云南省蔬菜价格波动问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 04:55

本文选题：蔬菜价格 + 蔬菜供给　；参考：《云南农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：蔬菜与居民生活息息相关,是广大消费者的生活必需品,不仅是农民增收的重要来源,也在很大程度上决定了居民的营养水平和膳食结构。蔬菜产业作为云南一大朝阳产业,“十二五”期间已取得一定成果,为进一步促进蔬菜产业发展,增加农民收入,“十三五”期间,省委省政府出台了《云南高原特色农业现代产业发展规划(2016-2020年)》,进一步推进蔬菜等特色产业的发展,促进农业农村经济发展。然而,近年来受不同因素的影响,蔬菜价格暴涨暴跌的现象屡屡出现,严重影响了蔬菜生产者与消费者生产生活,既增加了菜农的种植风险,不利于农民增收致富,也给广大消费者带来了巨大的经济压力。因此,研究分析云南省蔬菜价格波动的特征、趋势及影响因素,对于引导蔬菜产业持续健康发展,促进农民增收,改善居民消费水平,维持经济社会稳定具有重要意义。本文在借鉴国内外学者对蔬菜价格波动研究的基础上,以均衡价格理论、交易成本理论等相关理论为指导,采用文献研究法、实地访谈法、比较分析法、数学模型研究法等多种方法相结合展开分析。首先,选取了2010-2014年大白菜、油菜、黄瓜、西红柿、豇豆、土豆6种不同蔬菜品种的月度价格进行描述性统计分析,分析蔬菜的季节性波动特征,之后对2003-2014年云南、全国、山东三个地区蔬菜零售价格指数进行描述性统计分析,分析蔬菜的年际波动特征。其次,从供给、需求和其他因素三个方面出发,从理论层面分别对云南蔬菜价格波动的影响因素进行阐述分析,并在理论分析的基础上,选取了7个比较有代表性的因子进行因子分析,通过计算因子得分及其综合排序,找出导致蔬菜价格频繁波动最主要的因素。最后,根据理论与实证分析结果,提出有针对性的稳定云南蔬菜价格波动的对策建议。通过以上研究,结果显示:(1)价格波动特征:从季节特征角度考虑,发现大白菜、油菜的季节波动规律相类似,呈“n”型;黄瓜、西红柿、豇豆的波动特征相类似,呈“U”型,土豆价格波动相对比较平稳,除年初波动较激烈外,其余月份变化较小;从年际特征角度考虑,总体看来,2003-2014年云南省蔬菜价格呈逐年上涨趋势,且云南与山东的年度价格波动特征大体上是一样的,与全国相比存在一定的差异;(2)理论分析结果表明:供给因素中成本、气候、产量等因素,需求因素中人口、收入水平、出口量等,其他因素中政策、流通状况、信息差异、地区差异及蔬菜自身特征等因素均在一定程度上影响了云南省蔬菜价格波动,供求状况对蔬菜的价格波动具有较大影响,政策、流通状况及信息等的影响也不容小觑,但影响蔬菜价格波动的重要因素是供给因素;(3)因子分析结果表明:蔬菜种植面积、蔬菜总产量、地区生产总值是蔬菜供给能力的体现;城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、地区总人口最终体现的蔬菜的需求状况;农业生产资料价格指数是蔬菜生产成本的体现,鲜菜居民消费价格指数最终体现了居民购买蔬菜的成本。通过计算因子得分及其综合排序发现,导致云南省蔬菜价格频繁波动的主要因素按其影响程度大小排序依次为:蔬菜种植面积、地区生产总值、蔬菜总产量、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、地区总人口、居民菜消费价格指数、农业生产资料价格指数。种植面积、地区生产总值、蔬菜总产量对蔬菜价格的影响尤为突出。(4)稳定云南省蔬菜价格的措施包括:保障蔬菜有效供给;引导消费者合理需求;强化蔬菜政策支持;完善蔬菜市场监管体系。
[Abstract]:Vegetables are closely related to the life of the residents. It is a necessary necessities for the majority of consumers. It is not only an important source of increasing farmers' income, but also a great measure of the nutritional level and dietary structure of the residents. As a major sunrise industry in Yunnan, the vegetable industry has obtained certain results during the "12th Five-Year", in order to further promote the development of the vegetable industry. In the period of "13th Five-Year", the provincial government promulgated the planning of modern industrial development of the characteristic agriculture of the Yunnan plateau (2016-2020 years), further promoting the development of special industries such as vegetables and promoting the development of agricultural and rural economy. However, in recent years, influenced by different factors, the phenomenon of the soaring and tumbling of vegetable prices has occurred repeatedly and severely. It seriously affects the production and life of vegetable producers and consumers, not only increases the risk of vegetable farmers' planting, is not conducive to increasing farmers' income and getting rich, but also brings great economic pressure to the consumers. Therefore, the study and analysis of the characteristics, trends and influencing factors of the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan province will guide the sustainable and healthy development of the vegetable industry and promote the farmers. It is of great significance to increase the income, improve the consumption level of the residents and maintain the stability of the economy and society. On the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the fluctuation of the price of vegetables, this paper uses the theory of equilibrium price and the theory of transaction cost, and uses the literature research method, the field interview method, the comparative analysis method, the mathematical model research method and so on. Firstly, the monthly price of 6 different vegetable varieties of Chinese cabbage, rape, cucumber, tomato, cowpea and potato were selected and analyzed, and the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of vegetables were analyzed. Then the vegetable retail price index of 2003-2014 years in Yunnan, the whole country and Shandong, Shandong, 2003-2014 years, was described in descriptive statistics. Analysis and analysis of the characteristics of the interannual fluctuation of vegetables. Secondly, from three aspects of supply, demand and other factors, the influence factors of the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan are expounded and analyzed from the theoretical level. On the basis of theoretical analysis, 7 representative factors are selected to carry out factor analysis through the calculation factor score. And to find out the main factors that lead to frequent fluctuation of vegetable prices. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of Yunnan vegetables. Through the above study, the results show that: (1) the characteristics of price fluctuation: from the point of view of seasonal characteristics, the Ji Jiebo of Chinese cabbage and rape is found. The fluctuation of cucumber, tomato and cowpea is similar to that of "n", and the fluctuation characteristics of cucumber, tomato and cowpea are similar to "U". The price fluctuation of potatoes is relatively stable, except for the more intense fluctuation at the beginning of the year, the change of the rest months is smaller. In general, the price of vegetables in Yunnan province is rising year by year in 2003-2014 years, and Yunnan and Shandong are on the whole. The characteristics of the annual price fluctuation are generally the same, and there are certain differences compared with the whole country. (2) the theoretical analysis results show that the factors of cost, climate, production and other factors in the supply factors, the population, the income level, the export volume of the demand factors, the other factors in the policy, circulation, information, regional differences and the characteristics of vegetables themselves. To a certain extent, it affects the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan province. The supply and demand condition has great influence on the price fluctuation of vegetables. The influence of policy, circulation status and information can not be underestimated. But the important factor that affects the fluctuation of vegetable price is the supply factor. (3) factor analysis results show that vegetable planting area, total vegetable production, regional birth The gross product is the embodiment of the supply capacity of vegetables; the per capita disposable income of urban households, the ultimate embodiment of the vegetable demand in the total population of the region; the price index of the agricultural production data is the embodiment of the cost of vegetable production, and the consumer price index of fresh vegetable residents finally embodies the cost of the purchase and purchase of vegetables by the residents. It is found that the main factors that lead to frequent fluctuation of vegetable prices in Yunnan are as follows: vegetable planting area, GDP, total output of vegetables, per capita disposable income of urban households, total population of the region, consumer price index of residents, price index of agricultural production, area and area. Gross production value, the total output of vegetables has a particular impact on the price of vegetables. (4) measures to stabilize the price of vegetables in Yunnan include: ensuring the effective supply of vegetables, guiding the reasonable demand of consumers, strengthening the vegetable policy support, and perfecting the supervision system of vegetable market.
【学位授予单位】：云南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7

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