基于CLUE-S模型的海岛地区土地利用变化情景模拟

发布时间：2018-05-17 14:29

本文选题：海岛地区 + CLUE-S模型　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着我国海洋发展战略的制定与实施，海洋经济的迅速发展，海岛所独有的区位、资源优势日益凸显，对海岛进行开发利用的需求越来越迫切。海岛地区蕴含着巨大的开发潜力，但也存在着生态环境脆弱、水资源约束等影响可持续发展的制约因素。海岛地区作为陆地与海洋之间的缓冲区域，在自然、社会、经济以及发展形态等方面与其他地区存在显著差异。本文通过对海岛地区土地利用/土地覆被变化的研究，分析海岛地区土地利用的变化趋势，选取表征海岛地区空间特征的土地利用变化驱动因子，基于CLUE-S模型，，对海岛地区未来土地利用布局的变化进行多情景模拟。研究结果可为海岛地区土地利用优化布局提供依据，也可为海岛地区海洋经济发展方向的设定提供参考。论文的主要研究思路是：以舟山市岱山县岱山岛为研究区域，通过梳理文献、汇总历史数据等手段分析研究区域的土地利用变化趋势，结合所调查和收集的基础数据，提取出能体现海岛地区土地利用特点的驱动因子；应用Logistic回归模型确定影响研究区域土地利用变化因素的概率分布；应用CLUE-S模型以2009年的土地利用现状模拟2012年的土地利用空间分布，将得出的模拟结果与2012年土地利用实际空间分布进行对比分析，以此为思路进行CLUE-S模型的相关参数进行调整。在此基础上，基于新区发展、陆海统筹和生态保护这三种不同的政策背景，设定三种土地利用情景，应用Markov链预测三种情景下的土地利用需求数量，运用CLUE-S模型模拟不同政策背景下2020年的土地利用变化状况，并对预测结果进行对比分析，最后得出研究结论。论文的主要研究结论是：（1）从土地利用变化趋势来看，研究区域未来的土地变化表现为耕地面积增加，林地、其他农用地面积减少，其他农用地部分转为耕地，而建设用地的大量扩张使得滩涂及其他未利用地面积大幅减少；（2）海岛地区的土地利用变化与经济社会发展密切相关：耕地和其他农用地的变化与当地产业结构、粮食产量等有着较为密切的关系；建设用地的变化与当地产业结构、财政收入水平、投资水平、居住用地面积等都有着较为密切的关系；滩涂变化的影响因素基本与建设用地一致；同时，自然条件（如区位、地形坡度）也会对土地利用变化产生较大的影响；（3）从三种情景对2020年的预测结果来看，得出的土地利用空间布局符合研究区域社会经济发展的总体方向。结果显示，研究区域未来将会面临生态用地布局、耕地布局与建设用地布局之间的矛盾。如何同时兼顾粮食安全、经济社会发展与生态安全，将是研究区域未来的课题之一。（4）参数调整后的CLUE-S模型，能够较好地对不同社会经济发展情景的海岛地区土地利用空间布局进行模拟；研究结果可为土地利用总体规划编制时的空间布局提供依据，也可为海岛地区经济社会发展战略与相关政策的制定提供参考，使得海岛地区的经济社会发展政策更具有科学性、前瞻性与实用性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development and implementation of China's marine development strategy, the rapid development of marine economy, the unique location and resource advantages of the island are becoming increasingly prominent, and the demand for exploitation and utilization of the island is becoming more and more urgent. As a buffer zone between land and sea, the island region has significant differences with other areas in nature, society, economy and development form. Through the study of land use / land cover change in the island area, the change trend of land use in the island area is analyzed, and the island area is selected to represent the island area. The spatial characteristics of land use change driving factor, based on the CLUE-S model, simulate the changes of land use layout in the island area in the future. The results can provide the basis for the optimal layout of land use in the island area, and also provide reference for the setting of the ocean economic development direction of the island area.
The main research ideas of this paper are: taking Daishan island of Daishan County of Zhoushan as the research area, by combing the literature and summarizing the historical data, this paper analyzes the trend of land use change in the study area, and extracts the driving factors that can reflect the land use characteristics of the island area with the basic data collected and collected; and the Logistic regression is applied. The model determines the probability distribution of the factors affecting the land use change factors in the study area, and uses the CLUE-S model to simulate the land use spatial distribution in 2012 by using the land use status in 2009, and compares the simulated results with the actual spatial distribution of land use in 2012. In this way, the related parameters of the CLUE-S model are carried out. On this basis, based on the three different policy backgrounds of new area development, land and sea planning and ecological protection, three land use scenarios are set up, Markov chain is used to predict the land use demand under three scenarios, and CLUE-S model is used to simulate the situation of land use change under different policy background in 2020, and the forecast results are carried out. At last, the conclusion of the study is obtained by comparison and analysis.
The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows: (1) from the trend of land use change, the future land change in the study area shows the increase of cultivated land, the reduction of woodland, other agricultural land area, and the conversion of other agricultural land to cultivated land, while the large expansion of the construction land makes the area of beach and other unused land greatly reduced; (2) the island area The change of land use is closely related to the economic and social development: the change of cultivated land and other agricultural land has a close relationship with the local industrial structure and grain output, and the change of the construction land has a close relationship with the local industrial structure, the level of financial income, the level of investment, the land accumulation, and so on. The influencing factors are basically consistent with the construction land; at the same time, natural conditions (such as location, terrain slope) will also have a greater impact on land use change. (3) from the forecast results of the three scenarios in 2020, the spatial distribution of land use accords with the overall direction of the social and economic development of the research area. The future will face the contradiction between the layout of ecological land, the layout of cultivated land and the layout of the construction land. How to take into account the food security, the economic and social development and the ecological security will be one of the topics in the future of the study area. (4) the CLUE-S model after the adjustment of parameters can be better for the land benefit of the island area with different social and economic development scenarios. The results can provide the basis for the spatial layout of the overall planning of land use, and provide a reference for the economic and social development strategy and relevant policy formulation of the island area, and make the economic and social development policy of the island region more scientific, forward-looking and practical.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

【参考文献】