基于试验数据的河南省可实现粮食生产潜力与粮食安全研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 17:50

本文选题：可实现粮食生产潜力　切入点：粮食安全　出处：《河南农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：河南省是中国重要的粮食主产省份,于2000年成为全国第一产量大省,用全国1/16的耕地,生产出了全国l/4的小麦、1/10的粮食,粮食生产2006年以来连续九年突破1000亿斤。粮食在连年增产的同时,也要最大限度挖掘其生产潜力,为国家粮食稳定和安全做出贡献。河南省自2005年以来,开始实施测土配方施肥项目,同时结合示范推广试验,各县(市、区)均布设有测土配方施肥试验样点,从试验数据中,可得到全省范围内小麦、玉米/水稻在试验条件下空白施肥区单产、正常施肥区单产和最优施肥区单产等信息,以上信息,可以客观真实的反映河南省粮食的可实现生产潜力特征。本文首先在地统计学、半方差函数理论与方法基础上,根据河南省的试验数据,分小麦、玉米、水稻完成试验半方差函数的计算、理论模型拟合,运用空间插值技术,选用Kriging插值法对样点产量数据进行插值,得到河南省各区域的粮食单产水平;在河南省耕地地力评价基础上,对河南省各县的评价分值与各县作物的平均单产进行相关性分析,验证结果的可信度;根据目前河南省粮食播种情况,对河南省粮食生产潜力进行修正,得到目前条件下的可实现粮食生产潜力,与实际生产能力对比分析,得到各地市的粮食增产空间。其次,在1994-2012年河南省粮食安全评价基础上,通过预测201-2020年河南省的人口数量,粮食实际生产能力及粮食需求,加之河南省的可实现粮食生产潜力,分两种情况对河南省未来的粮食安全状况进行分析。最后,为了确保河南省的粮食安全,提出了河南省粮食可实现生产潜力转变为现实生产能力的战略途径。研究得出如下结论:(1)通过传统统计理论分析发现,试验区小麦、玉米和水稻产量的空间变异系数均在0.1~1.0之间,属于中等变异性,且试验数据均服从正态分布;根据试验样点数据分析,河南省小麦、玉米和水稻在试验条件下,单产的平均值分别为7169.7kg/hm2、8195.1kg/hm2和8234.5kg/hm2。(2)利用4种理论半方差模型拟合和比较,得出试验区小麦最佳拟合模型为线性模型;玉米最佳拟合模型为Gaussian模型;水稻最佳拟合模型为Gaussian模型。(3)经测算,河南省小麦、玉米和水稻可实现均产量分别为7027.55kg/hm2、8038.36 kg/hm2和8280.17kg/hm2;当下河南省的总可实现粮食生产潜力为7598.61万吨,与2012年河南省粮食总产量相比增加了1884.92万吨,增产比例为32.99%。同时,夏粮单产和秋粮单产与河南省耕地地力评价分值呈现正相关关系,相互验证了结果的可靠性和准确性;河南省粮食增产的区域主要在三门峡市、洛阳市、平顶山市、郑州市,其增产比例均达到一半以上。(4)从可实现粮食生产潜力来看,河南省在2015-2020年的粮食安全已经可以达到富裕的消费水平;从河南省的实际粮食生产能力来看,河南省的粮食安全只是达到小康消费水平,距离富裕的消费水平还有一定的差距。
[Abstract]:Henan Province is one of the most important grain producing provinces in China. In 2000, Henan Province became the largest province in the country in terms of grain yield. With 1 / 16 percent of the country's cultivated land, Henan Province produced 1 / 4 percent of the country's grain yield of 1 / 10 percent of wheat. Grain production has exceeded 100 billion catties for nine consecutive years since 2006. While increasing grain production year after year, it is also necessary to tap its production potential to the maximum extent and contribute to the national food stability and safety. Since 2005, Henan Province, Starting to implement the soil testing formula fertilization project, at the same time, in combination with the demonstration and popularization test, all counties (cities and districts) have set up the sample sites for the test of soil test formula fertilization. From the test data, wheat can be obtained throughout the province. Under the experimental conditions, the information of yield per unit yield of blank fertilization area, normal fertilization area and optimal fertilization area, etc. This paper, based on geostatistics, semi-variance function theory and method, according to the experimental data of Henan Province, divides wheat and corn, The semi-variance function of rice experiment was calculated, the theoretical model was fitted, and the spatial interpolation technique was used to interpolate the yield data of the sample points by using Kriging interpolation method, and the grain yield level of every region in Henan Province was obtained. Based on the evaluation of cultivated land fertility in Henan Province, the correlation analysis between the evaluation scores of counties and the average yield of crops in each county is carried out to verify the reliability of the results, according to the current situation of grain seeding in Henan Province, By revising the potential of grain production in Henan Province, we can get the potential of realizable grain production under present conditions, compare with the actual production capacity, and obtain the space for increasing grain production in various cities. Secondly, on the basis of the evaluation of food security in Henan Province from 1994 to 2012, By predicting the population, actual production capacity and food demand of Henan Province during 201-2020 and the potential of realizable grain production in Henan Province, the future situation of food security in Henan Province is analyzed in two different situations. In order to ensure the food security in Henan Province, a strategic approach is put forward to transform the potential of grain production into real production capacity in Henan Province. The conclusion of the study is as follows: 1) through the analysis of traditional statistical theory, it is found that wheat in the experimental area, The spatial coefficient of variation of maize and rice yield is between 0.1 and 1.0, which belongs to moderate variability, and the experimental data are all distributed from normal to normal. According to the analysis of test data, wheat, maize and rice in Henan Province were tested under the experimental conditions. The average yield per unit yield was 7169.7 kg / hm ~ 2 8195.1 kg / hm ~ 2 and 8234.5 kg / hm ~ 2 路hm ~ 2 路hm ~ (2)) by using four theoretical semi-variance models, it was concluded that the best fitting model of wheat was linear model, the best fitting model of maize was Gaussian model. The best fitting model of rice is Gaussian model. The average realizable yield of wheat, maize and rice in Henan Province is 7027.55 kg / hm ~ 2 / hm ~ (2) kg/hm2 and 8280.17 kg / hm ~ (-2), respectively. The total potential of grain production in Henan Province is 75.9861 million tons. Compared with the total grain yield of Henan Province in 2012, the total grain yield increased by 18.8492 million tons and the yield increased by 32.990.At the same time, there was a positive correlation between the unit yield of summer grain and the yield of autumn grain and the evaluation score of cultivated land fertility in Henan Province, which verified the reliability and accuracy of the results. The main areas of grain production increase in Henan Province are Sanmenxia City, Luoyang City, Pingdingshan City, and Zhengzhou City, where the proportion of increase in grain production has reached more than half. The food security of Henan Province in 2015-2020 can already reach the rich consumption level, from the actual grain production capacity of Henan Province, the food security of Henan Province only reaches the well-off consumption level, and there is still a certain gap between the rich consumption level and the food security in Henan Province.
【学位授予单位】：河南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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