中国鱼类产品出口波动及出口潜力探析

发布时间：2018-03-24 12:48

本文选题：鱼类产品　切入点：出口波动　出处：《南京理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：过去20多年间,中国鱼类产品出口规模飞速增长,但受各种因素影响,鱼类产品出口存在波动,产品出口竞争力优势不明显。此外,对短期利润的追求和出口企业逐利的从众性使得中国鱼类产品出口在出口结构上缺乏全局性、及时性的战略指导,出口产品结构和市场布局需要进行调整和优化。本文将重点针对中国鱼类产品出口现状,对总出口进行出口波动分析,从整体层面上为探讨促进出口稳定增长的对策提供参考。在此基础上进一步研究如何面向具体出口市场采取针对性的出口策略,以中国鱼类产品对部分重点市场的出口为例进行出口潜力分析,研究出口潜力判定和出口策略选择的依据。首先,针对中国鱼类产品出口贸易现状,利用1992-2013年中国鱼类产品出口的详细数据,从出口规模和出口结构两方面进行较为系统的分析。其后,分析总结中国鱼类产品总出口的波动规律,并将1992-2013年分为四个以增长型波动为主的考察阶段,利用恒定市场份额模型,从需求、结构和竞争力三个维度分析每个阶段出口增长的主要动因、出口增长贡献度及其对出口稳定增长的影响。在此基础上,鉴于各市场间的诸多差异,整体分析的结论需要进一步面向具体市场具体分析,因此将选取部分重点市场,以中国鱼类产品对其出口情况为研究对象,构建贸易引力模型,分析影响贸易流量的因素,并进行出口潜力测算。最后,根据对总出口整体分析和重点市场具体分析的结果,从需求、结构、竞争力的角度提出整体层面上减缓总出口的增长波动、促进中国鱼类产品出口稳定增长的建议,从影响出口贸易流量的因素和在重点市场的出口潜力现状的角度提出挖掘中国鱼类产品出口潜力的建议以及面向不同市场采取不同出口方针、扩大出口的建议。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years or so, the export of fish products in China has grown rapidly. However, due to various factors, the export of fish products has fluctuated, and the competitive advantage of the export of fish products is not obvious. The pursuit of short-term profits and the conformity of export enterprises make the export of Chinese fish products lack of overall and timely strategic guidance in export structure. The structure and market layout of export products need to be adjusted and optimized. From the overall level, it provides a reference for exploring the countermeasures to promote the stable growth of exports. On this basis, it further studies how to adopt targeted export strategies for specific export markets. Taking the export potential of Chinese fish products from some key markets as an example, this paper studies the basis for judging export potential and choosing export strategies. First, aiming at the current situation of export trade of Chinese fish products, Based on the detailed data of Chinese fish products export from 1992 to 2013, this paper makes a systematic analysis on the export scale and export structure. Then, the fluctuation law of the total export of Chinese fish products is analyzed and summarized. From 1992 to 2013, it is divided into four study stages of growth volatility, and the main reasons of export growth in each stage are analyzed from the three dimensions of demand, structure and competitiveness by using the constant market share model. The contribution of export growth and its impact on stable export growth. On this basis, in view of the many differences among markets, the conclusion of the overall analysis needs to be further oriented towards specific market analysis, so some key markets will be selected. Taking the export of Chinese fish products as the research object, this paper constructs a trade gravity model, analyzes the factors affecting the trade flow, and calculates the export potential. Finally, according to the results of the overall analysis of the total export and the specific analysis of the key markets, From the point of view of demand, structure and competitiveness, the paper puts forward some suggestions for slowing down the fluctuation of total export growth and promoting the steady growth of Chinese fish exports. From the point of view of the factors affecting the export trade flow and the present situation of export potential in key markets, the paper puts forward some suggestions on tapping the export potential of Chinese fish products and taking different export policies for different markets to expand exports.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.5;F752.62

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