农业发展在政策减贫过程中的中介效应研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 14:20

【摘要】：通过培育农业等支柱性产业从而形成持续内生发展能力已经成为减贫的重要途径。农业发展在公共政策与减贫间架起了一座桥梁,农业发展呈现出明显的中介效应,公共政策通过农业发展这一中介变量有效推动了减贫进程。按照公共政策促进农业发展,农业发展推动贫困减缓这一逻辑脉络,构建了公共政策、农业发展与减贫效应三大系统及其测度指标体系,通过建立状态空间模型,分阶段探究了2000-2015年公共政策减贫过程中农业发展在各时期的减贫作用强度及其动态演变趋势,并对农业发展在政策扶贫过程中的中介效应进行了验证。结果表明,农业发展对政策扶贫的中介效应非常显著,公共政策的减贫效应中约有45.25%的贡献来自于农业发展所产生的中介效应;单纯的公共政策对于贫困减缓和农业发展的影响呈现下降趋势,而农业发展对于农村贫困减缓的作用则逐年增强。研究表明,我国多元化的减贫体系已经基本形成,内生式减贫机制逐渐健全并已经发挥作用,公共政策对农业发展和减贫的促进作用呈边际递减态势。因此,首先要加强对农业尤其是特色农业的扶持,以更好地发挥其在减贫过程中的中介效应,其次促进当前我国扶贫攻坚战略应尽快转向换挡,千方百计推动已经形成的内生减贫系统有效运转。
[Abstract]:It has become an important way to reduce poverty by cultivating pillar industries such as agriculture to form sustainable endogenous development ability. Agricultural development has built a bridge between public policy and poverty reduction. Agricultural development shows obvious intermediary effect. Public policy effectively promotes the process of poverty reduction through the intermediary variable of agricultural development. According to the logical context of public policy to promote agricultural development and agricultural development to promote poverty alleviation, three systems of public policy, agricultural development and poverty reduction effect and their measurement index system are constructed, and the state space model is established. This paper probes into the intensity of poverty reduction and its dynamic evolution trend of agricultural development in the process of poverty reduction of public policy from 2000 to 2015, and verifies the intermediary effect of agricultural development in the process of poverty reduction by policy. The results show that the intermediary effect of agricultural development on poverty reduction of policy is very significant, and about 45.25% of the poverty reduction effect of public policy comes from the intermediary effect of agricultural development. The impact of simple public policies on poverty alleviation and agricultural development shows a downward trend, while the role of agricultural development in rural poverty alleviation is increasing year by year. The research shows that the pluralistic poverty reduction system has been basically formed, the endogenous poverty reduction mechanism has been improved gradually and has played a role, and the role of public policies in promoting agricultural development and poverty reduction is diminishing marginally. Therefore, first of all, it is necessary to strengthen the support for agriculture, especially characteristic agriculture, in order to better exert its intermediary effect in the process of poverty reduction, and secondly, to promote the current strategy of poverty alleviation in China to shift gears as soon as possible. Do everything possible to promote the formation of the effective functioning of the endogenous poverty reduction system.
【作者单位】：吉首大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71363015,71503101) 湖南省“湖湘青年英才计划”支持项目(湘财行指[2016]82号) 湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(16B218)~~
【分类号】：F323.8

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