基于生态系统服务价值的土地利用结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 11:15

本文选题：生态系统服务价值 + 土地利用结构优化　；参考：《西北大学》2008年硕士论文

【摘要】： 在生态系统服务功能以及土地利用结构优化理论研究的基础上,结合国内外目前的研究进展,以咸阳市为例,估算了市域尺度的生态系统服务价值;通过相关性分析、通径分析等,对影响生态系统服务总价值的主要因素进行了研究,进而运用灰色预测、移动平均预测、指数平滑预测等方法,预测了未来生态系统服务价值的变化;最后,以生态系统服务价值最大为优化目标,并以当地土地资源的现状利用特点、社会经济发展目标以及土地利用总体规划的要求等为约束条件,综合考虑相关数据的可操作性,建立灰色线性规划模型,并应用此模型对市域尺度上土地利用结构优化配置方案及策略进行了决策分析。主要结论如下: (1)咸阳市生态系统服务价值正在逐年递增,从1996年的71.19亿元增加到2005年的77.19亿元,9年间增加了6.00亿元,年平均增加率为0.94%,生态系统服务价值增加的主要原因是生态系统服务价值系数较高的林地以及园地面积的大幅度增加。 (2)2010年咸阳市的生态系统服务预测总价值为82.37亿元,高于2005年的总价值,这说明咸阳市生态系统服务价值将继续增加,15年时间将可能增加11.18亿元,年平均增加率为1.12%,咸阳市生态系统服务功能逐渐增强,生态环境进一步改善。 (3)通过灰色线性规划的决策分析,得出了咸阳市土地利用结构优化的三种方案,并且每种规划方案的生态系统服务总价值都高于82.50亿元,大于2005年咸阳市生态服务价值77.19亿元及2010年预测值82.37亿元,说明无论哪种优化方案,所取得的生态效益都好于目前现状及其发展趋势。 (4)论文给出了大力挖潜宜农土地、切实保护耕地、增加林地和水域的面积、严格控制建设用地的土地利用战略,给出了保障生态系统的良性循环、促进区域可持续发展的土地利用结构调整的基本方针和对策。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the study of ecosystem service function and land use structure optimization theory, combined with the current research progress at home and abroad, taking Xianyang city as an example, this paper estimates the value of ecosystem service on the scale of city. Based on path analysis, the main factors affecting the total value of ecosystem services are studied, and then the changes of ecosystem service value in the future are predicted by means of grey prediction, moving average prediction, exponential smoothing prediction and so on. Taking the maximum value of ecosystem services as the optimization objective, and taking the characteristics of local land resources utilization, the social and economic development objectives and the requirements of the overall land use planning as constraints, the maneuverability of relevant data is considered synthetically. The grey linear programming model is established, and the optimal allocation scheme and strategy of land use structure on the city scale are analyzed by using this model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the value of ecosystem services in Xianyang is increasing year by year, from 7.119 billion yuan in 1996 to 7.719 billion yuan in 2005, an increase of 600 million yuan in nine years. The annual average increase rate is 0.94. The main reason for the increase of ecosystem service value is the increase of forest land and garden area with higher ecosystem service value coefficient. (2) the predicted total value of ecosystem services in Xianyang City in 2010 is 8.237 billion yuan, which is higher than the total value in 2005, which indicates that the value of ecosystem services in Xianyang City will continue to increase and may increase by 1.118 billion yuan in 15 years. The annual average increase rate is 1.12. The ecosystem service function of Xianyang City is gradually enhanced and the ecological environment is further improved. 3) through the decision analysis of grey linear programming, three schemes of land use structure optimization in Xianyang city are obtained, and the total value of ecosystem service of each plan is more than 8.25 billion yuan. The value of ecological service in Xianyang City was 7.719 billion yuan in 2005 and 8.237 billion yuan in 2010, which shows that the ecological benefit obtained by both optimization schemes is better than the present situation and development trend. 4) the paper puts forward the strategy of land use, which is suitable for agriculture, effectively protects cultivated land, increases the area of forest land and water area, strictly controls the land use of construction land, and provides a virtuous circle to protect the ecosystem. The basic policy and countermeasure of land use structure adjustment to promote regional sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F301.2;X171.1

【引证文献】