中国木材产品需求研究

发布时间：2018-07-20 16:27

【摘要】：当前,生态文明建设正大力推行,林业的生态效益被高度重视。但林业的另一方面,即其为社会经济发展提供木材产品这一经济属性也不容忽视。木材产品可再生及循环利用的特点,奠定了其在国家经济建设中不可或缺的“绿色”原料型资源的地位和人民生活中重要生活资料的基础地位。在“十二五”即将结束,“十三五”就要到来之际,国家社会经济发展进入新常态,系统梳理过去一段时间的木材产品需求变化并对影响木材产品需求的因素进行分析,对于把握在内外供给约束条件下的木材产品需求规律,制定相关政策来实现森林资源可持续化经营和满足社会发展对木材产品的需求具有十分重要的意义。本文在前人研究基础上,应用弹性经济学和灰色关联分析,对国民经济发展的总量指标和一些微观经济指标与主要木材产品的需求之间的关系进行研究,找出木材产品需求在国民经济发展与人民生活改善中的变化规律,对“十三五”期间的木材产品需求量进行预测,并对影响木材产品需求的因素进行了研究。研究结果表明,“十三五”末我国木材产品需求量超过8亿立方米,国民经济的总量指标GDP增长对木材产品需求具有正向拉动作用,微观指标方面,城镇化率对木材产品需求的提振具有明显的推动作用。影响木材产品需求的如环境政策、经济转型等因素,会提振需求。基于木材产品本身的特性,作为古老传统的材料,又是环保需求下绿色、低碳、可循环的备受青睐的可再生的原料,其具有永恒广阔的需求市场。关键在于能否站在战略高度上,采取科学、创新式的管理对森林资源进行利用,在木材供给方面进行高效的提升以满足木材产品需求。“十三五”期间,随着国家经济社会发展进入新常态,加之国际形势多变,我国更多地需要从强大自身做起,利用好现有资源,加强创新,优化现有技术,改革林产工业格局,有针对性的满足人民生活水平提高和经济发展的木材产品需求。同时,在今后较长一段时间内,需要开拓木材进口新渠道,建立、建好国家木材储备,保证我国木材安全,在战略高度上,应对好社会、经济发展对木材产品的需求变化。
[Abstract]:At present, the construction of ecological civilization is being vigorously carried out, and the ecological benefits of forestry are highly valued. However, the economic attribute of forestry, that is, providing wood products for social and economic development, should not be ignored. The characteristics of renewable wood products and recycling have established the status of "green" raw material resources which are indispensable in national economic construction and the basic status of important means of living in people's lives. At the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan and the approaching of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the country's social and economic development has entered a new normal, systematically combing the changes in demand for wood products over the past period and analyzing the factors that affect the demand for wood products. It is of great significance to grasp the demand law of wood products under the condition of internal and external supply constraints, to formulate relevant policies to realize the sustainable management of forest resources and to meet the demand of wood products for social development. On the basis of previous studies, this paper applies elastic economics and grey relational analysis to study the relationship between the gross index and some microeconomic indexes of national economic development and the demand of main wood products. This paper finds out the changing law of timber product demand in the development of national economy and the improvement of people's life, forecasts the demand for wood products during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and studies the factors affecting the demand for wood products. The results show that at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the demand for timber products in China exceeded 800 million cubic meters, and the GDP growth of the total national economy has a positive pulling effect on the demand for wood products. The urbanization rate has the obvious promotion function to the timber product demand boost. Factors such as environmental policies and economic transformation that affect demand for wood products will boost demand. Based on the characteristics of wood products, as an ancient and traditional material, it is a green, low carbon, recyclable and renewable raw material under the environmental protection demand, which has an eternal and broad demand market. The key lies in whether we can take scientific and innovative management to utilize forest resources and improve the supply of wood efficiently to meet the demand of wood products. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with the national economic and social development entering a new normal and the changing international situation, our country needs to start from a strong self, make good use of existing resources, strengthen innovation, optimize the existing technology, and reform the pattern of forest products industry. Targeted to meet the people's living standards and economic development of wood products demand. At the same time, for a long time in the future, it is necessary to open up new channels for timber import, to establish and build the national timber reserve, to ensure the timber safety of our country, and to cope with the changes in the demand for wood products from the social and economic development in the strategic height.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.2

【相似文献】