation of the system of delayed retirement age will help to alleviate the pressure on the national finance caused by the hidden debt of the pension insurance. Finally, based on the results of the paper and the respect for the national conditions of our country, the reasonable suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67;F323.89

【参考文献】