复杂条件下耦合可再生能源消纳的复合系统优化与管理研究

发布时间：2018-08-23 20:47

【摘要】：随着经济持续高速发展,人口迅速增长,能源消费量与需求量与日俱增,能源供需矛盾日益突出;同时,化石能源的大量消耗也带来了严重的环境污染问题,制约了我国社会、经济与环境的可持续发展。当前,具有清洁、友好、低碳、节能等优点的可再生能源成为了世界关注的焦点。但是我国可再生能源发展仍存在着规划不合理、开发利用不足以及消费比重低等问题。同时,能源系统中存在着大量的复杂性因素,如能源需求的动态变化、能源结构调整和未来能源政策的不确定性等,给能源系统管理带来了极大的挑战。因此,开展耦合可再生能源消纳的能源系统优化与管理研究,对于区域转变能源发展模式,提高可再生能源发电比重,优化能源资源配置以及改善环境质量将具有重要的意义。本文在充分辨识区域能源系统特征及其不确定性、复杂性的基础上,旨在推进可再生能源发展和优化能源系统管理,通过耦合两阶段随机规划、随机鲁棒规划、模糊规划和区间规划等不确定性优化方法,构建多个耦合可再生能源消纳的不确定性区域能源综合调控模型,反映系统经济、环境目标和风险之间的权衡关系,并以山东省和唐山市为例,为区域能源环境系统规划与管理提供技术和决策支持。具体研究内容包括:(1)针对可再生能源输出功率的不确定性问题,综合区间规划、两阶段随机规划和模糊可信度规划方法,考虑可再生能源发电出力预测误差给系统带来的风险,构建基于区间两阶段随机模糊可信度规划模型,并应用于区域微网系统管理,该模型可以将模糊可信度约束进行清晰等价类转化;(2)针对可再生能源发电比重低的问题,基于两阶段随机规划、随机鲁棒规划和区间规划方法,建立区间两阶段随机鲁棒-山东省电力规划模型,通过设置不同可再生能源发展目标,产出一系列电力生产、外购电力、电力设施扩容等决策方案;(3)针对激励政策对新能源发展的影响问题,将电价补贴政策引入到电力系统模型中,构建基于区间两阶段随机鲁棒混合整数规划的唐山市电力系统优化模型,分析不同上网电价补贴情景下的电力系统优化方案,有助于决策者在考虑利益平衡的情形下制定科学合理的发展政策;(4)针对能源环境系统日益突出的问题,在全面分析唐山市能源系统特征的基础上,统筹兼顾可再生能源发展,建立基于区间模糊混合整数规划的唐山市能源系统优化与管理模型,获得能源资源配置、转换技术扩容、大气污染减排等方案。该模型能够帮助决策者权衡系统成本、能源供应安全和环境要求之间的互动关系,可用于指导含有可再生能源的区域能源系统优化管理。总体来看,本文提出的不确定性优化方法能够有效地表征复合能源系统中存在的复杂性和不确定性,从不同角度构建的耦合可再生能源消纳的能源系统规划模型,能够为复杂条件下能源系统管理提供科学决策方案和前瞻性建议,有助于促进可再生能源发展,推动能源结构优化升级以及实现能源系统的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and high-speed development of economy, the rapid growth of population, the increasing consumption and demand of energy, the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent; at the same time, the large consumption of fossil energy has also brought serious environmental pollution problems, restricting the sustainable development of our society, economy and environment. However, there are still some problems in the development of renewable energy in China, such as unreasonable planning, inadequate development and utilization, and low proportion of consumption. Therefore, the research on Optimization and management of energy system coupled with renewable energy consumption will be of great significance for regional transformation of energy development mode, increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation, optimizing energy resource allocation and improving environmental quality. Based on the characteristics, uncertainties and complexity of regional energy system, this paper aims to promote the development of renewable energy and optimize the management of energy system. By coupling two-stage stochastic programming, stochastic robust programming, fuzzy programming and interval programming, uncertain regional energy for multiple coupled renewable energy consumption is constructed. Source integrated regulation model reflects the trade-off among system economy, environmental objectives and risks. Taking Shandong Province and Tangshan City as examples, it provides technical and decision support for regional energy and environment system planning and management. Stochastic programming and fuzzy credibility programming method, considering the risk of the renewable energy generation output forecasting error to the system, a two-stage stochastic fuzzy credibility programming model based on interval is constructed and applied to the management of regional micro-grid system, which can transform the fuzzy credibility constraints into clear equivalence classes; (2) for renewable energy Based on two-stage stochastic programming, stochastic robust programming and interval programming method, a two-stage stochastic robust-Shandong power planning model is established. By setting different renewable energy development goals, a series of decision-making schemes, such as power production, power outsourcing and power facilities expansion, are produced. (3) Aiming at incentive policies. The influence of policy on the development of new energy sources is discussed. The electricity price subsidy policy is introduced into the power system model. The Tangshan power system optimization model based on interval two-stage stochastic robust mixed integer programming is constructed. The power system optimization schemes under different electricity price subsidy scenarios are analyzed. It is helpful for decision makers to consider the situation of balance of interests. (4) Aiming at the increasingly prominent problems of energy and environment system, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of energy system in Tangshan City, taking into account the development of renewable energy as a whole, the optimization and management model of energy system in Tangshan City based on interval fuzzy mixed integer programming is established to obtain the allocation of energy resources and transform technology. The model can help decision makers to balance the interaction among system cost, energy supply security and environmental requirements, and can be used to guide the optimal management of regional energy systems with renewable energy sources. Complexity and uncertainty exist in the system. The energy system planning model of coupling renewable energy consumption from different perspectives can provide scientific decision-making scheme and forward-looking suggestions for energy system management under complex conditions. It is helpful to promote the development of renewable energy, promote the optimization and upgrading of energy structure and realize the energy system. Sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TK01;TM73

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