移民安置区的土地人口承载力研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 07:29

本文选题：土地人口承载力 + 生态足迹法　；参考：《成都理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：金沙江下游正处于开发期,水电站的建设涉及溪洛渡、向家坝、白鹤滩和乌东德四个电站。水电站的建设意味着大批移民安置工作的展开,在此过程中要合理界定土地人口承载力即移民安置的过程中安置区的环境人口容量“阀值”,这对于处理好人地矛盾,揭示人口、资源环境、粮食三者之间的内在关联有着重要意义。本文根据四川省德昌县移民安置发展规划的要求,立足于实际的土地结构和土地资源开发利用现状,按照时间顺序对历年的生态环境现状进行分析,对德昌县土地人口承载力进行分析和探究,并提出土地资源可持续发展的意见和策略。土地问题已成为移民安置工作中的核心问题,通过此项研究,探寻更为合理且实际的土地人口承载力的分析方法,为构建协调持续发展的人地关系提供科学合理的理论依据。本文在评述国内外关于土地人口承载力的定性定量研究的基础上,综合运用人口适度理论、资源稀缺理论和可持续发展理论,结合历年统计年鉴并对比实际调研的数据,在收集了近5年的农业生态数据基础上量化了德昌县的土地人口承载量;本文并未单一的选取某一模型做定量分析,而是在大量文献研究过程中选取了生态足迹法和生态农业区域法两种分析方法从不同角度分别对德昌县土地人口承载力进行详细分析。生态足迹法将土地资源划分为耕地、林地、草地、水域、化石能源用地、建筑用地6种类型的土地,该方法计算一定生态资源条件下,要维持固定人口和社会经济生产规模必须提供的用来保证资源消费和废弃物吸收的必需生物生产面积,并综合利用人口、农业等统计数据从生物能源消费和能源消费两方面计算总生态足迹,最后得出其生态足迹和承载力,客观的分析了各类型土地的生态赤字或者盈余现状,从而发现当下土地利用模式的弊端,并找准具有较大发展潜力的土地利用类型。农业生态区域法从太阳辐射、温度、水份,土壤等自然生态因素对作物的影响出发,从作物光合作用入手,依据作物能量转化过程,根据递减系数逐步衰减来估算土地生产潜力。文中计算德昌县主要作物的光合生产潜力、气候生产潜力、土壤生产潜力和土地生产潜力,并按人均热量、蛋白质和脂肪的消耗测算土地资源的承载能力,研究了德昌县食物消费结构和土地资源承载力的主要影响因素。文中创造性的将两个主流模型相结合定量和定性的分析同一地区的土地人口承载力,根据研究结果客观的分析两种模型的利弊,从而发现同一区域选择不同的土地人口承载力计算模型,其计算结果和分析过程都会对最终制定和实施土地战略决策产生很大的影响。并在大量文献和实例研究中发现一个普遍存在的结论倾向,即基于生态足迹的人口承载力模型计算出的人口承载量要比农业生态区域法计算所得的人口承载量小很多,这一数据从整体自然生态的角度提醒我们在开发地球资源的同时要综合考虑到人与自然的可持续发展,对区域土地人口承载力的预测结果不能过于乐观。这也正是以往文献中存在的研究漏洞。本文在对德昌县进行实例研究分析的过程中发现了生态足迹法和农业生态区域法各自的局限性,找出两种分析方法之间的补充关系。从而得出,在进行土地人口承载力分析中,我们不可以单方面依据某一模型乐观或者悲观的看待当前区域土地的承载能力,应将两种方法结合使用,从而让研究结果更能正确的指导地区土地规划和开发利用战略。根据两种方法的理论背景和研究各自的倾向性,农业生态区域法更适合用于预测,根据当地作物产量所能提供的用来确定土地承载力的上限值,然后以生态足迹法的研究结果作为约束条件,建立社会、经济、资源、环境多背景下土地承载力指标值,并对农业生态区域法进行实际校正,确定多目标下所能支撑的最大人口数量,进而对战略目标和目标的实施过程中进行适时修正。
[Abstract]:The lower reaches of the Jinsha River are in the development period. The construction of hydropower stations involves Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Baihe beach and udong de four power stations. The construction of hydropower stations means a large number of resettlement work. In this process, the land population bearing capacity, that is, the "threshold" of the environmental population capacity of the resettlement area, is a reasonable definition of the land population carrying capacity. It is of great significance to deal with the contradictions between the good people, reveal the population, the resources and the environment, and the internal relations between the three grain people. This paper, based on the requirements of the development planning of the resettlement in Dechang County of Sichuan Province, based on the actual land structure and the status of the exploitation and utilization of land resources, analyses the current ecological environment according to the order of time. The land population bearing capacity of Dechang county is analyzed and explored, and the suggestions and strategies for the sustainable development of land resources have been put forward. The land problem has become the core problem in the resettlement work. Through this study, the analysis method of the more reasonable and practical land population carrying capacity is explored to provide the harmonious and sustainable development of the human land relationship. On the basis of reviewing the qualitative and quantitative research on the carrying capacity of land population at home and abroad, this paper comprehensively uses the theory of population moderation, the theory of resource scarcity and the theory of sustainable development, and quantifies the agricultural ecological data on the basis of the collection of the agricultural ecological data of nearly 5 years, combining the statistical yearbook of the past year and comparing the actual survey data. The land population bearing capacity of Dechang County, this paper does not choose a single model to do quantitative analysis, but in the process of literature study, the ecological footprint method and ecological agricultural region method are selected to analyze the land population bearing capacity of Dechang county from two different angles. It is divided into 6 types of land, which are cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water area, fossil energy land and construction land. Under the conditions of certain ecological resources, it is necessary to maintain the necessary biological production area for the fixed population and the scale of social and economic production to ensure the consumption of resources and the absorption of waste, and to make comprehensive use of the population, agriculture and other systems. The total ecological footprint was calculated from two aspects of biological energy consumption and energy consumption. Finally, the ecological footprint and carrying capacity were obtained. The ecological deficit or the surplus status of various types of land were analyzed objectively, and the disadvantages of the current land use model were found and the land use type with great potential for development was found. The domain method starts with the effects of natural ecological factors such as solar radiation, temperature, water and soil on crops, starting with crop photosynthesis, according to the process of crop energy conversion, and estimating the potential of land production according to the gradual attenuation coefficient. In this paper, the photosynthetic production potential, climate production potential and soil production potential of the main crops in Dechang county are calculated. With the potential of land production and the calculation of the carrying capacity of land resources according to the consumption of per capita heat, protein and fat, the main influencing factors of the food consumption structure and the carrying capacity of land resources in Dechang county were studied. The two mainstream models were creatively combined to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the land population bearing capacity of the same area. The results of the study objectively analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two models, and find the different calculation models of the land population carrying capacity in the same region. The results and the analysis process will have a great impact on the final formulation and implementation of the land strategic decision. The population carrying capacity of the population bearing capacity model based on the ecological footprint is much smaller than that calculated by the agro ecological region method. This data from the point of view of the whole natural ecology reminds us of the sustainable development of human and nature in the development of the earth resources and the bearing of the regional land population. The results of the prediction of the force can not be too optimistic. This is also a research loophole in the previous literature. In this paper, the limitations of the ecological footprint method and the agro ecological region method were found in the case study of Dechang County, and the complementary relationship between the two analytical methods was found out. In the analysis, we can not view the carrying capacity of the current land in an optimistic or pessimistic view of a certain model. We should combine the two methods, so that the results can guide the strategy of land planning and development and utilization more correctly. According to the theoretical background of the two methods and the study of their respective tendencies, agricultural ecology Regional method is more suitable for forecasting, according to the local crop yield can be used to determine the upper limit of land carrying capacity, and then take the results of ecological footprint method as a constraint condition to establish the index value of land carrying capacity under the multi background of social, economic, resource and environment, and make practical correction to the agro ecological region method and determine the multi-objective. The maximum number of population that can be supported can be corrected timely in the implementation of strategic objectives and objectives.

【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;S181

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