农民气候变化认知及工程类适应措施分析

发布时间：2018-04-19 03:02

本文选题：气候变化 + 农民认知　；参考：《湖北农业科学》2015年22期

【摘要】：农业生产受气候变化影响较大,农民对气候变化的认知决定了他们应对气候变化的行为。本研究基于对华北5省农户的调查,分析了农民对气候变化认知及工程类适应措施情况;用实际气候数据对农民对气候变化认知的正确性进行了评估,并用Logistic模型分析了正确认知气候变化和工程措施采取的决定因素。结果发现,华北平原地区大部分农民已感知到气候变化,对气温变化认知的正确性高于降水变化。影响农民对气温变化和降水变化的显著因素有所不同,前者主要有性别、教育、务农年限、耕地规模、农业生产相关培训、村落的偏远程度、是否在灌溉区内、是否发生旱灾、收到灾害预警信息次数等;后者主要有教育、家庭收入、村落偏远程度、是否在灌区范围、灾害类型以及村里各种协会等;农民采取工程类适应措施的决定因素有务农年限、家庭财富、拥有地面管道、收到灾害预警信息次数、水利措施状况等。并据此提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Agricultural production is strongly affected by climate change, and farmers' perceptions of climate change determine their behavior in coping with climate change.Based on the survey of farmers in five provinces of North China, this study analyzes farmers' cognition of climate change and the adaptation measures of engineering, and evaluates the correctness of farmers' cognition of climate change with actual climate data.Logistic model is used to analyze the determinants of correct cognition of climate change and engineering measures.The results show that most farmers in North China Plain have perceived climate change, and the correctness of cognition of temperature change is higher than that of precipitation change.The factors that influence the change of temperature and precipitation are different. The former mainly include gender, education, years of farming, cultivated land scale, training related to agricultural production, the remoteness of villages, whether it is in irrigated areas, whether there is drought or not.The number of times that disaster warning information has been received; the latter mainly includes education, family income, the remoteness of villages, whether or not the scope of irrigation areas, the types of disasters and various associations in the village, etc. The decisive factors for farmers to adopt engineering adaptation measures are the number of years of working in agriculture,Family wealth, have ground pipelines, receive disaster warning information times, water conservancy measures and so on.And put forward the policy suggestion accordingly.
【作者单位】：河南农业大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：加拿大国际发展研究中心项目(107093-001) 国家社科基金一般项目(14BGL093) 河南省高校首批哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划项目(2012-CXTD-03) 河南省教育厅哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(2013-ZG-006)
【分类号】：F323;S162

【相似文献】