基于结构方程模型的城镇化质量与农用地利用水平评价及时空关联性研究

发布时间：2018-08-03 13:48

【摘要】：城镇化是一个国家或地区发展进步的必经过程,也是推动经济增长的合理途径与有效措施。近年来,随着各地城镇化进程不断推进,城郊农用地被大量占用,劳动力逐渐由农村转向城市,但城镇化在提高人们生活水平的同时,对农用地利用则产生了一定程度的负面影响,特别是在城乡结合部,农民的种植意愿与粮食产量呈现双低状态,使城镇化质量与农用地利用之间的矛盾尖锐化。因此,把握城镇化质量和农用地利用水平的演变规律,准确定位现阶段的城镇化质量发展水平与农用地利用水平,对合理规划区域发展具有指导性和实践性意义。本文以德阳、绵阳(以下简称德绵)作为研究区域,首先初步建立评价指标体系,利用LISREL对其进行验证性因子分析后对指标进行删减,从而通过构建结构方程模型确定因子载荷与路径系数,在此基础上进一步测算出研究区各区市县2000年-2014年城镇化质量与农用地利用水平的综合得分。然后结合Excel和Arc GIS对研究区的发展变化情况进行时空演变分析。最后借助SPSS和Geo Da计算二者的相关系数,并进行空间自相关分析,以此判断城镇化质量与农用地利用水平之间的关联关系,以期为合理推动城镇化发展和农用地保护提供新思路。本文研究结论总结如下:(1)城镇化质量水平在时间序列上整体呈上升趋势,其中涪城区发展水平最高,旌阳区次之,广汉市和游仙区大体相同,北川县和平武县则一直位于末位。空间上,城镇化质量高分值分布范围逐渐扩展,同时区际差异愈发显著。旌阳区和涪城区作为两个地区增长极,从根本上带动成德绵经济带及周围的城市发展,但处于经济带轴线两侧的地区发展水平仍较低。(2)农用地利用水平随时间变化总体比较平稳,按其发展程度可分为什邡市、涪城区、广汉市等高水平发展区,北川县和平武县2个低水平发展区,以及剩余10个中水平发展区。空间分布上,农用地利用水平逐渐向高分值区间发展、提升,区域差距逐步缩小。什邡市农用地利用总体水平在研究区范围内常年居高,而位于绵阳北部山区的平武县与北川县农用地利用水平相当低下。(3)城镇化质量与农用地利用水平之间存在显著的正向相关性。对于城镇化质量与农用地利用水平发展不平衡的地区,可通过适当提高人口城镇化率、扩大城镇规模、发展二三产业、增加社会保障投入、完善社会医疗设施等措施改善城镇化质量,或者加大单位机械动力投入、提高灌溉率、增加粮食产量进而提高农用地利用水平,促进城镇化与农用地协调健康发展。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is not only a necessary process of development and progress of a country or region, but also a reasonable way and effective measure to promote economic growth. In recent years, with the continuous progress of urbanization in various parts of the country, agricultural land in the suburbs has been heavily occupied, and the labor force has gradually shifted from the countryside to the city, but urbanization has improved people's living standards at the same time. It has a negative effect on the utilization of agricultural land, especially in the combination of urban and rural areas, the farmers' planting will and grain yield are both low, which makes the contradiction between urbanization quality and agricultural land use sharp. Therefore, it is of guiding and practical significance to grasp the evolution law of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level and to accurately locate the urbanization quality development level and agricultural land use level at the present stage. In this paper, Deyang, Mianyang (hereinafter referred to as De-mian) as the research area, the first preliminary establishment of the evaluation index system, using LISREL to verify the factor analysis to delete the indicators, Based on the structural equation model, the factors load and path coefficient were determined, and the comprehensive scores of urbanization quality and agricultural land use level between 2000 and 2014 were calculated. Then the temporal and spatial evolution of the study area is analyzed by Excel and Arc GIS. Finally, the correlation coefficient of SPSS and Geo Da is calculated, and spatial autocorrelation analysis is carried out to judge the correlation between urbanization quality and agricultural land use level. In order to reasonably promote the development of urbanization and the protection of agricultural land to provide new ideas. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the quality level of urbanization is on the rise in time series, the development level of Fucheng District is the highest, Jingyang District is the second, Guanghan City and Youxian District are roughly the same, Beichuan County and Pingwu County have always been in the last place. In space, the distribution range of high score of urbanization quality gradually expanded, and the regional differences became more and more significant. As two regional growth poles, Jingyang District and Fucheng District have fundamentally promoted the development of the Chengdemian Economic Belt and its surrounding cities. However, the development level of the areas on both sides of the axis of the economic belt is still relatively low. (2) the level of agricultural land use varies steadily with time, and can be divided into high level development areas such as Shifang City, Fulcheng District and Guanghan City according to their development degree. Beichuan County and Pingwu County 2 low level development areas, and the remaining 10 level development areas. In spatial distribution, the agricultural land use level gradually develops to the high score interval, the promotion, the regional disparity narrows gradually. The overall level of agricultural land use in Shifang City is high all year round in the study area. The level of agricultural land use in Pingwu County and Beichuan County in the northern mountain area of Mianyang is quite low. (3) there is a significant positive correlation between the quality of urbanization and the level of agricultural land use. For areas where the quality of urbanization is not balanced with the level of agricultural land use, we can increase the rate of population urbanization, expand the scale of cities and towns, develop the secondary and tertiary industries, and increase social security investment. To improve the quality of urbanization, to increase the input of unit mechanical power, to increase the rate of irrigation, to increase the grain yield and to raise the level of utilization of agricultural land, and to promote the harmonious and healthy development of urbanization and agricultural land.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21;F321.1

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