基于粮食安全的黑龙江省耕地压力时空变化特征研究

发布时间：2018-07-15 21:20

【摘要】：耕地是粮食生产的基础,它的变化对粮食产量和粮食安全产生重要影响,合理评价区域内的耕地压力水平,可为区域的耕地保护与粮食安全工作提供相应理论参考,对于促进社会和谐与可持续发展具有重要推动作用。黑龙江省是我国重要的粮食主产区,在保障国家粮食安全战略中具有重要地位,肩负着全国性粮食供给与粮食调配的艰巨任务,其耕地资源承担着保障国家粮食安全的重大压力。合理评价黑龙江省的耕地压力与粮食安全水平,对我国耕地保护与粮食生产工作具有一定指导与借鉴意义。本研究选取黑龙江省为研究区,分析了2000-2014年黑龙江省耕地资源数量、粮食产量的变化特征及变化原因;运用最小人均耕地面积与耕地压力指数模型,测算了15年间黑龙江省与13个地市的耕地压力指数,分析了全省耕地压力的时间变化特征,空间分布、耕地压力重心迁移与耕地压力空间变异性规律,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了2015-2020年黑龙江省的耕地压力指数。研究结果表明:(1)黑龙江省2000-2004年耕地资源面积小幅度平稳增加,2004-2005年耕地资源面积大幅度增加,2005-2011年耕地资源面积基本不变,2011-2014年,耕地面积大幅度增加后保持平稳增长,粮食总产、粮食单产与人均粮食产量三者变化趋势趋同,总体上均呈现上升趋势。(2)2000-2014年,黑龙江省耕地压力指数总体呈现下降趋势,耕地资源能够保障全省的粮食安全,其中2003年由于气候干旱少雨,粮食大幅减产,耕地压力增大。(3)2009年黑龙江省各地市的耕地压力情况最为乐观,除伊春市处于耕地压力预警区外,其余城市均处于无压力区。2003年黑龙江省的耕地压力情况最为严峻,除哈尔滨、佳木斯、绥化处于耕地无压力区之外,其他地市耕地压力均高于0.8。(4)2000-2014年,黑龙江省耕地压力重心从东南向西北转移,大兴安岭地区和伊春市的耕地压力一直较大,耕地压力重心在伊春市与绥化市和黑河市的交界处附近移动;除2009年外,黑龙江省的耕地压力指数具有较强的空间相关性,且耕地压力指数变异的随机性逐年增大,空间异质性呈现出先增大,后减小,又增加的变化趋势;耕地压力指数的变化在各个方向上都呈现出较高的相关性。(5)未来6年黑龙江省的耕地压力将持续降低,耕地资源与粮食生产能够保障全省的粮食安全。(6)加大监察执法力度、强化耕地资源保护意识、严格执行耕地保护制度、积极开展土地整理工作、大力推广农业技术、适度推行农村土地制度改革,可以有效保护耕地,保障国家粮食安全。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the basis of grain production, its changes have an important impact on grain production and grain security. The rational evaluation of the level of cultivated land pressure in the region can provide a theoretical reference for the protection of cultivated land and food security in the region, and play an important role in promoting social harmony and sustainable development. Heilongjiang province is the most important part of our country. The main grain producing area is of great importance in ensuring the national food security strategy, shouldering the arduous task of national grain supply and grain allocation, and its arable land resources bear the great pressure to ensure the national food security. The cultivated land pressure and food safety level in Heilongjiang province are rationally evaluated, and the cultivated land protection and grain production in China are protected. The work has some guidance and reference significance. In this study, Heilongjiang province was selected as the research area, and the quantity of cultivated land resources in Heilongjiang Province, the change characteristics of grain yield and the cause of change were analyzed for 2000-2014 years. The cultivated land pressure index of Heilongjiang province and 13 cities in 15 years was calculated by using the minimum per capita arable land area and the arable land pressure index model. The characteristics of the time change of the cultivated land pressure, the spatial distribution, the migration of the barycenter of cultivated land and the regularity of the spatial variability of the cultivated land pressure were analyzed. The cultivated land pressure index of Heilongjiang province was predicted by the grey GM (1,1) model. The results showed that: (1) the area of cultivated land resources in the 2000-2004 year of Heilongjiang increased steadily, 2004-2005 The area of cultivated land resources increased substantially in the year, and the area of cultivated land resources was basically unchanged in 2005-2011 years. After 2011-2014 years, the cultivated land area increased steadily, and the total grain yield, grain yield and grain output of three changed trend in the same trend. (2) 2000-2014 years, the cultivated land pressure index in Heilongjiang province was generally presented. The trend of the downward trend is that the cultivated land resources can guarantee the grain security of the whole province. In 2003, due to the drought and less rain in the climate, the pressure of the cultivated land increased greatly. (3) the situation of cultivated land pressure in all cities in Heilongjiang Province in 2009 is the most optimistic. In addition to Yichun in the early warning area of the arable land pressure, the rest of the cities are in the pressure free zone of.2003 Heilongjiang province. The pressure of cultivated land is the most severe. In addition to Harbin, Jiamusi and Suihua, the pressure of cultivated land in other cities is higher than that of 0.8. (4) 2000-2014 years. The barycenter of cultivated land pressure in Heilongjiang is transferred from southeast to northwest, and the cultivated land pressure in Greater Khingan Range and Yichun has been larger, and the barycenter of cultivated land pressure is in Yichun and Suihua. Along the border between the city and Heihe, the arable pressure index of Heilongjiang province has a strong spatial correlation except for 2009, and the randomness of the variation of the arable pressure index increases year by year, and the spatial heterogeneity appears to increase first, then decrease, and also increase, and the changes of the arable pressure index show more in all directions. High correlation. (5) the arable land pressure in Heilongjiang will continue to decrease in the next 6 years. Cultivated land resources and grain production will ensure the grain security of the whole province. (6) strengthen supervision of law enforcement, strengthen the awareness of protection of cultivated land resources, strictly implement the system of cultivated land protection, actively carry out soil land consolidation, vigorously promote agricultural technology, and moderate the implementation of rural areas. Land system reform can effectively protect arable land and ensure national food security.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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