基于蒙特卡洛法的水下对抗效能推演评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 16:42

本文选题：蒙特卡洛 + 水下对抗推演　；参考：《中国舰船研究院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着鱼雷向远航程、高航速、低噪声、智能化方向的发展，水面舰艇面临着严重的水下威胁，如何有效地利用现有武器防御鱼雷攻击，对水面舰艇水下自防御系统作战配置方案进行设计与优选，成为各国海军水下防务的重点。本文在“依据舰艇作战效能指导舰艇作战系统设计优化”理念的指导下，，基于蒙特卡洛方法对舰艇水下对抗鱼雷进行了开拓性的推演评估与研究工作，并在此基础上提出一种舰艇水下自防御系统装备配置方案的优选方法。本文主要的研究内容和研究成果包括以下几个方面：（1）蒙特卡洛在水下对抗效能推演中的可行性及应用分析。通过大量国内外综述文献研究，对蒙特卡洛方法在效能推演中的应用进行了可行性分析及验证；提出了基于蒙特卡洛的水下对抗推演应用指导过程，并分别进行了水下对抗效能推演的蒙特卡洛目标分析、建模分析和试验分析等流程，确定了蒙特卡洛方法在舰艇水下对抗效能推演评估中的应用步骤。（2）基于蒙特卡洛法的高分辨率鱼雷作战行为建模。通过对典型鱼雷作战过程分析，针对现有鱼雷二维作战模型的不足进行了创新性改进和提高，建立了三维空间下的鱼雷发射模型、运动弹道模型、自导检测模型、状态判断模型和鱼雷作战误差模型，为全面、详细地描述各类型鱼雷作战行为和状态变化提供了模型支撑。（3）基于蒙特卡洛法的舰艇水下鱼雷防御作战行为建模。通过对水面舰艇对抗鱼雷防御方法的综合分析，分别建立了舰艇机动规避作战行为模型、舰艇水声对抗作战行为模型、舰艇硬杀伤对抗行为模型和舰艇作战误差模型。（4）舰艇水下对抗作战实例推演评估及结果分析。在红蓝双方水下作战推演模型体系基础上，依据蒙特卡洛效能推演评估流程，设计并编制实现了一舰艇水下对抗效能推演评估软件，在此基础上对红蓝双方作战方案进行了想定及算例推演，分析了相关作战因素对舰艇水下对抗鱼雷作战效能的影响，推演结果表明：基于蒙特卡洛法建立的红蓝双方水下对抗效能推演数学模型能够有效的反映舰艇水下鱼雷防御对抗效能。最后，论文依据单方案效能推演评估结果，提出了舰艇水下自防御装备配置方案优选方法。本文的研究成果丰富了舰艇水下自防御作战效能推演评估的理论模型，具有一定的理论价值与现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of torpedo to long range, high speed, low noise and intelligence, surface warships are facing serious underwater threat. How to effectively use existing weapons to prevent torpedo attack, The design and optimal selection of operational configuration scheme for surface warship underwater self-defense system have become the focal point of underwater defense of various navies. Under the guidance of the concept of "guiding warship combat system design optimization according to warship operational effectiveness", this paper has carried out a pioneering evaluation and research work on warship underwater countermeasure torpedo based on Monte Carlo method. On the basis of this, an optimal method of equipment configuration for underwater defense system of warship is proposed. The main research contents and results of this paper include the following aspects: 1) the feasibility and application analysis of Monte Carlo in underwater countermeasure effectiveness. The feasibility analysis and verification of the application of Monte Carlo method in efficiency estimation are carried out through a large number of domestic and international literature reviews, and the guiding process of underwater countermeasure deduction based on Monte Carlo is proposed. The Monte Carlo target analysis, modeling analysis and experimental analysis of underwater countermeasure effectiveness are carried out, and the application steps of Monte Carlo method in evaluation of underwater combat effectiveness are determined. Second, high resolution torpedo combat behavior modeling based on Monte Carlo method. Based on the analysis of typical torpedo operation process, this paper improves and improves the existing torpedo two-dimensional combat model, and establishes the torpedo launch model, motion trajectory model and homing test model in three dimensional space. The state judgment model and the torpedo combat error model provide the model support for the comprehensive and detailed description of each type of torpedo operational behavior and state change. Based on Monte Carlo method, the operational behavior of underwater torpedo defense is modeled. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the methods of surface warship against torpedo defense, the models of maneuvering avoidance, underwater acoustic warfare, hard killing and warship combat error are established respectively. A case study of underwater combat against warships and analysis of the results are presented in this paper. Based on the model system of red and blue underwater combat, and according to the evaluation flow of Monte Carlo effectiveness, a software for underwater combat effectiveness evaluation of naval vessels is designed and implemented. On this basis, the scenarios and calculation examples of the operational schemes of the red and blue sides are presented, and the effects of the relevant operational factors on the operational effectiveness of the submarine torpedo are analyzed. The simulation results show that the mathematical model based on Monte Carlo method can effectively reflect the effectiveness of underwater torpedo defense. Finally, according to the evaluation results of single scheme effectiveness, the optimal selection method of underwater defense equipment configuration scheme is proposed in this paper. The research results of this paper enrich the theoretical model of operational effectiveness evaluation of underwater defense, and have certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：中国舰船研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U674.703

【参考文献】