农户水稻收获损失及影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 21:59

本文选题：农户 + 水稻收获损失　；参考：《江南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在人口增长、居民食物消费结构升级所导致的粮食刚性需求增长与我国人均资源趋紧的矛盾下,中国粮食供需未来仍将处于依赖进口的紧平衡状态。然而,中国在保障粮食安全问题上一直较注重“产前”和“产中”环节的要素投入与管理,对粮食“产后”节粮减损的关注度严重不足。据统计,中国粮食产后损失情况非常突出,各环节每年损失总量上千亿斤,约合2亿亩耕地粮食产量。以水稻为例,水稻作为我国主要粮食作物之一,在收获环节不仅存在着较大的数量损失和品质损失,还会对后续存储、运输和加工等环节的损失产生重要影响。本研究从农户角度出发,结合中国农村现状,研究农户水稻收获损失及影响因素。首先,在对相关文献研究评述的基础上,构建了农户水稻收获损失影响因素的研究框架;其次,归纳影响农户水稻收获损失的相关变量,设计了调查问卷,对全国水稻主产区10省份957个农户的水稻收获损失现状展开了实地调研。对收集整理的数据,运用描述统计的方法,比较分析了不同样本省份农户水稻收获损失程度及其生产行为特征。在此基础上,运用有序多分类Logistic模型研究识别了水稻收获损失的9大影响因素;并进一步利用系统工程中的集成DEMATEL-ISM方法,对关键因素进行结构化分层,建立农户水稻收获损失影响因素的递阶结构,分析了关键因素在系统中的作用机理。研究结果表明:(1)全国地区农户水稻收获损失率均值在3.25%左右。然而,不同地区水稻收获损失率存在一定的差异性,整体呈现出两大特点:一是由北向南看,东北部地区水稻收获损失率低于南部地区;二是由东向西看,东部地区水稻收获损失率低于中部,中部地区损失率低于西部。(2)通过识别水稻收获损失显著影响因素后发现,农户家庭经营收入占比、种植规模、机械化程度、适时收获、作业精细度对水稻收获损失具有负向影响;户主外出务工、土地细碎化对水稻收获损失的影响为正;同时,水稻收获损失不会随着人手增加和天气晴好明显降低,但会随人手紧缺和天气恶劣显著增加。(3)水稻收获损失的影响因素既相互独立,又存在明显的层次作用关系。其中,适时收获与否和作业精细度对水稻收获损失具有直接影响;收获期天气、人手富裕度、机械化程度、家庭经营收入占比和土地细碎化的中介效应明显;户主务工与否、种植规模则是控制水稻收获损失的深层根源因素。
[Abstract]:Under the contradiction between the growth of population and the increase of food rigid demand caused by the upgrading of food consumption structure and the tightening of per capita resources in China, China's grain supply and demand will remain in a tight balance of dependence on imports in the future. However, China has always paid more attention to the input and management of "prenatal" and "production" elements on the issue of ensuring food security, and has not paid enough attention to the "postpartum" grain saving reduction. According to statistics, the situation of postpartum grain loss in China is very prominent, the total loss of every link is 100 billion jin per year, which is about 200 million mu of cultivated grain output. Taking rice as an example, as one of the main grain crops in China, there are not only large losses in quantity and quality, but also important effects on the loss of subsequent storage, transportation and processing. From the perspective of farmers and combining with the present situation in rural China, the paper studies the loss of rice harvest and its influencing factors. First of all, on the basis of the review of the relevant literature, the paper constructs the research framework of the influencing factors of farmers' rice harvest loss; secondly, induces the related variables that affect the farmers' rice harvest loss, and designs a questionnaire. The present situation of rice harvest loss of 957 farmers in 10 provinces of China was investigated. Based on the data collected and collated, the degree of rice harvest loss and the characteristics of rice production behavior of farmers in different provinces were compared and analyzed by the method of descriptive statistics. On the basis of this, 9 factors affecting rice harvest loss were identified by using ordered multiple classification Logistic model, and the key factors were further stratified by the integrated DEMATEL-ISM method in system engineering. The hierarchical structure of the influencing factors of farmers' rice harvest loss was established, and the mechanism of the key factors in the system was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the average loss rate of rice harvest was about 3.25%. However, there are some differences in the rate of rice harvest loss in different regions, showing two main characteristics: one is from north to south, the other is from east to west, the loss rate of rice harvest is lower in the northeast than in the south. The rice harvest loss rate in the eastern region is lower than that in the central region, and the loss rate in the central region is lower than that in the western region. (2) by identifying the significant factors affecting the rice harvest loss, it is found that the proportion of household income, the scale of planting, the degree of mechanization, the timely harvest, and so on. The fineness of the operation had a negative effect on the rice harvest loss; when the householder went out to work, the effect of the land fragmentation on the rice harvest loss was positive; at the same time, the rice harvest loss would not be significantly reduced with the increase of manpower and the weather. But it will increase with the shortage of manpower and bad weather. (3) the influencing factors of rice harvest loss are independent of each other and have obvious hierarchical relationship. Among them, the timely harvest or not and the fineness of the operation have a direct impact on the rice harvest loss; the weather of harvest period, the degree of manpower affluence, the degree of mechanization, the proportion of household income and the fineness of the land have obvious intermediary effects; whether the householder works or not, The scale of planting is the deep root factor to control the loss of rice harvest.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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