基于CA-Markov模型的广汉市土地利用空间格局预测及优化研究

发布时间：2018-11-25 07:00

【摘要】：土地是人类生活、社会生产的重要物质基础,但随着社会经济的发展,土地资源供应与需求之间的矛盾日益突出,土地资源逐渐成为制约城市经济发展,人民生活水平提高的重要因素。因此,必须进一步协调人地关系,优化土地利用结构,保障社会经济的可持续发展。本文将四川省广汉市作为研究区,以广汉市2003年、2009年、2014年遥感影像为数据源,采用土地利用程度指数、土地利用转移矩阵等方法分析土地利用时空演变规律,讨论了土地利用格局变化的影响因素。构建CA-Markov模型模拟广汉市2014年土地利用状况,并对其模拟结果进行数量和空间上的检验。再以此模型,模拟广汉市2020年基于耕地保护优先、经济优先及生态优先三种情景下的土地利用格局,并对模拟后的格局进行优化,最后对广汉市未来的土地利用提出建议。根据本次研究分析,得出以下结论:(1)在2003年-2014年,广汉市的土地利用结构发生了较大的变化。耕地大幅度减少,建设用地大幅度增加,而其他地类变化较为平缓。土地利用程度处于中上水平,土地利用强度较大,且逐年升高。2009-2014年广汉市土地利用变化的强度要远大于2003-2009年。(2)广汉市土地利用变化受到坡度、行政中心、交通、人口、政策等多种因素共同影响。广汉市整体地势平缓,耕地和建设用地适宜分布在坡度0-15°之间,15°以上适宜林地。通过建立缓冲区得出距离行政中心及交通干线越近,耕地和林地减少的速度越快,建设用地增加的速度越快的规律。(3)建立CA-Markov模型预测2014年土地利用状况,并进行精度检验,证明模型精度较高。基于IDRISI软件平台,建立因子权重图,制作土地利用适宜性图集,得到2014年广汉市土地利用预测图,经检验,各地类相对误差都在15%以内,Kappa系数为0.78。(4)基于三种情景下对2020年土地利用格局进行预测,结果表明三种情景预测的土地利用格局都难以达到最优的状态。在三种情景下,广汉市的建设用地在增加,而耕地、水域和其他土地都在减少,表明广汉市经济仍处于较快发展期,城市仍然处于扩张期。但在不同的情境下,土地利用格局又有所差异。(5)通过对预测后的三种土地利用格局进行优化,得到最优的土地利用格局。以耕地保护优先型的预测结果为基础,对经济优先型中的中心城区的建设用地、生态保护优先型中的林地进行优化,得到优化后的土地利用格局。
[Abstract]:Land is an important material basis for human life and social production. However, with the development of social economy, the contradiction between the supply and demand of land resources is becoming increasingly prominent, and land resources gradually become a constraint to the development of urban economy. An important factor in the improvement of the people's living standards. Therefore, we must further coordinate the land relationship, optimize the land use structure, and ensure the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the remote sensing images of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014, this paper uses the land use index and the land use transfer matrix to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of land use, taking Guanghan city as the research area, and taking the remote sensing image of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014 as the data source. The influencing factors of land use pattern change were discussed. The CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the land use in Guanghan city in 2014, and the results of the simulation were tested in quantity and space. Based on this model, this paper simulates the land use pattern of Guanghan city in 2020 based on the three scenarios of cultivated land protection priority, economic priority and ecological priority, and optimizes the simulated pattern, and finally puts forward some suggestions for the future land use of Guanghan city. According to the analysis of this study, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the land use structure of Guanghan city has changed greatly. The cultivated land greatly reduced, the construction land increased substantially, but the other ground type change is more gentle. The degree of land use is in the middle and upper level, and the intensity of land use is increasing year by year. From 2009 to 2014, the intensity of land use change in Guanghan City is much greater than that in 2003-2009. (2) the slope of land use change in Guanghan City, the administrative center, Transportation, population, policy and other factors together. The whole topography of Guanghan City is smooth, the cultivated land and construction land are suitable for distribution between 0 掳and 15 掳, and above 15 掳are suitable for woodland. The closer the buffer zone is to the administrative center and the main traffic line, the faster the reduction of cultivated land and forest land is, and the faster the increase rate of construction land is. (3) the CA-Markov model is established to predict the land use status in 2014. The accuracy of the model is proved to be high. Based on the IDRISI software platform, the factor weight map is established, the land use suitability map is made, and the land use forecast map of Guanghan City in 2014 is obtained. After testing, the relative error of each category is within 15%. The Kappa coefficient is 0.78. (4) based on three scenarios, the land use pattern in 2020 is predicted. The results show that the land use pattern predicted by the three scenarios is difficult to reach the optimal state. Under the three scenarios, the construction land in Guanghan is increasing, while the cultivated land, water area and other land are decreasing, indicating that the economy of Guanghan is still in the period of rapid development and the city is still in the period of expansion. But in different situations, the land use pattern is different. (5) by optimizing the three land use patterns after prediction, the optimal land use pattern can be obtained. Based on the prediction results of the cultivated land conservation priority type, the construction land in the central urban area of the economic priority type and the forest land in the ecological protection priority type were optimized, and the optimized land use pattern was obtained.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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