武陵山特困区贫困与自然灾害关系耦合研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 09:47

【摘要】：近年来极端气候不断增加,自然灾害频发,灾害类型呈现出多样化趋势,灾害的危害逐渐凸显,尤其是在生态环境恶劣、自然环境复杂、地貌类型多样、多为偏远深山的典型连片特困区,呈现灾频灾重、灾贫叠加效应显著和灾害影响突出等特点。在这种背景下,基于灾害的视角,如何科学评估自然灾害的灾情状况及其与贫困的关系,不仅对减轻因灾致贫、返贫效应具有非常重要的意义,也有助于科学有效地推进反贫困战略的稳步实施以及社会经济的可持续发展。论文选取了典型连片特困区武陵山片区为研究区,以自然灾害系统理论与贫困理论为基础,分别系统构建了研究区自然灾害综合灾情测算指标体系和综合发展指标体系,利用博弈论模型对3种主客观赋权法(层次分析法、熵权法和变异系数法)获取的权重值进行最优化组合,并对研究区单灾种与多灾种的综合灾情大小进行测算,根据多维贫困与可持续发展内涵的相互关系,从社会、经济和自然3个维度,构建了9个层面,共32项具体指标的综合发展指标体系,对研究区多维贫困程度进行测算,在此基础上运用耦合协调性评价方法,探究了自然灾害与多维贫困之间的耦合关系及两者之间具体的组合关系。通过对2011年各单灾种(洪涝、干旱、风雹、低温冷冻和雪灾与山体滑坡和泥石流)的综合灾情指数INDI与2012年多维贫困指数的耦合分析,发现2011年研究区单灾种干旱和洪涝灾害的外延性较大,对贫困产生了较大影响。从自然灾害多灾种角度,根据多灾种灾情大小和多维贫困程度类别组合进行相互关系研究,发现2011年多灾种综合灾情大小与2012年多维贫困程度属于中度以上耦合协调的县市区约占研究区总数的64.79%,整体上两者的耦合协调度较高,两者的耦合度C和耦合协调度D在空间上呈现出“大分散,小聚集”右倾斜“山”形分布格局。根据灾害与贫困的耦合关系,将两者的组合类型主要概括为四种:(1)集中分布在湖南和贵州片区的大灾(较大灾或中灾)—高贫(较高贫或中贫)型,灾害与贫困在空间分布上具有较高的一致性。(2)大灾(较大灾或中灾)—较低贫(低贫型),该类型县市区主要集中分布在湖北和湖南片区,贵州和重庆片区也稍有分布。(3)较小灾(小灾)—高贫(较高贫或中贫)型,主要分布在湖南片区,湖北片区略有涉及。(4)较小灾(小灾)—较低贫(低贫型):在湖南、贵州、湖北和重庆均有分布。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the extreme climate is increasing, natural disasters occur frequently, the types of disasters show a diversified trend, and the hazards of disasters are gradually highlighted, especially in the harsh ecological environment, the complex natural environment, the variety of geomorphological types. Most of them are typical remote and deep mountain areas, which are characterized by heavy disaster frequency, significant superposition effect of disaster poverty and prominent disaster impact. In this context, based on the disaster perspective, how to scientifically assess the disaster situation and its relationship with poverty is of great significance not only to alleviate the poverty caused by the disaster, but also to return to poverty. It also helps to promote the steady implementation of anti-poverty strategy and the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the theory of natural disaster system and the theory of poverty, this paper selects the Wulingshan region as the research area, and sets up the comprehensive disaster evaluation index system and the comprehensive development index system respectively. By using game theory model, the weight values obtained by three subjective and objective weighting methods (AHP, entropy weight and coefficient of variation) are optimized, and the comprehensive disaster situation of single and multiple disasters in the study area is calculated. According to the relationship between multidimensional poverty and sustainable development, this paper constructs a comprehensive development index system of nine dimensions, including 32 specific indicators, from the three dimensions of society, economy and nature, and measures the degree of multidimensional poverty in the study area. On the basis of this, the coupling and coordination evaluation method is used to explore the coupling relationship between natural disasters and multidimensional poverty and the concrete combination relationship between the two. Through the coupling analysis of the comprehensive disaster index (INDI) and the multi-dimensional poverty index (MDI) in 2011 (flood, drought, wind and hail, cryopreservation and snow disaster and landslide and debris flow), It is found that the extrapolation of drought and flood disasters in the study area in 2011 has a great impact on poverty. From the point of view of multiple natural disasters and based on the combination of the magnitude of disasters and the multi-dimensional poverty levels, It is found that the degree of comprehensive disaster in 2011 and the degree of multi-dimensional poverty in 2012 belong to more than moderate coupling and coordination, accounting for 64.79% of the total number of research areas, and the overall degree of coupling and coordination between the two is relatively high. The coupling degree C and the coupling coordination degree D show a "large dispersion" and a "right inclined" mountain distribution pattern. According to the coupling relationship between disaster and poverty, the combined types of disaster and poverty are summarized as follows: (1) the major disasters (large or medium disasters) and high poverty (high or middle poverty) concentrated in Hunan and Guizhou provinces. The spatial distribution of disasters and poverty is highly consistent. (2) Major disasters (large or moderate disasters)-lower poverty (low poverty type). The urban areas of this type of counties are mainly distributed in Hubei and Hunan regions. Guizhou and Chongqing were also slightly distributed. (3) small disaster (small disaster) -high poverty (high or middle poverty) type, mainly distributed in Hunan region, (4) small disaster (small disaster)-lower poverty (low poverty type): distributed in Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei and Chongqing.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F327;X43

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