大数据背景下电影作品的收益法评估应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 13:56

本文选题：电影版权评估 + 大数据　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着数字化进程的加快,现如今社会生活中大规模的数据被记录、分享和应用,全球已经进入“大数据的时代”。日益丰富的电影大数据逐渐成为电影产业发展的宝贵财富。但是对于电影版权的评估,我国还尚未建立标准的评估体系。本文基于我国电影产业的发展现状,尝试对电影大数据进行挖掘和分析,采用实证分析与传统收益法相结合的方法,对影响电影票房的因素和版权价值评估进行研究。首先,对选题的研究背景、内容、方法和创新点进行了介绍,然后梳理了国内外关于票房因素、票房预测模型、版权收益法评估的相关文献,介绍了电影版权评估以及大数据的相关概念。其次,分析票房影响因素并建立票房收入预测模型,选取了2015-2016年上映的151部电影作为样本,以档期、主创人员、营销状况、发行方的竞争状况、百度搜索指数和微博情感倾向、是否为翻拍或续集7个因素为自变量,利用SPSS进行多元回归分析。结果表明是否为翻拍或续集对票房影响不显著,而其余六个指标均对票房有正向影响。然后,以《乘风破浪》作为案例进行分析,利用收益分成率法和票房预测模型对其版权的价值进行评估,并对主要的参数进行了敏感性分析,最后,对论文的结论和研究过程中的不足进行了总结,并且对未来关于电影版权的研究提出了自己的建议。本文在确定电影票房影响因素时,不仅仅考虑了电影自身的一些客观因素,还将电影关键词的百度搜索指数、微博情感倾向考虑到模型中去,尝试将电影大数据运用到版权的价值评估中,期望能够提高电影版权的评估科学性,为我国电影的投融资和版权评估提供一些参考。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the digitization process, large-scale data are recorded, shared and applied in social life. The world has entered the era of "big data". The increasingly rich film big data has gradually become the precious wealth of the development of the film industry. However, for the evaluation of film copyright, China has not yet established a standard evaluation system. Based on the current situation of the film industry in China, this paper attempts to dig and analyze the film big data, and adopts the method of combining empirical analysis with the traditional income approach to study the factors affecting the box office and the valuation of copyright. First of all, the research background, content, method and innovation of the topic are introduced, and then the relevant literature about box office factors, box office prediction model, copyright income method evaluation are combed at home and abroad. This paper introduces the evaluation of movie copyright and the related concepts of big data. Secondly, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of box office and establishes a prediction model of box office income, and selects 151 films released in 2015-2016 as a sample, taking the term, the originator, the marketing situation, the competition of the issuer, Baidu search index and Weibo emotional tendency as the sample. The multiple regression analysis using SPSS was carried out for 7 factors as independent variables whether they were reproductions or sequels. The results show that whether a remake or a sequel has no significant effect on the box office, while the other six indexes have a positive effect on the box office. Then, taking the windbreak wave as a case study, the paper evaluates the value of copyright by using the method of share of proceeds and the prediction model of box office, and analyzes the sensitivity of the main parameters. The conclusions of the paper and the shortcomings in the research process are summarized, and some suggestions for the future research on film copyright are put forward. This paper not only considers some objective factors of the film itself, but also takes the Baidu search index of the movie keyword and the Weibo emotional tendency into account in the model when determining the influencing factors of the movie box office. This paper attempts to apply film big data to the evaluation of copyright, which is expected to improve the scientific nature of the evaluation of film copyright, and to provide some references for the investment and financing of Chinese films and the evaluation of copyright.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：J943

【参考文献】