云南思茅松碳汇造林项目减排量、经济价值及其敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 01:32

本文选题：中国核证减排量 + 碳汇造林项目　；参考：《生态环境学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：基于碳汇造林项目方法学和改进的项目减排量经济价值评价模型,以云南省思茅松碳汇造林项目为例,从经济学视角对碳汇造林项目的减排量及其经济价值进行了核算和评估,并就其经济价值的敏感性进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)在当前技术条件下,云南省思茅松碳汇造林项目减排效应明显;其中,单位面积年均和20年累计碳减排量分别为7.0 t?hm~(-2)和140.9t?hm~(-2),而项目面积为55 766 t和1 115 317 t;(2)在当前市场条件下,碳汇造林项目减排量交易可提高项目业主的经济收益,但单位面积经济价值低;具体而言,项目面积年均和累计碳减排量贴现值分别为42.3万元和846.3万元,而单位面积仅为0.005万元和0.104万元;(3)从不同价值量评价指标看,在较长的运行周期内,林业碳汇项目减排量的经济价值不仅对碳减排强度变化反应敏感,而且对碳价格、贴现利率等市场环境变化敏感。为充分发挥林业活动的减排效应,政府部门应引导林地规模有限的林农合作开发林业碳汇项目,探索适合农户参与的林业碳汇项目合作开发模式;而项目业主不仅要加强碳汇造林技术的研究,加强森林经营管理,还要提高对碳市场价格波动及其驱动因素的关注度和警惕性,并预防森林火灾导致的碳排放。
[Abstract]:Based on the methodology of carbon sink afforestation project and the improved evaluation model of economic value of carbon sequestration, the carbon sequestration and its economic value of carbon sink afforestation project were calculated and evaluated from the perspective of economics, taking Simao pine afforestation project in Yunnan province as an example. The sensitivity of its economic value is tested empirically. The results show that under the current technical conditions, the emission-reduction effect of Pinus simaoensis carbon sink afforestation project in Yunnan Province is obvious; among them, The average annual and 20 years cumulative carbon emission reductions per unit area were 7.0 t / h ~ (2) and 140.9 t / h ~ (-1) ~ (2) respectively, while the project area was 55 766 t and 1 115 317 t / 2 respectively. Under the current market conditions, the carbon sink afforestation project emission-reduction trading could increase the economic benefits of the project owners. But the economic value of unit area is low; in particular, the discounted value of project area per year and cumulative carbon abatement is 423000 yuan and 8.463 million yuan respectively, while the unit area is only 50 yuan and 1040 yuan. In a long operating period, the economic value of emission reduction of forestry carbon sink projects is not only sensitive to the change of carbon emission reduction intensity, but also sensitive to the change of market environment such as carbon price, discount interest rate and so on. In order to give full play to the emission reduction effect of forestry activities, government departments should guide forestry farmers to cooperate in developing forestry carbon sequestration projects with limited forest land scale, and explore the cooperative development mode of forestry carbon sequestration projects suitable for farmers to participate in. The project owners should not only strengthen the research of carbon sink afforestation technology, strengthen forest management, but also increase the attention and vigilance of carbon market price fluctuation and its driving factors, and prevent carbon emissions caused by forest fire.
【作者单位】：北京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：甘肃省甘南州迭部县项目(2016HXFWJGY014) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(11&ZD042) 内蒙古扎兰屯市项目(2014HXZXJGXY025)
【分类号】：F326.2;X196

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