我国文化产业安全预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 19:55

本文选题：文化产业安全 + 评价指标体系　；参考：《南昌大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国是一个文化资源丰富的国家,但文化产业发展的时间却较短,整个产业的发展水平还处于起步阶段,与其他文化产业发达的西方国家相比,产品的竞争力不强。因此,随着我国加入WTO以及全球化的深化,我国文化市场开放度不断扩大,我国文化产业受到了各种外来因素的冲击,文化产业安全面临严重的威胁。建立文化产业安全预警机制,维护文化产业安全的要求变得越来越迫切。本文首先分析归纳了文化产业安全预警的研究现状和理论基础以及产生文化产业安全的内外在原因。然后根据我国现实情况建立了文化产业安全评价体系和预警模型,并利用2002——2010年的中国文化产业相关数据,运用主成分分析法和BP网络模型对我国文化产业安全评价与预警进行了实证分析。最后,为保证预警机制的正常运行,建立了我国文化产业安全预警管理系统,并在人力资源、资金、组织、技术等方面提出了一系列的保障措施。总体研究表明：在2002年到2010年间,我国文化产业的发展水平总体处于上升阶段,产业的综合竞争力有所增强,虽然期间受到一些因素的影响,文化产业安全度有一些波动,但总体上还是呈现向上的发展趋势。同时,将2002年到2010年的文化产业数据带入到BP网络模型中进行检验和预测可以发现,利用BP进行的预警与现实情况基本保持一致。由此可见,利用主成分分析和BP网络模型相结合对中国文化产业安全进行评价与预警具有良好的效果。我国文化产业安全预警机制的正常进行需要构建一套由监控体系、预警机制、快速反馈机制、及抗干扰机制组成的完整、有效的文化产业预警管理系统,并提供人才资源、资金、组织、科技等保障措施。
[Abstract]:China is a country rich in cultural resources, but the development of cultural industry is relatively short, the level of development of the whole industry is still in the initial stage, compared with other developed western countries, the competitiveness of products is not strong. Therefore, with China's entry into WTO and the deepening of globalization, the opening degree of Chinese cultural market is expanding constantly, the cultural industry of our country has been impacted by various external factors, and the security of cultural industry is facing a serious threat. It is more and more urgent to establish the early warning mechanism of cultural industry security and to maintain the security of cultural industry. Firstly, this paper analyzes and sums up the present research situation and theoretical basis of cultural industry security warning, and the reasons for the internal and external causes of cultural industry security. Then, according to the reality of our country, the paper establishes the cultural industry safety evaluation system and early warning model, and makes use of the relevant data of Chinese cultural industry from 2002 to 2010. Based on the principal component analysis and BP network model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the safety evaluation and early warning of China's cultural industry. Finally, in order to ensure the normal operation of the early-warning mechanism, a security early-warning management system for cultural industries in China has been established and organized in human resources, funds and organizations. The overall research shows that the development level of Chinese cultural industry is on the rise from 2002 to 2010, and the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry has been strengthened. Although the influence of some factors during the period, there are some fluctuations in the safety degree of cultural industry, but the overall trend of development is still upward. At the same time, when the cultural industry data from 2002 to 2010 are brought into the BP network model for testing and forecasting, it can be found that the early warning made by BP is basically consistent with the actual situation. It can be seen that the combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and BP neural network model has a good effect on the evaluation and early warning of Chinese cultural industry safety. It is necessary to construct a complete and effective early warning management system of cultural industry, which is composed of monitoring system, early warning mechanism, quick feedback mechanism and anti-interference mechanism, and provides human resources. Funds, organizations, science and technology and other safeguards.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G124

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