我国三大主粮单产水平的时空演进与地区收敛

发布时间：2018-02-27 17:42

  本文关键词： 稻谷 小麦 玉米 主产区 非主产区 粮食单产　出处：《华南农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在分析1978—2015年我国稻谷、小麦和玉米单产时空演进趋势的基础上,检验了全国产区省份、主产区省份和非主产区省份三大主粮单产的收敛情况。研究表明:全国三大主粮单产均在波动变化中显著提升,且主产区省份三大主粮单产基本都持续高于非主产区省份;全国产区省份和非主产区省份三大主粮单产均存在显著的收敛趋势,单产绝对差距持续缩小,初期单产较低省份的单产提升速度更快,离自身稳态值越远的省份单产的提升速度也越快;主产区省份三大主粮单产收敛趋势则不具有普遍性,小麦单产绝对差距未明显缩小,稻谷单产提升速度也无明显差异;与主产区省份相比,非主产区省份三大主粮单产收敛趋势更显著。
[Abstract]:On the basis of analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution trend of grain, wheat and maize yield per unit yield in China from 1978 to 2015, the provinces in the national producing areas were tested. The convergence of the three main grain yields in the main producing areas and the non-major producing areas was studied. The results showed that the three main grain yields in the whole country increased significantly in the fluctuation change, and the yield per unit yield of the three main grain production areas in the main producing areas was basically higher than that in the non-main producing areas. There is a significant convergence trend among the three major grain yield in the provinces of national production areas and non-major production areas. The absolute gap of yield per unit yield continues to narrow, and the increase rate of unit yield in the initial provinces is faster than that in the provinces with lower yields. The more far away from the steady state value, the faster the promotion speed of the yield per unit, the convergence trend of the three main grain yields in the main producing areas is not universal, the absolute difference of wheat yield per unit yield is not significantly reduced, and the rate of raising rice yield per unit yield has no obvious difference. Compared with the provinces in the main producing areas, the convergence trend of the three main grain yields in the provinces of the non-main producing areas is more significant.
【作者单位】： 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(1610052016011) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473253) 中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2016-06)
【分类号】：F326.11
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本文编号：1543672