新疆国家农作物原种场棉花节水灌溉项目效益分析与风险评价

发布时间：2018-02-28 22:17

本文关键词： 棉花节水灌溉效益分析风险评价新疆　出处：《新疆农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新疆位于干旱的内陆地区,全年气候干燥,降雨较少,蒸发量大,其农业特点是“荒漠绿洲、灌溉农业”。因此,以节水灌溉技术示范为核心的高标准节水棉田建设项目是新疆优质棉基地建设的重要内容之一。通过多年优质棉基地建设,新疆节水棉田的建设规模不断扩大,棉花产量和品质大幅提高,对增加农民收入和改善生态环境也产生了重要影响。农业节水灌溉工程项目是关系水资源可持续发展的重要基础性项目,通过对该项目可行性方案的分析与评价,对多种方案的选择做出科学的评价。同时对项目中的经济效益、社会效益、生态效益及风险因素进行分析与评价,论证节水灌溉项目的必要性和可行性,最大限度地避免风险,提高投资效益,为项目可行性建设提供决策依据。本文以新疆国家农作物原种场节水灌溉项目建设为例对棉花节水灌溉的选择方法进行综合分析,对项目所涉及的经济效益、社会效益、生态效益及风险进行指标评价,得出以下结论:1.通过构建的效益分析与风险评价指标体系对国家原种场节水灌溉项目经济效益、社会效益、生态效益及可能存在的风险因素进行定性与定量评价,认为该项目在经济上合理、技术上可行,具有良好的生态效应。同时对项目的风险因素进行评估,为项目可能出现的风险做好应对措施。2.通过对项目相关性进行分析,该项目符合国家节水发展的方向,认为该项目投资结构合理,同时具有显著的带动及指导作用,具有一定的社会经济效益。项目盈亏平衡点(BEP)为49.42%,表明项目对市场的适应能力较强,具有一定的抗风险能力。3.通过对国家原种场节水灌溉项目进行可行性分析,研究棉花节水的新选择、新方向、新技术,综合评价棉花节水灌溉技术选择的利弊。对可行性中技术方案、灌溉方式、设备的选型等建立定量与定性的评价指标体系,通过对项目可行性方案的分析,对多种方案的选择做出科学的评价。
[Abstract]:Xinjiang is located in arid inland area, with a dry climate, less rainfall and large evaporation. Its agricultural characteristics are "desert oasis, irrigated agriculture". The construction project of high standard water-saving cotton field based on demonstration of water-saving irrigation technology is one of the important contents of the construction of high-quality cotton base in Xinjiang. Through the construction of high-quality cotton base for many years, the construction scale of water-saving cotton field in Xinjiang has been continuously expanded. The increase in cotton yield and quality has also had an important impact on increasing farmers' income and improving the ecological environment. The agricultural water-saving irrigation project is an important basic project related to the sustainable development of water resources. Through the analysis and evaluation of the feasibility scheme of the project, a scientific evaluation of the selection of various schemes is made. At the same time, the economic benefit, social benefit, ecological benefit and risk factors in the project are analyzed and evaluated. To demonstrate the necessity and feasibility of water-saving irrigation projects, to avoid risks to the maximum extent and to improve investment efficiency. This paper, taking the construction of water-saving irrigation project of the national crop farm in Xinjiang as an example, comprehensively analyzes the selection method of water-saving irrigation for cotton, and makes a comprehensive analysis of the economic and social benefits involved in the project. The ecological benefit and risk were evaluated, and the following conclusions were drawn: 1. Through the benefit analysis and risk evaluation index system, the economic and social benefits of the water-saving irrigation project in the original seed farm of the country were studied. The ecological benefit and the possible risk factors are evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively. It is considered that the project is economically reasonable, technically feasible and has good ecological effect. At the same time, the risk factors of the project are evaluated. By analyzing the relativity of the project, the project accords with the direction of national water-saving development, and considers that the investment structure of the project is reasonable, and it has a significant driving and guiding role. It has certain social and economic benefits. The breakeven point of the project is 49.42, which indicates that the project has a strong adaptability to the market and has a certain ability to resist risks .3.Through analyzing the feasibility of water-saving irrigation project in the original national seed field, This paper studies the new choice, new direction, new technology of cotton water saving, and synthetically evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of cotton water saving irrigation technology selection. A quantitative and qualitative evaluation index system is established for the feasible technical scheme, irrigation method, equipment selection, etc. Through the analysis of the project feasibility scheme, scientific evaluation of the choice of various options is made.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S562;F323.213

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