中国林业PMI指数的统计检验

发布时间：2018-05-16 21:15

  本文选题：林业PMI指数 + 时差相关分析　； 参考：《统计与决策》2017年08期

【摘要】：林业PMI是我国乃至全球范围内第一个监测林业经济运行态势的月度指标,其科学性和领先性决定了它的实践和应用价值。文章使用时差互相关分析检验了林业PMI及其进出口指数的领先性,结果显示林业PMI领先于我国木材加工行业数据1个月感知行业运行走势,林业PMI出口指数领先海关出口数据0~1个月,林业PMI进口指数领先海关进口数据1~3个月。
[Abstract]:Forestry PMI is the first monthly index to monitor forestry economic running situation in our country and even the whole world. Its scientific nature and leading character determine its practice and application value. The paper tests the forerunner of forestry PMI and its import and export index by means of time difference cross-correlation analysis. The results show that forestry PMI is ahead of China's timber processing industry data in one month's perceived operation trend. The forestry PMI export index leads the customs export data by 0 ~ 1 month, and the forestry PMI import index leads the customs import data by 1 ~ 3 months.
【作者单位】： 中央财经大学经济学院;中国林业科学研究院科信所;北京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国际热带木材组织(ITTO)项目(TFL-PD 017/09 Rev.2(M))
【分类号】：F326.2
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本文编号：1898407