上海新文化传媒集团股份有限公司企业价值评估案例分析

发布时间：2018-08-18 09:13

【摘要】：随着我国人均国民生产总值突破6000美元，我国文化产业迎来一个快速发展期，特别电视剧制作行业在过去3年里发展迅速。目前我国电视剧行业集中度较为分散，行业内的公司正处在优胜劣汰的关键时期，企业并购逐渐增多，行业整合将成为这一行业的必然趋势，如何对目标企业进行合理估值是企业并购的关键因素。另外，现代企业管理已从过去绩效管理逐步转向面向未来的价值管理，这赋予企业价值评估更广泛的用途。企业价值评估已从原来的指导投资者进行投资，扩展为一种对业绩评价的标准。本文根据企业价值评估理论，通过定性、定量和案例分析相结合方法，对一家在深圳创业板上市的电视剧制作公司——新文化进行价值评估。由于电视剧制作行业是一个资本驱动的行业，目前该行业的上市公司处于快速扩张期，营运资金投资较大，导致该类上市公司的经营活动的净现金流大都为负数，因此本文主要采用了经济增加值价值评估模型进行企业价值评估。本文从对电视剧制作行业的特点、行业发展状况分析入手，通过对新文化公司的优劣势、企业战略及历史财务数据分析，判断公司未来发展趋势，然后在假设条件下利用经济增加值估值模型测算的公司每股价值为37.34元，这与市盈率模型结合PEG理论的估值结果每股价值39元的差异较小，然而相对于目前的证券市场价格62.61元（截至2013年9月25日收盘价）差异较大。本文认为，依据对新文化财务预测分析数据进行的价值评估结果，，目前市场股价偏高。
[Abstract]:With the per capita gross national product of our country exceeding 6000 US dollars, the cultural industry of our country ushered in a period of rapid development, and the special TV production industry developed rapidly in the past three years. At present, the concentration of TV drama industry in our country is relatively scattered, the companies in the industry are in the crucial period of survival of the fittest, the merger and acquisition of enterprises is increasing gradually, and the integration of the industry will become an inevitable trend in this industry. How to evaluate the target enterprise reasonably is the key factor of M & A. In addition, modern enterprise management has gradually changed from past performance management to future-oriented value management, which gives enterprise value evaluation more extensive use. The evaluation of enterprise value has been extended from the original guidance to investors to a standard of performance evaluation. According to the theory of enterprise value evaluation, this paper evaluates the new culture of a TV drama production company listed on the gem of Shenzhen through the methods of qualitative, quantitative and case analysis. Because the TV drama production industry is a capital-driven industry, at present the listed companies in this industry are in a period of rapid expansion, and their working capital investment is large, resulting in the negative net cash flow of such listed companies' business activities. Therefore, this paper mainly adopts the economic value added value evaluation model to evaluate the enterprise value. This article starts with the analysis of the characteristics and the development of the TV drama production industry, through the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the New Culture Company, the enterprise strategy and the historical financial data, to judge the future development trend of the company. Then under the hypothetical condition, the company's value per share is 37.34 yuan by using the economic added value valuation model, which is less different from the valuation result of 39 yuan per share based on the price-earnings ratio model combined with the PEG theory. However, compared with the current stock market price of 62.61 yuan (as of September 25, 2013 closing price) there is a big difference. This paper holds that the market stock price is on the high side according to the value evaluation result of the new culture financial forecast analysis data.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;G124

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