西安市建设用地扩展驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 19:20

本文选题：建设用地　切入点：建设用地扩展　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：建设用地扩张是当前政府部门和学术界关注的焦点问题,随着工业化、城镇化进程不断加快和人口的持续增长,建设用地的需求不断增加,未来建设用地扩张与土地供给刚性和耕地保护的矛盾将会日趋尖锐。对于建设用地扩展的驱动力进行研究,有利于指导和控制建设用地的扩展,对于土地资源节约集约利用和经济社会的可持续发展具有重要的意义。论文在前人研究的基础上,借鉴相关的研究经验,以2000—2013年西安市建设用地和相关社会经济资料为原始数据,首先对西安市建设用地的现状和扩展特征分析;其次是西安市建设用地扩展驱动力的定性分析;再运用STIRPAT模型、主成分分析和普通最小二乘法等方法对西安市建设用地扩展驱动力进行定量分析;最后是运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来建设用地规模和各种驱动因子,对未来建设用地驱动力进行同样的STIRPAT模型分析。研究的主要结论如下:(1)西安市建设用地规模不断增长,2000—2013年西安市建设用地扩展速度和扩展强度呈现出相似的变化趋势,西安市建设用地扩展可划分为四个阶段,建设用地类型中,交通运输用地的扩展速度最快,居民点及工矿用地次之,水利设施用地稍微有所下降。(2)主要从自然地理因素、人口增长、经济发展、城市化进程和政策制度等方面对西安市建设用地扩展的驱动力进行了理论分析,揭示了这五个方面因素对于西安市建设用地扩展的影响机理。(3)对2000—2013年西安市建设用地扩展驱动力进行定量分析,测算出各驱动因子对西安市建设用地扩展的边际贡献。得出城市化水平、人口是西安市建设用地扩展的主要驱动因子,人均绿地面积、人均GDP、第二产业产值都是重要驱动因子,而全社会固定资产投资对于建设用地面积的影响相对较小。(4)对未来西安市建设用地规模和各驱动因子进行预测,并对未来建设用地扩展驱动力进行定量分析,得出各驱动因子的边际贡献都有些变化,但总体上与2000—2013年建设用地扩展驱动力分析结果一致。根据研究结论,主要从土地利用规划、建设用地节约集约利用、人口和城市化发展、建设用地挖潜和新增建设用地控制、产业结构优化和土地资源配置等方面提出了西安市建设用地可持续利用的几点政策建议。
[Abstract]:Construction land expansion is the focus of government departments and academia. With the industrialization, urbanization and population growth, the demand for construction land is increasing. In the future, the contradiction between the expansion of construction land and the rigidity of land supply and the protection of cultivated land will be increasingly sharp. The study on the driving force of construction land expansion will be helpful to guide and control the expansion of construction land. It is of great significance for the intensive utilization of land resources and the sustainable development of economy and society. Taking the construction land and related social and economic data of Xi'an city from 2000 to 2013 as raw data, this paper firstly analyzes the present situation and expansion characteristics of construction land in Xi'an city; secondly, qualitatively analyzes the driving force of construction land expansion in Xi'an city; and then uses STIRPAT model. Principal component analysis (PCA) and general least square method are used to quantitatively analyze the driving force of construction land expansion in Xi'an. Finally, the grey GM1 / 1) model is used to predict the scale of construction land and various driving factors in the future. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) the scale of construction land in Xi'an is increasing continuously. The speed and intensity of construction land expansion in Xi'an City from 2000 to 2013 show a similar trend. The expansion of construction land in Xi'an can be divided into four stages. Among the types of construction land, the transportation land is the fastest, the residential and industrial land is the second, and the water conservancy facility land is slightly reduced. In the aspects of population growth, economic development, urbanization process and policy system, the driving force of construction land expansion in Xi'an is theoretically analyzed. This paper reveals the influence mechanism of these five factors on the expansion of construction land in Xi'an, and quantitatively analyzes the driving force of the expansion of construction land in Xi'an from 2000 to 2013. The marginal contribution of each driving factor to the expansion of construction land in Xi'an is calculated. It is concluded that urbanization level, population is the main driving factor of construction land expansion in Xi'an, the per capita green space area, per capita GDP and output value of the secondary industry are all important driving factors. The influence of the whole society fixed asset investment on the area of construction land is relatively small. (4) predict the scale and driving factors of construction land in Xi'an in the future, and carry on quantitative analysis to the driving force of construction land expansion in the future. The results show that the marginal contribution of each driving factor has some changes, but it is consistent with the analysis of the driving force of construction land expansion from 2000 to 2013. According to the research conclusion, it is mainly from land use planning, construction land conservation and intensive utilization. Some policy suggestions on sustainable utilization of construction land in Xi'an are put forward in the aspects of population and urbanization, exploitation of construction land and control of new construction land, optimization of industrial structure and allocation of land resources.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.24

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