竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-07-31 10:55

【摘要】：基于竹子造林碳汇项目方法学和改进的项目减排量经济价值评价模型,以湖北省通山县竹子造林项目为例,对竹子造林项目减排量及经济价值进行了动态定量评估,并对不同情景下项目减排量经济价值的变化进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在当前条件下,单位面积平均和20年累计减排量为12.6 t CO_2e/hm~2和251.2 t CO_2e/hm~2,项目面积为6 556 t CO_2e和131 125t CO_2e,但其主要集中在项目运行期前十年的地上和地下生物质碳库,而后十年的竹制品碳库相对较少;项目面积年均和累计碳汇价值量为9.62万元和192.41万元,中国自愿减排交易市场发育和健康运行对竹子造林项目碳汇价值影响显著;竹林经营技术条件,主要竹制品加工联合利用效率及联合使用寿命变化,对竹子造林项目年均和累计碳汇价值均有正向影响,但后两者的影响程度较小。未来应尽快构建囊括抵消机制的全国统一碳市场;重视毛竹碳汇造林与管护技术的应用、示范与推广;并鼓励竹子加工企业进行技术创新,生产和销售耐用竹制品。
[Abstract]:Based on the methodology of bamboo afforestation carbon sink project and the improved evaluation model of economic value of emission reduction of bamboo afforestation project, the dynamic quantitative evaluation of the emission reduction and economic value of bamboo afforestation project was carried out by taking the bamboo afforestation project in Tongshan County of Hubei Province as an example. The sensitivity analysis of the economic value of the project emission reduction under different scenarios is carried out. The results show that under current conditions, the average and 20 years cumulative emission reduction per unit area is 12.6t CO_2e/hm~2 and 251.2 t CO2e / hmm2, and the project area is 6,556t CO_2e and 131125t CO2e, but it is mainly concentrated in the aboveground and underground biomass carbon pools, which are located ten years before the operation of the project. In the following ten years, the carbon pool of bamboo products was relatively small, the average project area and the cumulative value of carbon sink were 96200 yuan and 1.9241 million yuan respectively. The development and healthy operation of China's voluntary emission reduction trading market had a significant impact on the carbon sink value of bamboo afforestation projects. The management technical conditions of bamboo forest, the combined utilization efficiency of main bamboo products and the change of combined service life have a positive effect on the annual average value and accumulative carbon sink value of bamboo afforestation projects, but the influence of the latter two is relatively small. In the future, we should construct a national unified carbon market including offsetting mechanism as soon as possible; attach importance to the application, demonstration and popularization of afforestation and management technology of bamboo carbon sink; and encourage bamboo processing enterprises to carry out technological innovation to produce and sell durable bamboo products.
【作者单位】：北京林业大学经济管理学院;沈阳农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：甘肃省甘南州迭部县项目(2016HXFWJGY014) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(11&ZD042)~~
【分类号】：F326.24;S718.5

【参考文献】