农业机械化、非农就业与农民的承包地退出意愿

发布时间：2018-11-19 22:19

【摘要】：工业化和城镇化必然要求部分农民与农村土地"人地分离",农业生产方式的转变加快了上述进程。理论分析表明,农业机械的广泛使用,不仅可能对农民的承包地退出意愿直接产生正负两种作用,还可能会通过非农就业这一中介变量间接影响农民的退地意愿。为了考察当前我国农民的农村土地退出意愿以及农业机械化、非农就业对其造成的影响,本文首先采用两阶段随机抽样法,对河北、山东、河南三省九县(市、区)620个农户进行了问卷调查,发现相当一部分农民愿意有偿退出农村承包地,且对不同的退出方式有不同的选择偏好。利用上述农户调查数据,本文将农村承包地退出划分为"换工资收入"、"直接出售"和"被政府征用"三种具体方式,通过构建mvprobit模型,计量分析了农业机械化、非农就业与农民的承包地退出意愿之间的联系。研究发现,农业机械使用比例的提高会强化农民以承包地换养老保险等工资性收入的意愿,而农民对农机作业服务满意程度的提升,则会抑制其直接出售承包地或用之换养老保险等工资性收入的意愿。整体来看,农业机械化对农民"弃地进城"有显著的积极作用。非农就业是农业机械化影响农民退地意愿的中介变量,但它对退地意愿的作用不显著。成员非农就业较稳定的农户家庭,更愿意以一次性卖断(直接出售或被政府征用)的方式处置承包地。为了避免陷入"日韩陷阱",推动农业转型发展和农民市民化,需要实施农民的承包地退出制度,尽快为有意愿、有能力的进城农户彻底放弃农村土地提供制度出口。
[Abstract]:Industrialization and urbanization inevitably require the separation of man and land from rural land, and the transformation of agricultural production mode speeds up the above process. The theoretical analysis shows that the widespread use of agricultural machinery may not only have positive and negative effects on farmers' willingness to withdraw from contracted land, but also indirectly affect peasants' willingness to withdraw land through the intermediary variable of non-agricultural employment. In order to investigate the farmers' willingness to withdraw from rural land and the impact of agricultural mechanization and non-agricultural employment on it, this paper first uses two-stage random sampling method to study nine counties (cities) in Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces. A questionnaire survey was conducted by 620 farmers. It was found that a considerable number of farmers were willing to withdraw from rural contracted land for compensation and had different preferences for different exit ways. Based on the above survey data, this paper divides the rural land withdrawal into three specific ways: "wage exchange income", "direct sale" and "expropriation by the government". Through the construction of mvprobit model, the paper measures and analyzes agricultural mechanization. The relationship between non-agricultural employment and farmers' willingness to withdraw from contracted land. The study found that the increase in the proportion of agricultural machinery use will strengthen farmers' willingness to exchange contracted land for old-age insurance and other wage income, while farmers' satisfaction with agricultural machinery services will be increased. Will inhibit their direct sale of contracted land or exchange for pension insurance and other wage income will be willing. Overall, agricultural mechanization has a significant positive effect on farmers'forsaking land and entering cities. Non-agricultural employment is the intermediary variable of agricultural mechanization which affects farmers' willingness to return land, but it has no significant effect on the willingness to return land. Households with stable non-agricultural employment are more willing to dispose of contracted land in the form of one-off sale (direct sale or expropriation by the government). In order to avoid falling into the trap of "Japan and South Korea" and to promote the development of agricultural transformation and the urbanization of farmers, it is necessary to implement the system of farmers' withdrawal from contracted land, and to provide institutional exports to farmers who have the will and ability to give up rural land completely as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“农业现代化体制机制创新与工业化、信息化、城镇化同步发展研究”(批准号:13AZD003) 教育部人文社科青年基金项目“土地承包经营权流转与规模经营问题研究”(批准号:10YJC790211)
【分类号】：F323.3;F323.6;F321.1

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