地方电力调度管理中的风险及其对策研究

发布时间：2018-08-30 07:53

【摘要】：伴随着国民经济迅速发展的,是用电需求量急剧的上升,电网的发展也随之到了一个新的高度。但与此同时,电网的管理问题也日益突出。因此,如何保障电网稳定运行——即如何提高调度管理水平就成为电网风险管理中的现实问题。本论文通过对地方电力调度管理的风险研究现状分析,对风险管理紧密相关的有关风险的基本概念、种类、和辨识方法以及风险辨识步骤与风险度量等理论性问题进行探讨和分析。通过分析和研究,为科学的制定地方电力调度风险管理流程提供了依据,也为之后将风险管理理论与实践的结合,最后提出有效解决地方电力调度风险管理的方法提供了方向。再者,在风险管理理论的研究过程中,以风险管理的内容多样化、实施环境多样化、对象多样化以及风险管理者的多样化为基础,本文准备从风险度量这一视角出发,就风险发生的可能性进行理论分析,同时较为详细的分析了对地方电力调度的风险管理所具有的共性特点,指出地方电力调度管理中的特征包括了一次性、综合性、多变性、复杂性、交叉性、不确定性等的具体含义。在此基础上,本文从地方电力调度管理中已经发生过的事故案例为例,再根据这些案例中存在的风险进行分析辨识。其中,为了能深入研究和解决风险管理中的实际问题,分析内容除了包含有风险辨识的范围与对象外,还包括了风险源的辨识依据以及电力调度管理中常见危险源的表象等问题。然后,根据分析出的问题,在明确风险管理意义的基础上,针对目前较为常用的儿种管理方法进行分析讨论,其中包括有专家调查法、概率统计法、仿真模拟法等方法。正是通过对这些方法的应用,对地方电力调度管理中的危险源分别在管理内容和管理原则、实际情况、管理系统和具体问题的相应措施以及员工奖惩考核办法等方面进行了探讨。同时为今后其他从事此类研究的研究者提供了可参考的范例。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand for electricity is rising sharply, and the development of power grid has also reached a new height. But at the same time, the management of the power grid is also increasingly prominent. Therefore, how to ensure the stable operation of power network-that is, how to improve the level of dispatching management has become a practical problem in power network risk management. This paper analyzes the current situation of risk research on local electric power dispatching management, and analyzes the basic concepts and types of risk which are closely related to risk management. The theoretical problems such as identification method, risk identification steps and risk measurement are discussed and analyzed. Through the analysis and research, it provides the basis for making the local electric power dispatching risk management flow scientifically, also provides the direction for the combination of the risk management theory and the practice, and finally puts forward the effective method to solve the local electric power dispatching risk management. Furthermore, in the research process of risk management theory, based on the diversification of risk management content, implementation environment, object diversity and risk management diversification, this paper intends to start from the perspective of risk measurement. This paper makes a theoretical analysis on the possibility of the occurrence of the risk, and at the same time, analyzes in detail the common features of the risk management of the local electric power dispatching, and points out that the characteristics of the local electric power dispatching management include one-off, comprehensive and variable. The specific meaning of complexity, intersectionality, uncertainty, etc. On this basis, this paper takes the accident cases that have occurred in the local electric power dispatching management as an example, and then analyzes and identifies the risks in these cases. In order to deeply study and solve the practical problems in risk management, the content of the analysis includes the scope and object of risk identification. It also includes the identification basis of risk sources and the representation of common hazard sources in power dispatching management. Then, according to the analysis of the problems, on the basis of defining the significance of risk management, this paper analyzes and discusses the current more commonly used child species management methods, including the expert survey method, probability statistics method, simulation method and so on. It is through the application of these methods that the management content and management principle, the actual situation of the hazard sources in the local electric power dispatching management are respectively discussed. The management system, the corresponding measures of specific problems and the evaluation methods of staff rewards and punishments are discussed. It also provides reference examples for other researchers engaged in such research in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM73

【相似文献】