农民工市民化经济效益分析

发布时间：2018-04-05 13:27

本文选题：农民工市民化　切入点：经济增长　出处：《暨南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的加快,农民工市民化的问题日益受到社会的关注,成为民生领域的热点问题。农民工群体为我国产业化的发展提供了重要的支持,然而他们工资水平低、工作时间长、生活条件差却是不争的事实。目前关于农民工市民化对经济增长的影响方面的数理分析研究较少,本文主要从以下三个角度进行研究:第一,运用超越对数生产函数和偏最小二乘法分析农民工对我国经济增长的贡献,结果表明农民工对第二、三产业经济增长的平均贡献率为8.1%,城镇职工对第二、三产业经济增长的贡献是农民工的1.64倍;然而,城镇职工的平均分享率却是农民工的5.52倍,而且这一差距还在继续扩大,农民工未能均等地分享经济发展的成果;第二,通过构建农民工市民化的经济效益理论模型,运用一般均衡的分析方法,发现农民工市民化主要通过提升人力资本和城市规模从而增加人均收入、人均消费和经济总量;第三,运用“推-拉”模型构建农民工市民化进程的时间序列指标体系,测度了我国1985-2013年农民工市民化进程指数。并运用农民工市民化进程指数数据与人均消费和人均收入构建VAR模型,实证分析了农民工市民化的经济效益。发现农民工市民化对于人均收入和人均消费具有长期的正向影响。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the urbanization process of our country, the issue of peasant workers' citizenship has been paid more and more attention by the society, and has become a hot issue in the field of people's livelihood.Migrant workers provide important support for the development of industrialization in China, but it is an indisputable fact that their wages are low, their working hours are long, and their living conditions are poor.At present, there are few mathematical and theoretical studies on the impact of peasant workers' urbanization on economic growth. This paper mainly studies from the following three angles: first,Using the logarithmic production function and partial least square method to analyze the contribution of migrant workers to China's economic growth, the results show that the average contribution rate of migrant workers to the economic growth of the second and third industries is 8.1, and that of urban workers to the second.The contribution of the economic growth of the third industry is 1.64 times of that of the migrant workers; however, the average share rate of urban workers is 5.52 times that of the migrant workers, and the gap continues to widen, and the migrant workers fail to share the fruits of economic development equally; second,By constructing the economic benefit theory model of peasant workers' urbanization and using the general equilibrium analysis method, it is found that the urbanization of migrant workers mainly increases per capita income, per capita consumption and total economic volume by enhancing human capital and urban scale. Third,Based on the "push-pull" model, this paper constructs the time series index system of the process of migrant workers' citizenship, and measures the index of the process of migrant workers' urbanization from 1985 to 2013 in China.Using the index data of migrant workers' urbanization process and per capita consumption and per capita income to construct VAR model, this paper empirically analyzes the economic benefits of migrant workers' urbanization.It is found that the urbanization of migrant workers has a long-term positive effect on per capita income and consumption.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F299.2

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