基于系统动力学的土地整理项目绩效评价

发布时间：2018-11-03 10:35

【摘要】：土地资源是一种有限的资源，随着我国社会经济的高速发展，土地资源的数量和质量均呈下降趋势，与此同时土地资源的有限性也使其越来越不能满足社会经济增长对土地的需求。因此，土地整理项目工作被国家作为一种战略层面的部署受到越来越多的运用。在具体的土地整理项目实施及评价过程中，既有的研究成果已经能够对土地整理项目的绩效和结果进行评价，但在评价的内容上还不够全面，在评价的方法上还不够科学。因此，如何对土地整理项目进行更为系统和科学的评价具有一定意义。本文以土地整理项目的绩效评价为核心对土地整理项目全过程进行研究，首先，根据土地整理理论和可持续发展理论原则，从过程和结果全系统、政府与群众双视角构建了土地整理项目绩效评价的因果关系图模型，并以此作为整个模型构建的基本。其次，结合所要研究的项目区特点，有针对性的选择了过程、经济、社会和生态四方面内容作为项目子系统，通过区分状态变量、速率变量、辅助变量和常量，依据系统动力学模型建模原则和特点，构建了各自的系统流程图模型，并标明了存在的反馈循环回路。然后，利用历史数据，拟合出成长曲线、逻辑斯蒂曲线等SPSS函数，并在VENSIM软件中用DYNAMO语言转化成系统动力学方程，并进行运行的校对和检验。最后，利用本文建立的土地整理项目系统动力学模型，结合所要研究的工程实例，进行项目绩效的评价与预测，为分析决策和项目建议提供支持。本文工程实例绩效评价的结果是满意的，基本符合并达到了工程建设的要求和目的，并预测在未来几年中会持续产生良好绩效影响。同时文中绩效研究是基于系统动力学模型分析的，与以往模型相比，一是系统动力学模型分析具有动态特征，能进行实时反馈调节，更加贴近现实系统；二是应用系统动力学模型进行评价不仅能展示过去，评价现在，，更能预测项目未来情况。
[Abstract]:Land resources are a kind of limited resources. With the rapid development of our country's social economy, the quantity and quality of land resources are decreasing. At the same time, the limited land resources also make it more and more unable to meet the social and economic growth demand for land. Therefore, land consolidation project is used more and more as a kind of strategic deployment. In the process of implementation and evaluation of land consolidation projects, the existing research results have been able to evaluate the performance and results of land consolidation projects, but the contents of the evaluation are not comprehensive enough, and the evaluation methods are not scientific enough. Therefore, how to carry on more systematic and scientific evaluation of land consolidation project has certain significance. This paper studies the whole process of land consolidation project based on the performance evaluation of land consolidation project. Firstly, according to the principles of land consolidation theory and sustainable development theory, the whole system of process and result is introduced. The causality graph model of land consolidation project performance evaluation is constructed from the perspective of government and the masses, and it is the basic of the whole model construction. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the project area to be studied, the process, economic, social and ecological aspects are selected as the project subsystem, by distinguishing the state variable, the rate variable, the auxiliary variable and the constant. According to the modeling principles and characteristics of system dynamics model, the flow chart models of each system are constructed, and the existing feedback loop is indicated. Then, using historical data, SPSS functions such as growth curve and logistic curve are fitted out, and the system dynamic equations are transformed into system dynamic equations by DYNAMO language in VENSIM software, and the running proofreading and verification are carried out. Finally, the system dynamics model of land consolidation project is established in this paper, and the project performance evaluation and prediction are carried out in combination with the project example to provide support for the analysis and decision making and project proposal. The results of performance evaluation of engineering examples are satisfactory and meet the requirements and objectives of engineering construction. It is predicted that good performance impact will continue in the next few years. At the same time, the performance analysis is based on the system dynamics model analysis. Compared with the previous models, the system dynamics model analysis has dynamic characteristics, can be real-time feedback adjustment, more close to the real system; Second, the application of system dynamics model in evaluation can not only show the past, the evaluation of the present, but also predict the future of the project.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;N941.3

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